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Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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srainhoutx
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
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Ivanhater
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Update from Wxman57 this morning..should open a few eyes 
Edited by wxman57:
The first image below is the GFS ensemble forecast of 500mb (mid level) height anomalies valid Tuesday evening, February 1st. The map shows building high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest and a deepening low over the eastern Hudson Bay region extending all the way southwest to west of Texas.
The suggestion here is that the building ridge will drive very cold air southward out of Canada but that the trof axis will remain west of the cold air next Tue-Wed. This is a setup for snow across the Deep South.
The European version of the same map has an even deeper area of low pressure west of the cold air across the southwestern U.S. next Tuesday evening. The European model is more bullish on southern stream energy with the cold air in place, meaning a greater chance for Deep South snow next week.
Edited by wxman57:
The first image below is the GFS ensemble forecast of 500mb (mid level) height anomalies valid Tuesday evening, February 1st. The map shows building high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest and a deepening low over the eastern Hudson Bay region extending all the way southwest to west of Texas.
The suggestion here is that the building ridge will drive very cold air southward out of Canada but that the trof axis will remain west of the cold air next Tue-Wed. This is a setup for snow across the Deep South.
The European version of the same map has an even deeper area of low pressure west of the cold air across the southwestern U.S. next Tuesday evening. The European model is more bullish on southern stream energy with the cold air in place, meaning a greater chance for Deep South snow next week.
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Michael
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011
/ISSUED 450 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011/
DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH MANY VARIABLES
POINTING AT DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. LIGHT RAIN THUS FAR HAS CONFINED
MAINLY AS VIRGA...WITH NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY ENTRENCHED BELOW H7. EARLY MORNING TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW
TO FALL MUCH PAST THE MID 3OS RANGE...THEREBY HELPING TO KEEP ANY
PRECIP AS LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS W OF NRN AL. OTHER THAN
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THE MORNING PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER. TEMPS
SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM TOWARD THE LOWER 50S LATER TODAY
UNDER A SW FLOW REGIME...THEREBY HELPING TO KEEP THE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE. LITTLE IF ANY LIGHT RAIN IS XPCTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS
AS THE LOWER LEVELS BEGIN THE EVAP COOLING PROCESS.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD THE SFC LOW OVER THE MO VALLEY...WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ONGOING. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT THIS SFC LOW GETTING LIFTED INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT OF THE NWRN STATES CARVES ITS
WAY INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND W OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WITH THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS MORNING`S FORECAST THEN SHIFTS BACK TOWARD
THE SRN PLAINS WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OUT OF SE TX IS XPCTED
TO DEVELOP...AIDED BY THE ONCOMING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AS THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY AREA...THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE A MORE ERLY TRACK ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF REGION ON TUE. AMPLE GULF MOISTURE IS FED NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST
MODELS. THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR DIVING SWD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIFFERS. A COLDER SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW TUE EVENING...AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO
LIFT TOWARD THE NE. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE INTO POSSIBLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
IN CONTRAST...SOME DELAY OF THE COLD AIR SURGE/WARMER SOLUTION TUE
EVENING WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW INITIALLY
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY CUT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN HALF AS WELL...OR MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE FORECAST TREND WITH YESTERDAY`S AFTERNOON PACKAGE SUGGESTED MORE
OF A WARMER SCENARIO..AND BASED ON THE OUTPUT OF CERTAIN COMPUTER
MODELS THIS MORNING...THIS SAME RATIONAL CAN BE APPLIED. WITH THIS
SAID...WILL PRETTY MUCH FOLLOW THE SAME FORECAST TREND FROM SUN WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE...AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HRS BEFORE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS SRN MID TN TUE EVENING...WITH PREDOM RAIN ELSEWHERE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THEN STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL PRECIP
BECOMING SNOW HEADING INTO WED MORNING.
