We have to wait until it passes Hispanola to analize future

[cycloneye]

IMO once TD#9/Fabian makes it pass Hispanola we can say with more certainty what may happen with the future track and about if it will survive those 12,000 feet mountains if it gets in there.After it passes Hispanola all bets are off and anything may happen as the models are all over the place including NOGAPS which moves it out to sea not threatening the US to some tropical models that are pointing towards the GOm at long range.There you see the disparity from those models and until it passes that mountainous island we can't make a long range anaylisis of the track and intensity of it.

What is your take of what I haved said about Hispanola.?

[rainydaze]

Well, I remember a few years back Hurricane Debby
was a full blown hurricane and it completly dissapated over
Hispanola.
So how could a TD possibly make it ?

I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but I think it may
dissipate over Hispanola and not become TD again.

[Anonymous]

IMO once TD#9/Fabian makes it pass Hispanola we can say with more certainty what may happen with the future track and about if it will survive those 12,000 feet mountains if it gets in there.After it passes Hispanola all bets are off and anything may happen as the models are all over the place including NOGAPS which moves it out to sea not threatening the US to some tropical models that are pointing towards the GOm at long range.There you see the disparity from those models and until it passes that mountainous island we can't make a long range anaylisis of the track and intensity of it.

What is your take of what I haved said about Hispanola.?

Those mountains are gonna give it heck, but we need to be very watchful, particularly at this time of year. The mts will probably weaken it greatly, but the SSTs are warm enough to help it re-develop. Florida and all interested GOMers had best keep an eye on this and any other tropical developments, 'Cuz we are now getting into the heart of 'Cane season!!!


-Jeb

[Air Force Met]

Debby also had some bigger problems and was falling apart before it got to the DR. She was opening up in teh NE quad...lots of divergence there...and the foreward speed was real fast. The southern side of the LLC was almost non-existant and the northern end was enhanced by a strong pressure gradient. All she needs was a push over the hill and when the southern end of her circulation hit the DR...that was it. Had she been a more healthy and slower...she would have likely survived her encounter.

[JetMaxx]

I agree with Nelson....Debby had other problems besides Hispanola.

This storm is now projected to cross Hispanola from near Baharona to Port Au Prince then NW toward the eastern tip of Cuba. I have a large topographical map of both countries, and it appears that TD 9 may miss the high mountains....and traverse a low valley only 100' above sea level that runs WNW to ESE from Port Au Prince to Baharona. Also, the trip across that portion of Hispanola is only 90 miles wide -- so TD 9 will likely be over land less than 8 hours.

If this system reaches the area just north of eastern Cuba still intact as a TD -- IMO south Florida is in a world of trouble. Three days over SST of 86°+ (plus crossing the Gulf Stream) could turn this mouse into a violent monster...it's happened before.