Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

So much advertising! PWC service, weather rocks, we've gone corporate!

18z sure looks interesting. The southern plains is enduring a monstrous feature. The next frame is low res and magically the cold leaves and comes back with vengeance with sneaux go figure huh!

[iorange55]

Seems split in here with some positive and negativity. I really hope we see some snow, though. It hasn't been a very giving winter yet.

[Ntxw]

Seems split in here with some positive and negativity. I really hope we see some snow, though. It hasn't been a very giving winter yet.

Look at the GFS 192 to 240. It has the right idea but obviously not doing well with resolution lol. Followed by -30c into the great lakes. ECMWF motherload?

[iorange55]

Seems split in here with some positive and negativity. I really hope we see some snow, though. It hasn't been a very giving winter yet.

Look at the GFS 192 to 240. It has the right idea but obviously not doing well with resolution lol. Followed by -30c into the great lakes. ECMWF motherload?

Just looked at it. It looks like it's still in the same ballpark. The cold is around and well the moisture supply is ridiculous on that run.

I just hope it all comes together.

[orangeblood]

Hopefully we can get this storm to come together and lay down a nice snowcover over the southern plains early next week. Then get it to stick around for awhile by having the motherlode come down, once the polar vortex crashes into the great lakes region, toward the end of next week - just in time for the whole world to see an arctic tundra in Texas during the Super Bowl. I'm sure Jerry would love that



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[gboudx]

Seems split in here with some positive and negativity. I really hope we see some snow, though. It hasn't been a very giving winter yet.

By DFW standards, it's been a giving winter already. We've had 3-4 days where it didn't get above 32, and received multiple inches of snow. I've lived here since 1995 and don't remember very many winters that produced this type of cold, and this much snow, except last year which was an obvious anomaly. And January is looking to go down as colder than average. What are you expecting from a DFW winter?

[iorange55]

Seems split in here with some positive and negativity. I really hope we see some snow, though. It hasn't been a very giving winter yet.

By DFW standards, it's been a giving winter already. We've had 3-4 days where it didn't get above 32, and received multiple inches of snow. I've lived here since 1995 and don't remember very many winters that produced this type of cold, and this much snow, except last year which was an obvious anomaly. And January is looking to go down as colder than average. What are you expecting from a DFW winter?

Well I was speaking for my neighborhood. We got a half inch at best and it only lasted a few hours on the roofs.

Don't hurt me.

[Tejas89]

gboudx - some of us in DFW got snow last week, others left out except for maybe .5 inch or so. That's the only event this season right? Temp-wise it has seemed more "normal" compared to the very warm winters of most of the past 20 years.

It makes one appreciate last winter all the more. I actually agree that this winter needs to get on the ball or it will go down as a disappointment!

[wall_cloud]

gboudx - some of us in DFW got snow last week, others left out except for maybe .5 inch or so. That's the only event this season right? Temp-wise it has seemed more "normal" compared to the very warm winters of most of the past 20 years.

It makes one appreciate last winter all the more. I actually agree that this winter needs to get on the ball or it will go down as a disappointment!

20 years is 67% of the time frame used to calculate "normals". I'd say if the last 20 years were "warm", your "normal" would be too!

[Ntxw]

Normal?! To the people back in the 1700s-1800s this 'normal' we got is Hawaii weather! Houston probably had Dallas' climate while Dallas had OKC etc.

[gboudx]

Well I was speaking for my neighborhood. We got a half inch at best and it only lasted a few hours on the roofs.

Don't hurt me.

That 0.5" would actually be above normal. The NWS's official climate summary lists snowfall as "rare". I remember a lot more ice/sleet events than snow. I know the computer models have shown future promises, but the weather rock usually beats them.

gboudx - some of us in DFW got snow last week, others left out except for maybe .5 inch or so. That's the only event this season right? Temp-wise it has seemed more "normal" compared to the very warm winters of most of the past 20 years.

It makes one appreciate last winter all the more. I actually agree that this winter needs to get on the ball or it will go down as a disappointment!

Parts of the area had freezing rain early last week as well. But that was mostly north. We have a lot of winter to go, but imo it's already delivered.

[Tejas89]

Point taken! I guess I just miss the 80's. Weather AIN'T THE ONLY THING I miss though.

