U.S. Drought Monitor

[cycloneye]

Here is NOAA'S latest drought outlook and it does not look good for the southern states,thanks to the Moderate to Strong La Nina.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... ought.html

[cycloneye]

Parts of Puerto Rico enter for the first time this year on the monitor watch.

[Shoshana]

Here we go again...

[cycloneye]

The drought conditions in the U.S. continue to expand in this latest update.

[Stephanie]

The South always seems to be in a drought!

[vbhoutex]

The South always seems to be in a drought!

How well I know! Doing the weekly watering to try and get the grass to grow after the cold dry winter.

[Jagno]

I posted this in the SW TX/LA thread but I just noticed this specific thread for drought monitoring.

Please take this drought seriously. My neice in Pasadena lost her home last night due to an inconsiderate motorist who tossed a cigarette out of their window. Thankfully she was at work and the baby was at a babysitters house so their lives were spared. The Fire Marshal's initial investigation showed the fire started at this cigarette butt near the road and travel across the lawn and engulfed the 2 story home. She was leasing the home and wasn't aware that you could get "Renters Insurance" so she's starting over from scratch.

I smoke and this has certainly woken me up to realizing just how important it is to use that little ashtray that I bought for my truck instead of absentmindedly tossing the butt out of the window. It makes you wonder if your actions may have ruined some young families life.

[Shoshana]

The South always seems to be in a drought!

How well I know! Doing the weekly watering to try and get the grass to grow after the cold dry winter.

We haven't started watering. Our grass pretty much died last year when we went to once a week watering and now it's mostly weeds. But... the weeds are drying and i don't want tinder! So we'll start 2x week watering... soon.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest discussion by the U.S drought monitor folks.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

National Drought Summary -- May 10, 2011

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

South Atlantic Seaboard and Eastern Gulf Coast States: Many locations from central South Carolina northward through south-central Virginia recorded 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain last week, as did parts of west-central and southeast Florida. This precipitation was of some limited benefit, and resulted in no improvement in Drought Monitor classifications.

Through the remainder of the region from Virginia southward through Florida and southwestward through Mississippi, only light precipitation was observed, if any. As a result, the Drought Monitor classifications deteriorated, particularly along and near the Gulf Coast, where surface moisture declined markedly. Exteme drought (D3) was introduced in part of southeastern Georgia, and extended slightly southward along the southeastern coast of Florida. Severe drought was expanded to include southeastern Alabama, the western Florida panhandle, most of the southern half of Georgia, and coastal east-central Florida. In addition, abnormally dry conditions expanded northwestward in northeast Georgia and western South Carolina. For the last 3 months, rainfall was 8 to locally more than 12 inches below normal across southern sections of Mississippi and Alabama, and through the western Florida panhandle.

Lower Mississippi Valley: Although little or no precipitation fell across this region, a review of current and forthcoming conditions led to drastic improvements in parts of Louisiana. Rainfall has been markedly below normal throughout the southern half of the state on time scales ranging from 3 to 12 months or more; however, any effects from these deficits are quickly fading along the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers as well as the wetlands that cover much of the southeastern parts of the state, where major to historic flooding is anticipated in some areas. Water levels were rising as of this writing in a large swath covering areas from the Atchafalaya River Basin eastward through areas immediately adjacent to the Mississippi River, and major to historic floodwaters will encroach on these areas through the next 7 days or more. Also, increasing water levels through most of southeastern Louisiana to the west and south of Lake Pontchartrain have relieved or soon will relieve any drought effects that had been felt there.

Meanwhile, a sharp gradient exists between these areas of flooding or wetland and lands that are typically dry to the west, north, and east. From these parts of Louisiana through most of the rest of the state, drought remains a serious issue, and conditions persisted or worsened last week. D1 to D4 conditions prevailed, with the most serious drought covering west-central Louisiana, where large moisture shortfalls date back well over a year. Generally 10 to 15 inches of rain fell during the last six months, which was 12 to locally 20 inches below normal. The D4 area expanded slightly eastward last week, and D3 conditions pushed into southwestern Louisiana; otherwise, drought severity was essentially unchanged.

Central and Southern Plains: Only a few isolated sites in this region recorded any measurable rainfall last week as drought intensified in many areas. Some improvement was introduced in northeastern Texas and immediately adjacent sections of Oklahoma and Louisiana based on a re-assessment of the effects of the prior week’s rainfall. Throughout the rest of the region, large areas of drought intensification were introduced as a result of another dry week. D1 to D2 conditions expanded northward and eastward in Kansas, but conditions were much worse farther south, where D4 conditions dramatically expanded across southwestern Oklahoma, large parts of Texas, and southeastern New Mexico. Precipitation over the last 90 days was 8 to 12 inches below normal throughout southeastern and east-central Texas, and in parts of southeastern New Mexico, no measurable precipitation has been recorded for the last 3 to (in a few isolated spots) 6 months.

