AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
244 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE OCCUR. A WEAK UPPER
TROF THEN LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE BUT ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC GETS PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROF. WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE MOISTURE IS RICHEST...SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
NEXT THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ARCTIC AIR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PERSISTENTLY SHOWN A PRETTY
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SOMETIME MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROF
THEN PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS RAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE
TENDENCY FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO SOMETIMES OVERDO WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. WILL WATCH HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Still no clear picture of weather here for Super Bowl week in NTX. But with Green Bay in the game it should be fitting to have some Green Bay weather.
