Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

K, I'm not doubting you. Just wondering. I've noticed a lot of times that when Central TX gets a snowstorm, it usually translates into us getting one here in South MS. I like to pay attention to what's happening upstream! So, if I'm reading everything correctly, the EURO is digging a trof into the SW and forming a storm there, right?

I feel your concern don't worry. What I was trying to point out was there is a method to figuring out which storms long range to follow and which are not. Most of the time they are quick model blips that really mean nothing because there is no support and disappear the next run. Wxman, srain first pointed out on here that there is tremendous cold air in Canada and the pattern was becoming ripe for it to spill south. Not long after you have models start showing something. Now we can see these features unfold run after run so discussion begins . +PNA screams digging SW on the euro. If not that one, one eventually will at some point imo.

[Ivanhater]

K, I'm not doubting you. Just wondering. I've noticed a lot of times that when Central TX gets a snowstorm, it usually translates into us getting one here in South MS. I like to pay attention to what's happening upstream! So, if I'm reading everything correctly, the EURO is digging a trof into the SW and forming a storm there, right?

I feel your concern don't worry. What I was trying to point out was there is a method to figuring out which storms long range to follow and which are not. Most of the time they are quick model blips that really mean nothing because there is no support and disappear the next run. Wxman, srain first pointed out on here that there is tremendous cold air in Canada and the pattern was becoming ripe for it to spill south. Not long after you have models start showing something. Now we can see these features unfold run after run so discussion begins . +PNA screams digging SW on the euro. If not that one, one eventually will at some point imo.

Great points. I would be more concerned if this storm did not disappear in the mid range. It seems like all the big snow storms of the past have shown up in the long range, disappears in the mid range only to come back. What is much more valuable is the ensemble and pattern recognition and that looks damn good right now! Exciting times coming soon imo

[richtrav]

Normal?! To the people back in the 1700s-1800s this 'normal' we got is Hawaii weather! Houston probably had Dallas' climate while Dallas had OKC etc.

Not really. I had always assumed the end of the 19th century was colder than the 20th but it wasn't, the only difference was the high number of extremely severe freezes the last few decades of the 1800s was well known for. Anecdotal evidence from Berlandier in the early 1800s indicate the climate back then was very similar to today's. In New Orleans and other places in LA people who kept weather records noted that the period around 1800 was colder than the several decades before. Record keeping for the southeast goes back further but again it doesn't seem to indicate a more severe climate.

As an example, here is a graph of the average January max and min in San Antonio from 1886 to 2002 (the weather bureau used to have the raw numbers on their website). There are ups and downs just like you'd expect but you'd be hard pressed to make out any long-term trends:

[Texas Snowman]

Headline: "Thanks to La Nina, Super weather more likely than not"



That's what this article in the Ft. Worth Star Telegram is touting for Super Sunday.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/01/24 ... -nina.html

[southerngale]

I hope y'all are right. I admittedly have no patience (God give me patience and give it to me now!! ) and while I can't stop myself from watching run to run, I get irritated when it doesn't show a winter wonderland for me. lol I know... I'm sick. And to make things even more baffling, I'm sick of the cold weather and ready for spring! And yet, I got spoiled to measurable snow the past few years and want more, more, more! I figure if it's going to be cold, at least let me have some fun in it!

[Ntxw]

That was sarcasm . But very interesting find richtrav!

[Texas Snowman]

Great points. I would be more concerned if this storm did not disappear in the mid range. It seems like all the big snow storms of the past have shown up in the long range, disappears in the mid range only to come back. What is much more valuable is the ensemble and pattern recognition and that looks damn good right now! Exciting times coming soon imo

Look no farther back than last year's Feb. Dozen Inch Doozy that blasted Dallas/Fort Worth with its record snowfall.

Pretty sure that was the pattern it followed. It appeared in the long range, then it disappeared in the mid range, then it came back strong at the end.

[Texas Snowman]

And come to think of it, wasn't that the same pattern that the Christmas Eve blizzard followed? Appeared long range, disappeared mid-range, and re-appear on the door step?

Of course, Mississippi State Weather Guy wasn't fooled by that one at all!!!

