Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SAT JAN 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING...WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE ON SHORE
AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO THE
NWS/FAA DOPPLER RADAR REPORTED ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SAN
JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE INCOMING WORKING WEEK. A COLD FRONT
NOW LOCATED OVER CUBA AND BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST BUT MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
HISPANIOLA.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE SWELL WILL INVADE OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND PASSAGES ON MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 72 82 / 0 10 10 10
STT 73 84 72 85 / 10 10 10 10

[Macrocane]

Good evening! The warmer than normal minimum temperatures continue in northern Central America (Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador) the other countries experienced near average lows this morning. The maximum temperatures this afternoon were normal for this time of year in most countries except in Honduras and El Salvador that had above average highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mounatin Pine Ridge, Belize 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.3°C (41.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.7°C (47.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.6°C (56.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31°C (88°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.5°C (88.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.4°C (97.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Managua 26.9°C (80.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.2°C (79.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)

[Macrocane]

Hey, there's something that I had forgotten to tell you, On January 20 we had the first measurable rain since December 2, the station of Sensuntepeque at the north of the country registered the highest amount with 2 mm (0.08 inches), yeah I know it's very little rain but our dry season is very dry especially from December to March so 2 mm in more than a month is something normal.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.It continues to be dry here.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 AM AST SUN JAN 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL WINTERTIME WEATHER...WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...EXPECTED TO PERSIS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING WITH VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS PW VALUES ARE EXPECT TO FALL TO NEAR OR JUST
BELOW ONE INCH AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE OCCASIONAL PATCHES
OF MOISTURE PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...HOWEVER...OVERALL STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 82 72 / 10 10 10 10
STT 85 73 85 73 / 10 10 10 10

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN JAN 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A SECOND AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST
AND AFFECT THE REST OF THE ISLAND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARE WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

WILL SEE OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...HOWEVER...OVERALL STABLE
AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL START TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. ALSO A MODERATE SWELL FROM THE NORTH WILL BEGIN
TO REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE TWO FACTORS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 72 82 / 10 10 10 20
STT 73 85 73 85 / 10 10 10 20

[Macrocane]

Hi! The weak cold front that entered the Caribbean yesterday had effects only in Belize and the high areas of Guatemla, near normal highs and lows were registered in Costa Rica and Panama, and above normal minimum and near normal maximum were experienced in the rest of the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 18°C (64°F)
Mounatin Pine Ridge, Belize 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.6°C (33.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.4°C (52.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.0°C (57.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 24.4°C (75.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.7°C (98.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Esteli, Managua 24.4°C (75.9°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.4°C (77.7°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
924 PM AST SUN JAN 23 2011

.UPDATE...SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL OCCUR ACROSS THE MUNICIPALITIES OF
HORMIGUEROS..SAN GERMAN AND MAYAGUEZ. ALL THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATED
NEAR SUNSET. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO....BUT
OVERALL...CLEAR SKIES WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST GRIDS ARE ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER
SITUATION...THERFORE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...REVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY BTW ERN PR AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
OVERALL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL PREVAIL SFC-10K FT AT LEAST
TIL 24/12Z. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR FLIGHT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST MON JAN 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AT THE SFC...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC INCREASING THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SVRL
DAYS AS HIGH PRES EXITS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER TODAY AND
BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. WINDS PEAK WEDNESDAY THEN SLOW DOWN
SOMEWHAT AS HIGH WEAKENS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND AN INCH FOR THE NEXT
SVRL DAYS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT SEA BREEZE RELATED
CONVECTION WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HOURS WITH INCREASING LLVL EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS. IN
ADDITION...A VCSH OR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TKPK FROM
24/10Z-24/14Z...AND IN THE VICINITY OF MAYAGUEZ FROM 24/16Z-24/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS
TONIGHT AS NNW SWELLS BUILD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SEAS PEAK
TUESDAY BUT WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO MWW FOR MORE
DETAILS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS OVR THE NEXT THREE DAYS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRYING OF FINE FUELS AND THUS STEADILY
INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND SRN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. MINIMUM_RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 50%
ACROSS THESE AREAS AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 15 TO
20 MPH FROM THE EAST WITH STRONGEST WINDS POSSIBLY OVER 20 MPH
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE
BETWEEN 3-4KFT AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT RESULTING
IN FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION RATES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 72 / 10 10 10 10
STT 85 73 84 74 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST MON JAN 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AT THE SFC...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INCREASING THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED BY THE
NWS/FAA DOPPLER RADAR BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE USVI EARLY IN THE EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND AN INCH FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...THE BUOY 41043 IS ALREADY SHOWING SWELLS OF 7 FEET
THEREFORE THE SMALL ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT EARLIER...NOW 6PM.
THIS SWELL EVENT WILL QUICKLY PEAK ON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
GENERATE CONFUSES SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 82 70 82 / 30 30 10 10
STT 72 84 73 85 / 20 20 10 10