The drought has brought a variety of serious impacts to much of the region. Water supplies are declining, and in a few areas water restrictions have been imposed, across the southwestern half of Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. Fire danger has been extremely high for repeated and extended periods in areas from south-central New Mexico and the Big Bend of Texas northeastward, occasionally reaching as far as southwestern Kansas, adjacent Colorado, and the western Oklahoma Panhandle. So far this year, wildfires have consumed more than 2 million acres in Texas alone.

In addition, agriculture has been seriously affected. In Texas, 76 percent of the winter wheat crop was in poor or very poor condition in Texas, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service, as was 50 percent of the crop in Colorado and 41 percent in Kansas. Pastures and rangelands have also experienced serious impacts because of the drought. About 79 percent of such areas were in poor or very poor condition across New Mexico, as were 77 percent in Texas, 49 percent in Oklahoma, and 48 percent in Colorado.

The Southwest: Precipitation was negligible to non-existent last week in southwestern Colorado, most of Arizona, and western New Mexico last week; however, normal amounts are quite low this time of year, so the D0 to D3 areas remained unchanged.

Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico: Several inches of precipitation fell on the Alaskan panhandle last week, with more modest totals, generally less than an inch, reported in the remainder of the abnormally dry region. D0 conditions remained unchanged from last week.

Heavy precipitation, exceeding 5 inches in a few spots, fell on portions of the Big Island last week. This precipitation, considered in conjunction with the substantial rainfall observed in many areas during prior weeks, led to a reduction in extent and severity of the D0 to D3 conditions that had enveloped central and western sections of the island. D3 conditions were eliminated in the northern reaches, and significant reductions in the coverage of D0 to D2 conditions occurred in northern and eastern parts of the dry regions. The only exception was in the northeastern parts of the island, where slowly increasing moisture shortfalls led to the development of abnormally dry conditions.

Farther northwest through the islands in the central part of the state, only light precipitation was observed, and areas of dryness and drought remained unchanged.

Looking Ahead: During May 12 - 16, 2011, moderate to locally heavy rains will fall on some currently-dry parts of the country. The heaviest amounts, 1 to 2 inches, are forecast for central and northeastern Colorado and much of Nebraska. In addition, beneficial rains of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected away from the coast in eastern Texas and across northern and western Louisiana. Generally 0.5 to 1.0 inches are anticipated in the dry areas along the Atlantic Seaboard, though less is expected in most of Florida. Other areas shouldn’t expect much in the way of relief. Less than 0.5 inch is expected along the Gulf Coast, and at most one-quarter of an inch is forecast from roughly the westwern halves of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas westward through New Mexico and Arizona.

The outlook for May 17 - 21, 2011 brings enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation the dry areas in the Carolinas and Virginia, across southern Florida, and in the Great Plains from central Texas northward through eastern Colorado and Nebraska. In contrast, the odds favor below-median precipitation along the central Gulf Coast, and from the southwestern and western tiers of Texas westward through most of New Mexico. In addition, the entire state of Alaska has enhanced chances for sub-median precipitation. In other currently-dry sections of the country, neither abnormally wet nor abnormally dry conditions are favored, and essentially no forecast is made for these areas.

Whole U.S graphic.Puerto Rico has been taken out of the yellow color.



Look at Texas.

[vbhoutex]

Even thought we have had rain in Texas today, I don't expect it to change the map much, if any next week. We didn't get enough rain to break a drought, at least not here in SE TX. If this keeps up we'll just change our climate type to "Texas desert".

[Shoshana]

We got less than an inch at our house in Austin. When will this La Nina go away?!?@?

[vbhoutex]

We got less than an inch at our house in Austin. When will this La Nina go away?!?@?

La Nina is fading away and there will be neutral conditions by the end of summer according to most forecasts.

[southerngale]

Even thought we have had rain in Texas today, I don't expect it to change the map much, if any next week. We didn't get enough rain to break a drought, at least not here in SE TX. If this keeps up we'll just change our climate type to "Texas desert".

1/3 of an inch won't even put a dent in it. Our part of Texas didn't get squat! I wouldn't be surprised to see the remaining areas in SE TX that are in Extreme join their neighbors in Exceptional.

I am glad that some people in Texas got a decent amount of rain. Hopefully, everyone will soon.

