Texas Winter 2010-2011

[wall_cloud]

And all those cold GFS fans for the last few days can say goodbye to the ice storm.

GFS totally backs off.

How is that for nutz?

So what should we take from the GFS knowing that the Euro and the Canadian has a totally different scenario.

you should take that all model runs beyond 7 days are crap.

[wall_cloud]

Yeah. Most people are just reading these threads and not commenting. To the majority of people, the model maps mean nothing without an explanation. We were all at that level at one point. A brief (or long) explanation can really help others learn.

As for that 30% chance of snow for San Angelo, I saw the NWS forecaster for that area mention yesterday that the forecast could change and snow was possible, or something to that effect. Hope you get some!!

that was put into the 4 PM, midnight and 4 AM discussions from SJT. Not a complete surprise but still wasn't picked up until hours 36-48. Just goes to show you how little the models can tell even seasoned forecasters.

[utweather]

And all those cold GFS fans for the last few days can say goodbye to the ice storm.

GFS totally backs off.

How is that for nutz?

So what should we take from the GFS knowing that the Euro and the Canadian has a totally different scenario.

Hope the Euro keeps a stronger storm.

[Portastorm]

GFS has practically the same set up at the 500mb level as past runs but as stated above it cant decide what to do with the cold air. Understandable because its 7 to 10 days away.

You're right and if you will notice, the 12z GFS run has the polar vortex a little further east than the 0z run which, in turn, affects the trajectory of the Arctic airmass to come. Also, the 12z GFS run is a little faster with the upper level energy to our west than the 0z run.

Haven't had time to look at the ensembles but it wouldn't surprise me if they still look colder (than the operational run) and wet for Texas.

[vbhoutex]

Yep GFS has backed way off, shows at best a chilly rain early next week now for the deep south.

It always seems to do that around this time frame, only to begin trending back around 72 hours and then show a full fledged storm again by 24 hours. As some others have said, the really memorable storms tend to be depicted with a relatively high amount of consistency and agreement by the long range models, only to disappear at mid-range and then reappear at the short range.

Or it could just be cold rain or dry face slicing windchills. Patience, grasshopper.

[wxman22]

GFS has practically the same set up at the 500mb level as past runs but as stated above it cant decide what to do with the cold air. Understandable because its 7 to 10 days away.

You're right and if you will notice, the 12z GFS run has the polar vortex a little further east than the 0z run which, in turn, affects the trajectory of the Arctic airmass to come. Also, the 12z GFS run is a little faster with the upper level energy to our west than the 0z run.

Haven't had time to look at the ensembles but it wouldn't surprise me if they still look colder (than the operational run) and wet for Texas.

Yea they do look colder atleast the Ensemble mean does.

[gpsnowman]

To me, a novice, the models have been consistent enough to show that something will happen with this pattern. The past several days of posts have been encouraging in regards to winter weather possibilities for North Texas. We will see.

[orangeblood]

12Z Canadian looks really good at 180 hrs. 1052 high into Montana with energy digging into the southwest.

[txagwxman]

" Canadian---your my only hope."

[northtxboy]

The last little storm we had on Jan 9 didnt the gfs back off on that too? If I remeber right the euro was almost dead on but the gfs showed alomost nothing all the way to the day it happened.

[Tireman4]

" Canadian---your my only hope."

Will Txagwxman break out into "Oh Canada"? Stay tuned to S2K News and the Portastorm Weather Center.

[Portastorm]

Storm 2K News caught with the Portastorm Weather Center (PWC) director this morning and asked him about the 12z Canadian run and its likelihood of verifying.

"The Canadian has had the hot hand this winter season," the director said. "Normally I wouldn't take it too seriously but this year it is rocking the house. I mean, Canada has brought us a lot of great things like Neil Young, Pamela Anderson, Keanu Reeves, ice hockey, and maple syrup, so why wouldn't we consider the CMC model in the same regard?"

The director said the PWC remains bullish on a major winter storm for Texas in one week's time. "Don't you worry, when this is all said and done, I'll have Wxman57 doing snow angels outside of his office!"

[southerngale]

" Canadian---your my only hope."

Really? Based on comments here and elsewhere, I thought the Euro and Canadian, along with the GFS Ensembles and the Euro ensembles were still showing the possibility of wintry precip, and/or the setup that could bring it. Please correct me if I'm wrong, which I may very well be. I see conflicting comments quite often.



*Edit - ROFL Portastorm. You crack me up!

[Ntxw]

Ah the frantic of model watching. Sure GFS isn't a megastorm. But! The storm is still there. That is key. All the models depict 1040mb+ high pressures and Canada is mighty cold therefore obviously we won't be lacking in that department.

It will be hard for the storm not to pull down cold air to it being so close even in the warm maps of the GFS (of course I will easily bet it is much colder than that). Oh Canada...

[txagwxman]

And the Euro brings the cold back....this is so much fun.

[Ntxw]

And the Euro brings the cold back....this is so much fun.

Hudson Bay Vortex ftw.

[Tireman4]

Storm 2K News caught with the Portastorm Weather Center (PWC) director this morning and asked him about the 12z Canadian run and its likelihood of verifying.

"The Canadian has had the hot hand this winter season," the director said. "Normally I wouldn't take it too seriously but this year it is rocking the house. I mean, Canada has brought us a lot of great things like Neil Young, Pamela Anderson, Keanu Reeves, ice hockey, and maple syrup, so why wouldn't we consider the CMC model in the same regard?"

The director said the PWC remains bullish on a major winter storm for Texas in one week's time. "Don't you worry, when this is all said and done, I'll have Wxman57 doing snow angels outside of his office!"

Do not forget the one...the only...the greatest....RUSH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Kelarie]

Storm 2K News caught with the Portastorm Weather Center (PWC) director this morning and asked him about the 12z Canadian run and its likelihood of verifying.

"The Canadian has had the hot hand this winter season," the director said. "Normally I wouldn't take it too seriously but this year it is rocking the house. I mean, Canada has brought us a lot of great things like Neil Young, Pamela Anderson, Keanu Reeves, ice hockey, and maple syrup, so why wouldn't we consider the CMC model in the same regard?"

The director said the PWC remains bullish on a major winter storm for Texas in one week's time. "Don't you worry, when this is all said and done, I'll have Wxman57 doing snow angels outside of his office!"

Oh I wonderf if PWC is hiring. I am looking to switch careers. Anyone know the website for PWC?

btw, priceless, very pricless

[Ntxw]

Oh I wonderf if PWC is hiring. I am looking to switch careers. Anyone know the website for PWC?

btw, priceless, very pricless

There is no site! It's privately owned and exclusive (and only, hmm I wonder why) to S2K

Sneaux on ze yuro



-20c into the Central plains. Bitterrrr

[Tireman4]

Oh I wonderf if PWC is hiring. I am looking to switch careers. Anyone know the website for PWC?

btw, priceless, very pricless

There is no site! It's privately owned and exclusive (and only, hmm I wonder why) to S2K

Membership has it priviledges!!!