Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[zippity]

Local mets haven't said a thing about next week; I think they're currently focused on the next 24 hours...

Dan Satterfield, WHNT, is saying approximately 1 to 2 inches of snow in the Huntsville area; we'll prolly get a school "snow day" but melting in the afternoon.
____________________________________________
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
515 AM CST WED JAN 25 2011

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS
.DISCUSSION...WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING AT
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU NOON ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW ON SNOW AMOUNTS ATTM SINCE HPC GRAPHICS ARE SHOWING NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA...THEY KEEP THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF OUR CWA.

ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GOOD SNOW EVENT
BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH DYNAMICAL COOLING TO TURN THE RAIN TO SNOW AND PRODUCE
SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. THINKING THAT THE BEST TIMING OF
MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE BETWEEN 09Z THRU 15Z AND FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE TN RIVER AND IN OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS SITES OF NE AL AND
SRN MID TN. ATTM WILL KEEP TOTAL SNOWFALL BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY END AS HIGHS TOP OUT
IN THE LOW/MID 40S...SO WHAT EVER SNOW WE GET SHOULD MELT. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL DRAG A CDFNT ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE...IF ANY AT ALL.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WILL BE DRY AND MILD (HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S).

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER TROF/SFC CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH A
CHC OF RAIN BY THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHC OF THE RAIN MIXING WITH OR TURNING TO SNOW.
ATTM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLDER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN
AL...JACKSON...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...
MARSHALL...MORGAN.

TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS

[Ivanhater]

Also, before the storm, we have a nice 1044mb High settling into the Central U.S.

[MississippiWx]

I like the 12z run of the GFS. I realize the 0 degree line is not to I-20 on this run, but the storm looks realistic. For those of us who have been too far south this year to get snow, we need that Gulf low to spin up faster than previous storms. If it doesn't, it could end up being an I-20 corridor and north storm, as far as snow goes. Gotta like that 1044mb high settling in before the storm, though. Should mean plenty of cold air is around. We just need the low to be strong enough to pull it into the system, rather than have the low cause warm air advection and deflect cold air too far north.

Edit: The trend this year has been for the Gulf lows to spin up too far to the east to bring much cold air down south. In other words, the low is strengthening once it makes it to Florida and off the GA coastline. When that happens, Alabama and points west of there use up most of their moisture in the form of rain because the low wasn't strong enough to pull down sufficiently cold air while it was around. If we are going to get snow closer to the coast, that low needs to start strengthening off the TX coast.

[Ivanhater]

I like the 12z run of the GFS. I realize the 0 degree line is not to I-20 on this run, but the storm looks realistic. For those of us who have been too far south this year to get snow, we need that Gulf low to spin up faster than previous storms. If it doesn't, it could end up being an I-20 corridor and north storm, as far as snow goes. Gotta like that 1044mb high settling in before the storm, though. Should mean plenty of cold air is around. We just need the low to be strong enough to pull it into the system, rather than have the low cause warm air advection and deflect cold air too far north.

All good points. Another thing to mention is the GFS is probably not handling the cold all that well in this range. With a 1044mb high settling into the central U.S. that bodes well for the cold oozing down to the coast. Again, all details that are impossible to know right now, but 2 players that consistently are being shown is a great setup: A strong High (1044+) in the Central U.S and a Gulf low

Will still be many days before we can nail down the details.

[zippity]

Personal observation: Temps seem to have dropped at bit since this morning...temp was 42 on my way to an appointment, then 1.5 hours later was 39 degrees. I have no ideas what this means, if anything, as I leave the forecasting to the trained meteorologists.
__________________________________________


REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1026 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

.UPDATE...TO TWEAK TEMPS LOWER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO FAIRLY STRONG UPGLIDE BEING PRODUCED BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF NEW ORLEANS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TN. NOT
STRONG...BUT DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION CAN BEE SEE IN 12Z ANALYSIS
UPSTREAM AT 925 MB AND 850 MB.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 40S..WITH SOME
MID 40S POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER. OVERALL TWEAKED
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPGLIDE WILL
INCREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY. THEREFORE
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAIN MIXED
IN...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. WE SHOULD SEE
BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS TODAY.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS Ensemble mean looks promising as well

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p12204.gif

[Agua]

Ivanhater - whenever you link from AmericanWX.com, the links are disabled and we see nothing except a message stating to link to download the graphic then link to imageshack.

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater - whenever you link from AmericanWX.com, the links are disabled and we see nothing except a message stating to link to download the graphic then link to imageshack.

Forgot about that. Thanks!

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro is in no short supply of cold

[MississippiWx]

Michael,

There's plenty of cold on that run, but where is our disturbance and moisture during that period?

[Brent]

Huntsville's gonna add to their foot already this season and I'm not gonna add to my light dusting.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LIKELY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-260300-
/O.UPG.KHUN.WS.A.0002.110126T0600Z-110126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.W.0002.110126T0600Z-110126T1800Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
100 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED: RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND
THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALABAMA... AND THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES.
THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

* OTHER HAZARDS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

SL

[Brent]

What a joke.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
154 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW STILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO BRING A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM... AND GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALZ011-014-017-018-020-260500-
/O.UPG.KBMX.WS.A.0002.110126T0600Z-110126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0002.110126T0600Z-110126T1800Z/
MARION-WINSTON-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CHEROKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...DOUBLE SPRINGS...ONEONTA...
GADSDEN...CENTRE
154 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS EVENING. BUT BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH OVER TO A RAIN
SNOW MIXTURE...AND AT TIMES FALL AS ALL SNOW. FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED.

AT THIS TIME...ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE SHOULD MELT QUICKLY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL HELP MELT AND SNOW THAT HAS ACCUMULATED. A FEW SLICK SPOTS
MAY DEVELOP TEMPORARILY BUT NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO 2 INCHES. SLICK SPOTS MAY
MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

[Metalicwx220]

12z Euro is in no short supply of cold

UUUMMM....... Thats cold. look how far into florida that 0 line is.

[bella_may]

So when do you think all the mets are gonna bite on this snow storm?

[Dean4Storms]

12z Euro is in no short supply of cold

If that comes to fruition there won't be any South Snow, only dry and cold. One possibility would be a brief snow shower behind the front as it swings through.

[Ivanhater]

18z DGEX is sniffing this out as well

[Ivanhater]

18z DGEX Snowfall map going out to 192 hours

[BigB0882]

That snow map is awfully mean to me. So close to a big snow but no good. I doubt that verifies but it could be on to something. Maybe it will all come further East.