Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[bella_may]

18z DGEX Snowfall map going out to 192 hours

WOW if that holds up it will be record snowfall across la and tx.! I'm anxious to see the later hour model runs to see if that moves east

[Metalicwx220]

Go 10min north of houston and you have record breaking snowfall and not have a flurry in houston.Whatever lol. Do any model runs still show snow for the deep south. GFS snow depth has not had any today.

[BigB0882]

I am assuming the 00z GFS must be awful or someone would have said something by now. lol

[Jagno]

I'm apparently not reading those temperature maps right because it certainly looks like 2º here in Southwest Louisiana. People we aren't equipped for those temps. Plumbers would become instantly wealthy in this area.

However, I tend to have rare cold events whenever something very important is taking place in my life. When I got married in 1980 we were crippled with 16º temperatures. Hotels were closed, electricity was out and road to honeymoon destination was closed, and it was COLD. When I was selected as our 2003 Queen for a large Mardi Gras krewe we suffered through the entire week prior to the ball in the ice storm. I've been selected as Queen again to be presented on February 5th so trust me when I tell you that this doesn't necessarily come as a huge shock. I think I just might need to add sleeves to my Queens gown.

[BigB0882]

Which maps are you talking about jagno? Might the 2 degree be in Celcius? That would be just above freezing.

[Jagno]

Which maps are you talking about jagno? Might the 2 degree be in Celcius? That would be just above freezing.

LOL, I'm brain dead. Thank you. I keep forgetting about celcius since we use farenhight. I feel much better. I'll just wear my dunce cap proudly and crawl back into the corner.

[BigB0882]

With the 00z Euro run showing such extreme cold I decided to look at the GFS breakdown for my area. It shows a very cold rain on the 2nd with temps in the low 40's. Being that the GFS can tend to be off on temps, maybe that will be something to watch if temps are being overdone. It is a good amount of QPF. .75 and it cuts off before the event is done, I am guessing. Curious to see the update tomorrow and see if the temp goes below 40.

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

[Brent]

Well today's "snowstorm" was a massive fail. Nada, nothing, zlitch for most, and only a dusting to half inch at best in the higher elevations.

[Ntxw]

Well today's "snowstorm" was a massive fail. Nada, nothing, zlitch for most, and only a dusting to half inch at best in the higher elevations.

Lower levels were just too warm

[Ivanhater]

The 12z Canadian is cold and stormy...interesting set up

[BigB0882]

Ivanhater, is there any chance of a L getting into the Gulf and skimming across to give us along the coast a shot of something wintry during the cold? I keep hearing in the TX thread about any energy shooting up through TX towards the plains which would leave us all high and dry. Those maps are hard for me to read but the bottom right looks like the "line" is well to the coast and plenty of moisture behind it, hopefully moving our way?

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, is there any chance of a L getting into the Gulf and skimming across to give us along the coast a shot of something wintry during the cold? I keep hearing in the TX thread about any energy shooting up through TX towards the plains which would leave us all high and dry. Those maps are hard for me to read but the bottom right looks like the "line" is well to the coast and plenty of moisture behind it, hopefully moving our way?

Yes the freeze line is down past the coast and a storm developing over the Texas coast. I feel more comfortable with tropical weather so I'm trying to learn as we go when it comes to winter wx. Looking over the Canadian ensembles, it seems the storm does indeed skirt the Gulf coast, so everything looks as good as it can right now.

[Ivanhater]

My Gosh..the 12z Euro has the -12c line settling down to the North central Gulf coast, that is single digits approaching the Gulf coast

[BigB0882]

Wow! That is FRIGID. If that verifies, that would probably be the coldest I have experienced in the 10 years I have lived here. BTR would be right on the -10/-12 border which is low teens!

[northjaxpro]

NWS Tallahassee, FL AFD posted this afternoon


Long Range:

LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) THE 00Z GFS SHEARS OUT A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ACROSS THE GULF COAST LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE OLD 12Z ECMWF AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...SO WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...THE GFS SHOWS A MORE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z EURO CUTS OFF THAT PIECE OF ENERGY OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND INSTEAD DRIVES A VERY STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS THINGS DRY. THE OLD EURO RUN
IS QUITE EXTREME AND HAVE DISCOUNTED IT FOR NOW. AS A RESULT OF
THE PATTERN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
GENERALLY TOOK THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND USED A BLEND OF
THE MEX MOS AND GFS/MEX BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES WITH LESS
WEIGHT ON THE OLD EURO DUE TO ITS EXTREME SOLUTION AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jackson, MS AFD issued this afternoon


LONG RANGE

FROM LATE MON INTO WED (1/31/ - 2/2/11)...THE GFS AND EURO DIFFER ON HOW THEY AMPLIFY
THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND ULTIMATELY HANDLE THE ENERGY DIVING DOWN
THE LEE SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND EVENTUALLY SURGING SOUTH SOME
ARCTIC AIR. THE EURO IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
CANADIAN. THE EURO IS OFFERING MORE CONTINUITY AND IS THE MORE
ACCEPTED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST. THE TRULY COLD AIR LOOKS TO
ARRIVE LATE TUE INTO WED AND HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP FORECAST TO WELL
BELOW AVG FOR THIS PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST FOLLOWED THE GUID
PRECIP CHANCES AND KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AS RAIN. THIS MID WEEK
TIMEFRAME WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS SOME WINTRY TYPE PRECIP
COULD EASILY MATERIALIZE.

[bella_may]

I haven't tracked a storm like this since 93 ! I think somebody will get something out of this for sure

[northjaxpro]

Well, it will be interesting to monitor for the coming days, especially the model guidance trends. Euro is definitely latching onto a very significant arctic air surge to dive southward next week. The big question is if the southern branch of the jet stream will get active next week. Some discrepencies with the models about a possible shortwave traversing along the southern stream jet for next week. This is what will be closely watched. If we can get a strong shortwave to emerge and develop cyclogenesis a bit farther west in the GOM next week, then we could be looking at a very interesting situation with winter precip once again in the Deep South.

I think it is becoming more probable that another arctic outbreak will affect the Deep South region by this time next week and if the latest Euro run verifies, it could be some the coldest air of the season.

[BigB0882]

I know this is accuweather and I know it is far off but they are showing 4 straight days of rain from the 6th to the 9th of Feb. If we get bitterly cold and dry and then warm up to have 4 days of rain, I don't think I will ever forgive Mother Nature.

[gsytch]

The maps do not click on larger. It says to use the bar but it doesn't work. Should I go to NOAA? Living in Tampa Bay, arctic fronts are a major worry, especially since we have had far enough this winter already! Thanks...