[Ntxw]

Storm earlier this month was the same way ^. Given it wasn't the foot the GFS harped for days about but the storm did materialize

[MSUDawg]

Seems split in here with some positive and negativity. I really hope we see some snow, though. It hasn't been a very giving winter yet.

By DFW standards, it's been a giving winter already. We've had 3-4 days where it didn't get above 32, and received multiple inches of snow. I've lived here since 1995 and don't remember very many winters that produced this type of cold, and this much snow, except last year which was an obvious anomaly. And January is looking to go down as colder than average. What are you expecting from a DFW winter?

Well I was speaking for my neighborhood. We got a half inch at best and it only lasted a few hours on the roofs.

Don't hurt me.

I agree.. I live south of the airport (actually just learned i live in the middle of a runway of the former GSW airport) and i havent seen ANY accumulation. was far too wet for anything to stick a couple weeks ago.

[Ntxw]

Check out the -40c isotherm coming out from the arctic late in the NAM. I am guessing this will be our Hudson Bay vortex to be.

[Metalicwx220]

We'll need to keep an eye on the northern stream energy. If we can get that piece to die out and not be so much of a factor until the east coast, I think we stand a chance. H5 maps look good, with that kind of ridging I don't like the GFS' progressive nature (it does have that tendency). I think it will dig a little more than that.

BTW for all those wanting to get excited (optimism here). Take a look at this blizzard on the GFS.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/1654/gfspcp240m.gif

I can't find this map this far out. Do you know where to access it?

Look here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... amer.shtml

Choose the model run time (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, or 18Z). Choose the panel size (course, medium or fine) according to your monitor size (medium works well for a 19-24" monitor). Then choose from either the "10m-Wnd 06hr Pcpn" column or click the link at the top to go to the upper-air GFS graphics and choose from the "MSLP 1000 - 500mb" column.

I also like to look at the twister site for GFS snow accumulation maps. Go here:
http://www.twisterdata.com/

Click the "GFS" tab up top and open the "Winter" section in the left navigation frame. Choose "snow depth" from the list of winter panels then navigate to the hour you want to look at. In addition, this map is clickable to produce an atmospheric sounding for wherever you click on the map.

I was tired of going to page 139 to access this.

[Parker_County1]

I'm thinking maybe we will see some flurries here in Weatherford by morning. It's 39° now.
Radar returns seem to be increasing around Wichita Falls and moving southeast.

[somethingfunny]

Headline: "Thanks to La Nina, Super weather more likely than not"



That's what this article in the Ft. Worth Star Telegram is touting for Super Sunday.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/01/24 ... -nina.html

That's actually a really good article. Well-written, well-researched, and without any of the absolutism the media often treats weather stories with. It's too bad this isn't a normal La Nina.

[gboudx]

I'm thinking maybe we will see some flurries here in Weatherford by morning. It's 39° now.
Radar returns seem to be increasing around Wichita Falls and moving southeast.

The graphic on the NWS front page is suggesting you guys may see some flurries. Good luck!

[Texas Snowman]

Headline: "Thanks to La Nina, Super weather more likely than not"



That's what this article in the Ft. Worth Star Telegram is touting for Super Sunday.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2011/01/24 ... -nina.html

That's actually a really good article. Well-written, well-researched, and without any of the absolutism the media often treats weather stories with. It's too bad this isn't a normal La Nina.

That's why I put the rolling eyes in there. This year's La Nina is anything but a normal La Nina year!

[Texas Snowman]

The graphic on the NWS front page is suggesting you guys may see some flurries. Good luck!

NWS now has a "Winter Weather Advisory" out for Abilene and a couple of surrounding counties in the Rolling Plains. A 50% chance of snow overnight with an accumulation of up to an inch.

[wxman22]

0z GFS looks maybe slightly better than the last couple of runs FWIW edit: moisture leaves before cold air arrives...

[Ntxw]

0z GFS not much different than 18z. Same set up, same scenario. Snow for the northern half of the state on this run verbatim. Still questioning the consistency of a system existing ?

[iorange55]

0z GFS not much different than 18z. Same set up, same scenario. Snow for the northern half of the state on this run verbatim. Still questioning the consistency of a system existing ?

I'm liking it. Sure it's not showing A LOT but that is all details ;]