Texas Winter 2010-2011

[iorange55]

Oh you GFS

[Ntxw]

Don't believe iorange55! It's distracting you so it can play it's games with the first storm! Diversion to mask it's flaws of medium range! BTW GFS usually loses storms like this around 150th hour after a few high res runs. Just so you know

[southerngale]

The trend is not my friend. If it's not gonna snow, could spring hurry up already?

[iorange55]

Don't believe iorange55! It's distracting you so it can play it's games with the first storm! Diversion to mask it's flaws of medium range! BTW GFS usually loses storms like this around 150th hour after a few high res runs. Just so you know

Lol, oh I'm not distracted. I'm all about the first storm, I'm getting tired of waiting! The 10th is too far out to worry about.

[Peanut432]

Does the euro show anything that are around the 1st and 2nd as well? Sorry for my ignorance and thanks in advance

[downsouthman1]

Some decent returns are showing up near Lubbock. I would assume at least some of this is reaching the ground.

Also, it would appear the low is traveling a little further south than they are currently depicting.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... el=Lubbock, TX&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

Dewpoint is 30 here & temp 37, so with the relatively dry low layer, I don't anticipate our dewpoint going any higher overnight, which is good. If any precip falls here, it should be snow.

[iorange55]

Does the euro show anything that are around the 1st and 2nd as well? Sorry for my ignorance and thanks in advance

It's not out yet, but previous runs have showed the same basic set-up.

[Ntxw]

Canadian bacon same general idea. It's still trying to resolve placement of the low (if any) having it move around differently per runs, but good trend.

CMC is cold. 1040mb going into the Panhandle.

[wall_cloud]

Some decent returns are showing up near Lubbock. I would assume at least some of this is reaching the ground.

Also, it would appear the low is traveling a little further south than they are currently depicting.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... el=Lubbock, TX&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

Dewpoint is 30 here & temp 37, so with the relatively dry low layer, I don't anticipate our dewpoint going any higher overnight, which is good. If any precip falls here, it should be snow.

Getting light accumulations in and around Lubbock. Some of that is likely bright banding but it looks like a pretty decent mesoscale band setting up in the deformation zone to the northwest of the low cutting off around 700 mb. It has taken a while to moisten the layer but its getting the job done. Now if we can get that to hold together as the low moves southeast we should see some in the Sweetwater/Abilene area late tonight.

[downsouthman1]

Some decent returns are showing up near Lubbock. I would assume at least some of this is reaching the ground.

Also, it would appear the low is traveling a little further south than they are currently depicting.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... el=Lubbock, TX&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

Dewpoint is 30 here & temp 37, so with the relatively dry low layer, I don't anticipate our dewpoint going any higher overnight, which is good. If any precip falls here, it should be snow.

Getting light accumulations in and around Lubbock. Some of that is likely bright banding but it looks like a pretty decent mesoscale band setting up in the deformation zone to the northwest of the low cutting off around 700 mb. It has taken a while to moisten the layer but its getting the job done. Now if we can get that to hold together as the low moves southeast we should see some in the Sweetwater/Abilene area late tonight.

Anything falling there where you're at in San Angelo? It would seem as if the column is moistening there as we speak. If you don't see anything yet, I would anticipate it to start falling shortly, even though it'll likely be light.

It would also appear that Denton might currently be having its column moistened.

Returns are also starting to show around Del Rio. It would appear this system may have a little bit more umph than FW NWS thinks.

[Ntxw]

The RUC has been a fail for this one. Live action!

[wall_cloud]

The RUC has been a fail for this one. Live action!

The RUC is always fail. I almost never use it. Would rather use the experimental HRRR

[Ntxw]

The RUC has been a fail for this one. Live action!

The RUC is always fail. I almost never use it. Would rather use the experimental HRRR

I've been lazy so I just glance at the RUC for big storms lol. HRRR is a lot more detailed yeah.

Edit: Keeps most of the accumulating snow between Lubbock and Abilene.

[wxman22]

0z Euro looks cold but precip ends before cold air arrives...

[iorange55]

Purdy cold.

[Ntxw]

That looks like candy to me! Cold with energy right above our heads.

[Portastorm]

NWSFO Austin/San Antonio throws a crumb to Portastorm in its morning AFD ... here is the relevant snippet:

A DRY AND MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW WARMING
TREND UNTIL FRIDAY WITH MOST MODEL DATA SHOWING A SOUTHERN US
DISTURBANCE DRUMMING UP PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A POSSIBLE
COOL RAIN PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS KEEP THE AIR WARM
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT COLD CANADIAN AIR
UNDERCUTS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE MORE UNIFORM
BRINGING COLD AIR IN LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY WITH A STRONG
COLD CONTINENTAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ALOFT BY TUESDAY. ANY
EARLY ARRIVAL OF THIS AIR COULD SPELL A MIXED PRECIPIATION EVENT
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY.

[Ntxw]

6z is mighty close to a big event for the Red River valley. Couple more days and we'll be in the excitement zone!

[Portastorm]

6z is mighty close to a big event for the Red River valley. Couple more days and we'll be in the excitement zone!

Yep, agreed Ntxw. I saw nothing in the overnight guidance that would diminish my enthusiasm for next week. The likelihood of something big (and wintry) happening in the Southern Plains appears to be growing.

[Tig70]

Got a little snow here in Lubbock. Covered the lawn, rooftops and vehicles. None stuck on the pavement.
Clear skies this morning, snow should be gone in a couple hours. =[