[Macrocane]

It seems that this January will be one of the warmest in years in El Salvador as we've had at least 10 days in a row with above normal minimum temperatures. Today Guatemala, Belize, Honduras and El Salvador experienced above normal lows and near normal highs, Nicaragua and Panama were pretty average and Costa Rica had cool minimum temperatures wich is weird because no cold surge is present in the region at the moment. These are the observations:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mounatin Pine Ridge, Belize 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9°C (48°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.9°C (51.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.0°C (70°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.1°C (39.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.8°C (56.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.5°C (79.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.6°C (97.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Managua 24.4°C (75.9°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.7°C (83.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.9°C (71.4°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1029 PM AST MON JAN 24 2011

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LARGE PATCH OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS CROSSING
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND ENTERING THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. EXPECT
SOME OF THESE PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION WITH STILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY OR FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AS STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END FOR THE WEEK. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...AS
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AN
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY.LATEST UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED L/LVL
EASTERLY WNDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS FM SFC TO BLO 20K FT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.It continues to be mainly dry here,with only a few isolated showers moving thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 AM AST TUE JAN 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TRADES WILL PEAK TODAY/TONIGHT AND THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING TRADES AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION
TO JUST A SPOTTY SHOWER AT BEST. BEST MOISTURE STAYS SOUTH OVR
CARIBBEAN WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS AS EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS MOVE
ACROSS. TRADES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION FRIDAY BUT
STILL NO MORE THAN ISOLD CVRG EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS. EXPECT LLVL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NNW SWELLS OF UP TO 9 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING
BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
SHORT DURATION MARGINAL HIGH SURF EVENT ALONG THE NORTH COAST THIS
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUOY 41053 CLOSELY NEXT FEW
HOURS. SCAS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ATLC WATERS SURROUNDING
PR/USVI AND MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY`S THINKING. TRADE WINDS
WILL PEAK TODAY AND TOMORROW AND RESULT IN CONTINUED DRYING OF
FINE FUELS AND THUS INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST AND SRN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. MINIMUM_RH VALUES
DROPPED TO ABOUT 45% YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND SIMILAR VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20
MPH COULD RESULT IN ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP TO GET OUT OF CONTROL.
AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 3500 FT AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AROUND 16 KT RESULTING IN GOOD
VENTILATION RATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 72 / 10 10 10 10

[Gustywind]

Thanks for these news from PR Luis. Hope that things will improve en la isla del encanto

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST TUE JAN 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TRADES WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER FREE CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING
AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN USVI...AS THIS AREA
MOVE WESTWARD...IT COULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE SHOWER PROBABILITY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO.

TRADES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION FRIDAY BUT STILL
NO MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS. EXPECT LLVL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...THE BUOY 41043 HAVE REPORTED 9 FEET SWELLS FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES. THIS SWELL WILL PEAK
SOMETIME IN THE EVENING AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GENERATING
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 71 82 / 10 10 10 10
STT 71 84 73 84 / 20 20 10 10

[Macrocane]

A summary of today's weather in Central America:
-Guatemala and Belize had above average lows and highs.
-San Salvador finally had a seasonably minimum temperature (still a little above average though) this morning after 8 days of well above normal lows.
-Honduras had near normal lows and above normal highs.
-Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama had pretty average temperatures, except for Irazu volcano that was colder than normal.