[Rgv20]

No relief insight for south texas at least for the remainder of May

[Stephanie]

Even thought we have had rain in Texas today, I don't expect it to change the map much, if any next week. We didn't get enough rain to break a drought, at least not here in SE TX. If this keeps up we'll just change our climate type to "Texas desert".

1/3 of an inch won't even put a dent in it. Our part of Texas didn't get squat! I wouldn't be surprised to see the remaining areas in SE TX that are in Extreme join their neighbors in Exceptional.

I am glad that some people in Texas got a decent amount of rain. Hopefully, everyone will soon.

Ditto.

[cycloneye]

National Drought Summary -- May 24, 2011

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Weekly Weather Summary: An unsettled and stormy weather pattern dominated much of the lower 48 States, unfortunately highlighted by a deadly and destructive bout of tornadoes in the Nation’s midsection. The southwest Missouri city of Joplin took a direct hit on May 22 from an EF-5 twister, taking the lives of at least 120 people and injuring at least 750, with numerous people still missing. Two days later, additional tornadoes touched down in Oklahoma and Arkansas, killing at least a dozen people. This stormy weather pattern also dumped moderate to heavy rains across much of the northern half of the U.S. and on much of the Plains, greatly easing drought conditions in the south-central and central Plains. Unfortunately, little or no rain fell along the extreme southern tier of States, from southern Arizona into southern Texas and eastward along the Gulf and southern Atlantic Coasts. Temperatures averaged below-normal in the West, north-central Plains, and Southeast, and above-normal in the southern Plains, upper Midwest, Northeast, and Alaska.

Important Note: The drought depiction for south-central Louisiana has been changed this week to show the areas of drought in the Atchafalaya Basin. As a result, this does not take into account the areas of flooding that were released into this basin from the Morganza Spillway courtesy of the lower Mississippi River flooding. The actual flooded areas have been less extensive and slower to spread than initially forecast; however, the amount of flooding is still significant.

For the latest text information about river levels in the region:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmrfc- ... erforecast

For satellite images (via ASTER on NASA’s Terra satellite) of the Morganza Spillway:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/v ... rc=iotdrss

Upper Great Lakes Region: Light rains (0.5 to 1 inch) was reported in northeastern Minnesota and the UP of Michigan, with heavier totals just to the south of the D0 areas. Stream flows and soil moisture indices have shown some improvement recently, but this area still could use a good widespread soaking to eliminate the lingering long-term (12- to 18-months) dryness.

South Atlantic Seaboard and Eastern Gulf Coast States: Little or no rain fell on most of the drought-affected areas (southern and eastern Mississippi, most of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida, and eastern sections of the Carolinas) as moderate to heavy precipitation (1.5 to 4 inches) was recorded just to the north. There was enough rain, however, in central Virginia (0.75 to 1.25 inches) to trim away some of the western D0 edge as deficits have gradually been replaced with near-normal or small surpluses during the past 90-days. At Norfolk, VA, and Elizabeth City, NC, however, 90-day deficiencies were 4.08 and 3.64 inches, respectively, and D1(A) remained. Similar deficits existed on the Delmarva Peninsula of Maryland as D1 was added, while D1 was removed just to the south on Virginia’s Delmarva Peninsula as 2 inches of rain fell earlier in the week. Farther south, light rains (0.2 to 0.7 inches) maintained conditions in the central Carolinas, but an H Impact Line was added to delineate adequate short-term conditions from longer-term shortages in south-central North Carolina and north-central South Carolina.

In contrast, subnormal rainfall continued across the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic States. The last week that this region received widespread, soaking precipitation was in late March and early April, and conditions continued to deteriorate. USGS stream flows at 1-, 7-, 14-, and 28-days continued to drop, and many in southern sections of Mississippi and Alabama, most of Georgia, northern Florida, and parts of the Carolinas were in the lower tenth percentile as of May 24. According to USDA/NASS state reports, topsoil moisture rated short or very short increased this week to 82, 75,54, 48, and 47 percent, in Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Alabama, respectively. Similarly, pasture and range lands rated poor or very poor rose to 41 and 47 percent in Florida and Georgia. In southern Florida, the combination of short-term dryness (90-days: 25 to 50 percent of normal rainfall) and long-term deficits (since October 1: Miami 8.83 inches; West Palm Beach 21.39 inches; Ft. Lauderdale 20.97 inches; Naples 11.52 inches) have greatly lowered river and lake levels and some wells. Lake Okeechobee stood at 10.41 feet (normal 13.19 feet) on May 22, below the critical line for water shortages. Accordingly, D0 through D3 was incrementally increased northward in Mississippi, Alabama, and into western Georgia and northern Florida, and in extreme southern Florida (D3 in Monroe and Dade counties) in response to the growing short-term deficiencies.