OVERALL TEMPS/LOWS LOOK TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING EARLY
WED MORNING. THIS...COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION...LOOKS
TO RESULT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE
AL COULD CERTAINLY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SNOWFALL
WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WED AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTING SFC
LOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS QUIET FOR NOW...WITH A
COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS/REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SURGES SWEEPING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST REGION THU AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011
/ISSUED 450 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011/
DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH MANY VARIABLES
POINTING AT DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. LIGHT RAIN THUS FAR HAS CONFINED
MAINLY AS VIRGA...WITH NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY ENTRENCHED BELOW H7. EARLY MORNING TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW
TO FALL MUCH PAST THE MID 3OS RANGE...THEREBY HELPING TO KEEP ANY
PRECIP AS LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS W OF NRN AL. OTHER THAN
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THE MORNING PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER. TEMPS
SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM TOWARD THE LOWER 50S LATER TODAY
UNDER A SW FLOW REGIME...THEREBY HELPING TO KEEP THE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE. LITTLE IF ANY LIGHT RAIN IS XPCTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS
AS THE LOWER LEVELS BEGIN THE EVAP COOLING PROCESS.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD THE SFC LOW OVER THE MO VALLEY...WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ONGOING. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT THIS SFC LOW GETTING LIFTED INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT OF THE NWRN STATES CARVES ITS
WAY INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND W OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WITH THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS MORNING`S FORECAST THEN SHIFTS BACK TOWARD
THE SRN PLAINS WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OUT OF SE TX IS XPCTED
TO DEVELOP...AIDED BY THE ONCOMING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AS THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY AREA...THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE A MORE ERLY TRACK ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF REGION ON TUE. AMPLE GULF MOISTURE IS FED NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST
MODELS. THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR DIVING SWD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIFFERS. A COLDER SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW TUE EVENING...AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO
LIFT TOWARD THE NE. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE INTO POSSIBLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
IN CONTRAST...SOME DELAY OF THE COLD AIR SURGE/WARMER SOLUTION TUE
EVENING WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW INITIALLY
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY CUT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN HALF AS WELL...OR MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE FORECAST TREND WITH YESTERDAY`S AFTERNOON PACKAGE SUGGESTED MORE
OF A WARMER SCENARIO..AND BASED ON THE OUTPUT OF CERTAIN COMPUTER
MODELS THIS MORNING...THIS SAME RATIONAL CAN BE APPLIED. WITH THIS
SAID...WILL PRETTY MUCH FOLLOW THE SAME FORECAST TREND FROM SUN WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE...AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HRS BEFORE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NW. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS SRN MID TN TUE EVENING...WITH PREDOM RAIN ELSEWHERE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THEN STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL PRECIP
BECOMING SNOW HEADING INTO WED MORNING.
OVERALL TEMPS/LOWS LOOK TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING EARLY
WED MORNING. THIS...COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION...LOOKS
TO RESULT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SRN MID TN LEADING INTO NE
AL COULD CERTAINLY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SNOWFALL
WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WED AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTING SFC
LOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS QUIET FOR NOW...WITH A
COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS/REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SURGES SWEEPING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST REGION THU AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
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northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Ivanhater wrote:Update from Wxman57 this morning..should open a few eyes
Edited by wxman57:
The first image below is the GFS ensemble forecast of 500mb (mid level) height anomalies valid Tuesday evening, February 1st. The map shows building high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest and a deepening low over the eastern Hudson Bay region extending all the way southwest to west of Texas.
The suggestion here is that the building ridge will drive very cold air southward out of Canada but that the trof axis will remain west of the cold air next Tue-Wed. This is a setup for snow across the Deep South.
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... yNA216.gif
The European version of the same map has an even deeper area of low pressure west of the cold air across the southwestern U.S. next Tuesday evening. The European model is more bullish on southern stream energy with the cold air in place, meaning a greater chance for Deep South snow next week.
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... yNA216.gif
Still a week or so out from now, but we shall see how this all plays out for sure. Certainly, a set up like what these latest long range runs from the model guidance are showing bodes very well for those in the Deep South who are wanting more wintry precipitation. I'll be watching for consistency with this with the model guidance, especially as we get later into this week.
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Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11162
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
12z Euro for this weeks storm
note from wxman57: I fixed the image
note from wxman57: I fixed the image
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Michael
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Brent
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
I'm very close to the 1 inch zone in the 2nd one...
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#neversummer
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Brent
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1258 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-251115-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1258 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITHIN A NARROW BAND...BUT THE EXACT
POSITION OF THIS BAND REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
THE SNOW COMES TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NARROW BAND AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1258 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-251115-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1258 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITHIN A NARROW BAND...BUT THE EXACT
POSITION OF THIS BAND REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
THE SNOW COMES TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NARROW BAND AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
$$
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#neversummer
-
Metalicwx220
-
Ynotndalton
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 43
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 8:13 pm
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Seeing the setup for a snowstorm the first week of Feb.. Gulf low coupled with strong high to north with large cold air mass. Just will depend on the track of the low.. supressed or not. Every run of gfs shows a little different scenario.. try looking at the snow maps for the last few gfs runs you'll see it in one of them.