The observations:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mounatin Pine Ridge, Belize 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.9°C (46.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.6°C (49.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 8°C (46°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.2°C (57.6°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.8°C (38.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.7°C (62.1°F)

Notice that since January 16 my posts hadn't had more than 3 blues (below 50°F temperatures).


Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.1°C (97.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Managua 24.4°C (75.9°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.3°C (54.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.9°C (69.6°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 AM AST WED JAN 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX THROUGH THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A MILD INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY TRADES BY FRIDAY...AS
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE FAIR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. THESE SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CONCENTRATE
OVER NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX. MAINLY
EAST WINDS 15G20KT DURING THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EFFECTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM BOTH AQUA AND GOES SATELLITES
DETECTED A HOTSPOT OVER COAMO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INDICATIVE OF MORE
THAN LIKELY SIGNIFICANT FIRES IN THAT AREA ALTHOUGH DID NOT GET AN
OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION FROM FIRE DEPARTMENT. CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY
SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WILL BE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS. REAL-TIME OBS FROM
YESTERDAY SHOWED THAT MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPED IN THE MID 30S IN
COAMO AND SIMILAR VALUES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY. LATEST KBDI
ANALYSIS FROM NCDC ALSO SHOWED THAT KBDI VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH
COASTAL ZONES ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LAST WEEK INDICATIVE THAT
SURFACE FUELS ARE DRYING AND MAY BEGIN TO CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE
INTENSITY. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPS/HIGHER RH VALUES IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MITIGATE FIRE DANGER THREAT THERE. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
BE FROM THE ENE AT 15G25MPH. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
AROUND 5500 FT WITH TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 18MPH FROM THE EAST
WHICH SHOULD YIELD GOOD VENTILATION RATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 84 72 / 0 10 10 10
STT 84 72 85 75 / 0 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST WED JAN 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX THROUGH THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A MILD INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY TRADES BY FRIDAY...AS
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE FAIR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. THESE SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CONCENTRATE
OVER NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX. MAINLY
EAST WINDS 12G20KT DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENTS
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EFFECTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS AND WIND WAVES
WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...KBDI ANALYSIS FROM NCDC SHOWED THAT KBDI VALUES
ACROSS THE NORTH COASTAL ZONES ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LAST WEEK
INDICATIVE THAT SURFACE FUELS ARE DRYING AND MAY BEGIN TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM
THE E AT 15G25MPH. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST AROUND
4000 TO 5000 FT WITH TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 15 TO 18 MPH FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD YIELD GOOD VENTILATION RATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 84 72 84 / 10 10 10 10
STT 72 85 75 85 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

It was a very cool overnight in Puerto Rico as the lowest temperature was 54F in Adjuntas on the center of the island in the Cordillera Central. So far during the winter period,it has been with a few below normal days.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST WED JAN 26 2011

.UPDATE...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLOUDS IN A
TROUGH...NOW PAST THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND MOVING TOWARD SAINT JOHN
AND SAINT CROIX. LAST TDWR IMAGE AT 27/2225Z SHOWED MODERATE TO
HEAVY...BUT VERY SMALL SHOWERS SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO WITH A SIMILAR INFRA RED SATELLITE DEPICTION. CLOUD
MASS APPROACHING THE AREA IS MUCH LARGER...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
HAD LOWER CEILINGS OR LIGHT SHOWERS...THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
EASTERN MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO...AND IN SAINT CROIX AND
SAINT THOMAS. GFS SEEMS HIGH ON MAX TEMPERATURE...BUT SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAY OFFSET INCREASED CLOUDINESS SO WILL ALLOW 84 DEGREES FOR
SAN JUAN TO RIDE. NEW GUIDANCE MAY CHANGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. LATEST TJSJ 00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO 15K FEET BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.