[iorange55]

Well I was speaking for my neighborhood. We got a half inch at best and it only lasted a few hours on the roofs.

Don't hurt me.

That 0.5" would actually be above normal. The NWS's official climate summary lists snowfall as "rare". I remember a lot more ice/sleet events than snow. I know the computer models have shown future promises, but the weather rock usually beats them.

Lol, I didn't know my little comment would get into research. I just meant for my area winter has been a disappointment. The past few years I have received more than I have this winter so far. I'm not going to think about 20+ years ago when talking about it being "average"

My winter appetite is huge and well as far as recent winters go this is a disappoint so far. For my area.

[Ntxw]

Snow the past year has been generous to the eastplexers though. Since the Christmas blizzard, things have flipped (unless you're in Denton, they seem to always get hammered west or east lucky dogs). We'll have a lot of grunts from the east side when it goes back to 'normal' again lol. That's going to be the case when all this blocking decides to go away and the eastern trough no longer has dominance. Those storms where the DFW area is right on the smidge and then once it's cold enough Dallas county eastward, moisture is gone. March 2008...

[gboudx]

Snow the past year has been generous to the eastplexers though. Since the Christmas blizzard, things have flipped (unless you're in Denton, they seem to always get hammered west or east lucky dogs). We'll have a lot of grunts from the east side when it goes back to 'normal' again lol. That's going to be the case when all this blocking decides to go away and the eastern trough no longer has dominance. Those storms where the DFW area is right on the smidge and then once it's cold enough Dallas county eastward, moisture is gone. March 2008...

This is true. Us eastplexers have favored well except for that 09 white Christmas almost everyone else saw. But I know that climatologically, what we've seen in snow is on the high end of "normal", and would be enough to cover several consecutive winters of no wintry precip. But enough of this, back to model watching before we get slapped with the dreaded "back on topic".

[Metalicwx220]

The gfs at 264 hours snow depth has accumulations of 3 inches throughout texas except eastern texas and afoot of snow for mexico. Does not this post sound familiar?

[Ntxw]

The gfs at 264 hours snow depth has accumulations of 3 inches throughout texas except eastern texas and afoot of snow for mexico. Does not this post sound familiar?

Yes but that does not have very much model support from the other ops or ensembles currently. Looks like a phantom storm for now...

[MississippiWx]

The gfs at 264 hours snow depth has accumulations of 3 inches throughout texas except eastern texas and afoot of snow for mexico. Does not this post sound familiar?

Yes but that does not have very much model support from the other ops or ensembles currently. Looks like a phantom storm for now...

How much consensus does this "Groundhog Day" storm really have, though? Seems like some of the models have been backing off the possibility.

[Ntxw]

The gfs at 264 hours snow depth has accumulations of 3 inches throughout texas except eastern texas and afoot of snow for mexico. Does not this post sound familiar?

Yes but that does not have very much model support from the other ops or ensembles currently. Looks like a phantom storm for now...

How much consensus does this "Groundhog Day" storm really have, though? Seems like some of the models have been backing off the possibility.

It does, Canadian-Euro-GFS have all shown a storm and incoming cold basically every run, how is that not consensus? The details have been back and forth hence people thinking it's backing off when really it hasn't...don't take the details too much. That's the flaw, people hear the sound of snow and become skeptic. That's fine, it's a good point, but many of us are not talking about details, we are talking about the overall pattern. Which all of the models depict the right one for a potential winter storm.

[MississippiWx]

Yes but that does not have very much model support from the other ops or ensembles currently. Looks like a phantom storm for now...[/quote]

How much consensus does this "Groundhog Day" storm really have, though? Seems like some of the models have been backing off the possibility.[/quote]

It does, Canadian-Euro-GFS have all shown a storm and incoming cold basically every run, how is that not consensus? The details have been back and forth hence people thinking it's backing off when really it hasn't...don't take the details too much.[/quote]

K, I'm not doubting you. Just wondering. I've noticed a lot of times that when Central TX gets a snowstorm, it usually translates into us getting one here in South MS. I like to pay attention to what's happening upstream! So, if I'm reading everything correctly, the EURO is digging a trof into the SW and forming a storm there, right?