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
311 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...AND
GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-250515-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.A.0002.110126T0600Z-110126T1800Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
311 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED: RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND THEN
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...AND THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME HEAVIER NARROW
BANDING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH SPECIFIC SNOW AMOUNTS STILL EXISTS.
* OTHER HAZARDS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* IMPACTS: SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ICE ON AREA
ROADS...GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SOME SNOW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
KDW
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
311 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...AND
GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-250515-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.A.0002.110126T0600Z-110126T1800Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
311 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED: RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND THEN
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...AND THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME HEAVIER NARROW
BANDING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH SPECIFIC SNOW AMOUNTS STILL EXISTS.
* OTHER HAZARDS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* IMPACTS: SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ICE ON AREA
ROADS...GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SOME SNOW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
KDW
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#neversummer
-
Ynotndalton
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 43
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 8:13 pm
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Wow wasn't expecting that, NWS peachtree just stated didn't expect any accum over north ga even here in extreme N ga.. hmmm.. 4 counties to the right of a Winter storm watch in the same path expecting no accum.. wonder who is right.. Hunstville or Peachtree
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
328 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN INTENSIFYING UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX...PV ANOMALY...WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT QG ASCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GREATEST UPWARD MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA...INCREASING FROM 17 MB/HR NORTHWEST AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...TO
30 MB/HR NORTHEAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. 500-MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE -25C TO -28C
RANGE. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z WEDNESDAY...AND PUSHING EAST OF I-65 AFTER 06Z.
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT CROSS SECTIONS DO
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...UPRIGHT
CONVECTION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION RATES/AMOUNTS GREATER THAN THOSE SUGGESTED BY THE
MODELS.
WITH THIS BEING A BORDERLINE CASE TEMPERATURE WISE...AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW...SNOW BURSTS...WHERE THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF SNOW BURSTS SURROUNDED BY LIGHT
RAIN. AT ANY RATE...A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR OUR
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
James Spann's map:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
328 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN INTENSIFYING UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX...PV ANOMALY...WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT QG ASCENT TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GREATEST UPWARD MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALABAMA...INCREASING FROM 17 MB/HR NORTHWEST AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...TO
30 MB/HR NORTHEAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. 500-MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE -25C TO -28C
RANGE. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z WEDNESDAY...AND PUSHING EAST OF I-65 AFTER 06Z.
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT CROSS SECTIONS DO
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...UPRIGHT
CONVECTION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION RATES/AMOUNTS GREATER THAN THOSE SUGGESTED BY THE
MODELS.
WITH THIS BEING A BORDERLINE CASE TEMPERATURE WISE...AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW...SNOW BURSTS...WHERE THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF SNOW BURSTS SURROUNDED BY LIGHT
RAIN. AT ANY RATE...A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR OUR
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
James Spann's map:
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#neversummer
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Ynotndalton
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- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 8:13 pm
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
What i've been thinking all along... heavier precip will be big flakes surrounded by drizzle and light rain..
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38107
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
351 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAINLY
ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALZ011-014-017-018-020-251000-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0002.110126T0600Z-110126T1800Z/
MARION-WINSTON-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CHEROKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...DOUBLE SPRINGS...ONEONTA...
GADSDEN...CENTRE
351 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BOTH A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON TUESDAY...EXITING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AS ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES ALONG THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...MAINLY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE SHOULD DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GO
ABOVE FREEZING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
351 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAINLY
ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY...AND GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALZ011-014-017-018-020-251000-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0002.110126T0600Z-110126T1800Z/
MARION-WINSTON-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CHEROKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...DOUBLE SPRINGS...ONEONTA...
GADSDEN...CENTRE
351 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BOTH A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON TUESDAY...EXITING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AS ALL RAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES ALONG THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...MAINLY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE SHOULD DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GO
ABOVE FREEZING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38107
- Age: 37
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- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re:
zippity wrote:So, the good news is we'll have snow, and that it won't last for days and days like the last storm.
Thanks for the info!
LOL, I have to say after the last storm I'm glad. I only had ice here but it got very old with the roads being crap still 3 days later.
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#neversummer
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Ynotndalton
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 43
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 8:13 pm
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
NWS georgia isn't even mentioning snow in the HWO..
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MississippiWx
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- Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble
Getting a little too excited about something at 260 hours away. The GFS had been showing a major snowstorm for the South for the last five days or so and you see how it doesn't show it anymore. I'm not going to put much stock into anything the models show outside of 5 days, especially when there is no consensus.
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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