Lower Mississippi Valley: As mentioned in the above “Important Note”, the opening of the Morganza Spillway on May 15 (last opened in 1973) had projected to flood much of the Atchafalaya River basin in south-central Louisiana by now. But due to the basin’s hydrological complexity and uncertainty, especially in the southern end, the rate and extent of flooding was less than initially forecast. Where it has flooded, however, the flooding is still significant. In contrast, where the flood waters had not yet reached, U.S. Forestry officials reported that many marshes were dry with fish kills from lack of oxygen in the remaining pools of water in coastal parishes of southwest and south Louisiana. Therefore, due to the severity of the ongoing drought and the lack of a recent image of actual flooded land, the area of drought depiction was returned to all of Louisiana. And of course, the flooded regions of the Atchafalaya basin (not depicted) would be drought free.

Elsewhere across southern Louisiana, little or no rain fell once again. Light rains (0.5 to 1 inch) occurred in northeastern Louisiana and southeastern Arkansas, while 1.5 to 2.5 inches fell on western Louisiana and eastern Texas. Unfortunately, additional heavy rains (2 to 8 inches) inundated the already-saturated upper Delta region (western and northern Arkansas, southern Missouri), adding more water into the swollen main stems of the Mississippi River. The rainfall did provide some basis for slight drought reduction in eastern Texas, western Louisiana, and southern Arkansas as a 1-category improvement was made to areas with weekly totals of 2 inches or more. However, large long-term (12-months) deficits (15 to 20 inches) remained in portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley, and were between 25 to 35 inches at 18-months.

Central and Southern Plains: Numerous and widespread showers and thunderstorms, including many cells that became severe with tornadic activity (e.g. Joplin, MO), dropped copious amounts of rain (2 to 10 inches) on parts of northeastern Texas, most of Oklahoma (except the Panhandle), much of Kansas (except the southwest), Nebraska (and northward), and parts of Colorado. Needless to say, many areas of drought (D0 to D4) were improved by 1-category, and in some places, by 2-categories, especially where more than 4 inches fell.

In Texas, eastern sections were improved by 1-category where 1.5 inches or more rain was measured as the rains should improve forage grass growth and conditions. In northeastern Texas along the Red River, a 1-category improvement meant that some locations were finally out of drought (D-nothing). In east-central Texas (e.g. Robertson County), less improvement was made as hydrological conditions were worse than other areas to the north and east. In northern Texas, 2 to 3 inches of rain along the Oklahoma border eased drought by 1-category, but farther west near Childress, D4 remained as deficits were large, and rainfall totals were less. Where little or no rain fell (southern and western Texas), D4 was expanded into Brazoria, Bexar, and Wilson counties. USGS stream flows continued to be in the lower tenth percentile in southern and south-central Texas, but improving to near-normal in the northeast. According to USDA/NASS, Texas winter wheat was rated 76 percent poor or very poor, while similarly-rated pastures and ranges stood at 73 percent.

In Oklahoma and Kansas, one and even some two-category improvements were made where the amounts were the greatest. In Oklahoma and Kansas, a 1-category improvement was made to any D0-D3 area that received 1.5 inches or more, and a 2-category swing was made where rainfall exceeded 4 inches. In southwest Oklahoma where 2 to 6 inches fell, only a 1-category improvement to the D4 area was made as soils were so dry (down to at least 8 feet) that time is needed to see if the soil moisture recharge holds out. In Harmon County, the rains (1 to 2 inches) did little to moisten the soil profile except to the top 2 inches, and this area remained in D4. Where little or no rain fell on western sections of Oklahoma and Kansas, drought persisted, and in some instances increased. D4 was expanded northward into Ellis and Harper counties where no summer crops are expected following the failure of the winter wheat crop. In the Panhandle, D4 was increased in Cimarron and Texas Counties as less than 40 percent of normal precipitation has occurred over the past 180 days. USDA/NASS winter wheat and pasture conditions rated poor and very poor for Oklahoma were 80 and 42 percent, while Kansas was 55 and 36 percent.

In Nebraska and Colorado, additional moderate to heavy (1.5 to 4 inches) rains erased D0 across Nebraska except for a few small pockets where medium- and long-term shortages (at both 90-days and since October 1; less than 70 percent) lingered. This included extreme southeastern and south-central sections of the state. Farther west in Colorado, another wet week brought 2 to 3 inches of precipitation to northern and western portions of the state, providing a second week of additional improvements to the moisture conditions. A 1-category reduction in drought (D0 to D2) was made across northeastern Colorado where 2 to 3 inches fell, but with lower amounts to the south, D2 and D3 remained, especially in the southeast. A slight expansion of D2 into the San Luis Valley in south-central Colorado as winter precipitation was lower than surrounding regions. Even with the recent rains, USDA/NASS pasture and winter wheat conditions rated poor or very poor stood at 48 and 40 percent for Colorado.

The Southwest: Although little or no rain fell on southern sections of the Southwest (southern Arizona, southern and eastern New Mexico, west Texas, southeastern Colorado), unsettled weather did make it far enough south into the Four Corners Region to drop unseasonably heavy precipitation (0.5 to 2 inches) on parts of central Arizona, northwestern New Mexico, southwestern Colorado, and southeastern Utah). Flagstaff, AZ, was now at normal for the year with the latest round of precipitation. Even heavier amounts were reported north of this area. As a result, some slight improvements to D0 to D2 edges were made in central Arizona, D0 and D1 were trimmed in northwestern New Mexico, and D0 was removed from southwestern Colorado. In southwest Texas, another week of rain (0.5 inches) in western Crockett and northeastern Pecos counties slightly reduced D4 there.

Hawaii and Alaska: Scattered light to moderate (0.5 to 2 inches) showers fell on the eastern (Big Island) and western (Kauai and Oahu) Hawaiian Islands while little or no rain was reported in the central (Maui, Molokai, Lanai) islands. On Maui, abnormal dryness was expanded to cover the rest of the island as low irrigation ditches were reported in eastern sections, along with lower yields at the Upcounty Agriculture park due to lower irrigation flows. Reduced forage has also led to an encroachment of deer onto farms and pastures. In contrast, the Big Island saw some improvement with recent rains. The D2 area was split in half as the mid-slopes received good April rains, and the pastures recovered. Unfortunately, the vegetation did not recover in the lower elevations near Kawaihae and upper elevations near Pohakuloa as D2 remained. On the western Big Island lower Kona slopes, ample rains have eliminated lingering D0 as farmers in much better shape than last year. Lastly, the southern Big Island improved from D1 to D0 near Kapapala and Pahala area with continued shower activity. Elsewhere, conditions stayed the same.

In Alaska, light to moderate precipitation (0.3 to 1 inch) fell on portions of the south-central and southeastern coasts, and on west-central interior sections. Locally, 2 to 4 inches of rain was observed on Kodiak Island and on the eastern Kenai Peninsula, but amounts were not large enough to eliminate long-term deficits. In the short-term (30- to 90-days), precipitation in southwestern and southeastern Alaska is close to or above-normal, however, in the long-term (since September 1, 2010, the start of the cold season), much larger deficits have accumulated. This included departures of -10 to -30 inches since September 1 along the normally wetter coastal locations. Accordingly, the D0(H) area was slightly modified to depict the larger long-term deficits.

Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (May 26-30), a cold front will gradually push eastward out of the Nation’s midsection and off the East Coast later this week, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the eastern third of the Nation. Meanwhile, a series of Pacific storm systems will impact the Northwest and track into the northern Plains and upper Midwest, dropping light to moderate precipitation across the northern third of the U.S. Unfortunately, the southern tier of States will see little or no precipitation, although the Southeast may receive some light rain from the frontal passage. Shower activity may increase over the weekend in southern Florida. Above-normal readings will gradually spread from the southern Plains and South and push northward into the Midwest and East, while the West remains cool. Highs near 100 deg F may occur in parts of the Southeast by May 31.

The 6-10 day CPC outlook (May 31-June 4) calls for enhanced odds of subnormal precipitation from the central and southern Rockies across the south-central Plains and eastward throughout most of the Southeast and Atlantic Coast States. Above-normal precipitation is expected in the Northwest and upper Midwest. Subnormal temperatures are forecast for the Far West while unseasonable warmth envelops the eastern half of the Nation. In Alaska, wetter and warmer weather is probable in the southwest while drier and cooler conditions are expected in the east.

[Shoshana]

A bit over 85% of Texas is in D3-D4 ...

[Shoshana]

Well the night of rain was lovely, but didn't break the drought.

The good news - less of Texas is in drought. 3.33% isn't in drought.

The bad news - the dry parts are drier. 70.61 in D4, 91.31 D3-D4

In Louisiana, 100% is in drought. 64.94 D4, 90.12 D3-D4

NM is also 100% in drought. 49.09 D4, 71.15 D3-D4

[cycloneye]

The latest update in Texas.

[gboudx]

I'm in that small white part in NTX where there is no drought. Vegetation is still lush and green. We're fortunate.