Texas Winter 2010-2011

[southerngale]

If ECMWF right === 23F IAH, 20F Hooks (Tomball).

Thanks. I don't know what the temps were for IAH and Hooks on those mornings where I was in the low or mid-20s, so I can compare. Maybe David or Steve would know, as their temps are usually closer to mine, and they're likely more familiar with the airport temps over there.

The airport here (BPT) is south of Beaumont, in Nederland, and always warmer than my area and all of Beaumont. It's weird and annoying how that is Beaumont's official reporting station when it's in an entirely different city, farther south.

[srainhoutx]

If ECMWF right === 23F IAH, 20F Hooks (Tomball).

Thanks. I don't know what the temps were for IAH and Hooks on those mornings where I was in the low or mid-20s, so I can compare. Maybe David or Steve would know, as their temps are usually closer to mine, and they're likely more familiar with the airport temps over there.

The airport here (BPT) is south of Beaumont, in Nederland, and always warmer than my area and all of Beaumont. It's weird and annoying how that is Beaumont's official reporting station when it's in an entirely different city, farther south.

I tend to run 3-5 degrees colder than Hooks, southerngale.

[srainhoutx]

NCEP Update regarding the 12Z NCEP suite...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Wed Jan 26 13:37:26 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 261337
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1335Z WED JAN 26 2011
THE 12Z NAM STARTED ON TIME WITH 31 CANADIAN...13 MEXICAN
AND 8 CARIBBEAN STATIONS AVBL FOR INGEST.
THERE WERE 8 DROPSONDE REPORTS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
SEABOARD IN SUPPORT OF WINTER STORM RECON...ALTHOUGH ONLY 3
WERE INGESTED BY THE NAM. THERE WERE ALSO 3 FLIGHT LEVEL
REPORTS AROUND 300 MB.
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
WAL/72402 - LATE FOR NAM.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
NCEP DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A CWD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[southerngale]

Still many uncertainties. Keep in mind that the air in western and central Canada NOW is about 30-40 degrees colder than it was prior to the last Arctic outbreak that dropped temps along the upper TX coast to the low to mid 20s. How much of that will drop south? Don't know yet. Will have to wait until the weekend, I think, to be more sure.

I tend to run 3-5 degrees colder than Hooks, southerngale.

Thanks, guys. And 3-5 degrees colder than 20° would definitely be the coldest of the season. But come on, moisture!


Also interesting to note that THIS front is colder than expected. I woke up to frost everywhere and was surprised to see it. I had a low of 29° this morning and a freeze wasn't even predicted!

[txagwxman]

If ECMWF right === 23F IAH, 20F Hooks (Tomball).

Thanks. I don't know what the temps were for IAH and Hooks on those mornings where I was in the low or mid-20s, so I can compare. Maybe David or Steve would know, as their temps are usually closer to mine, and they're likely more familiar with the airport temps over there.

The airport here (BPT) is south of Beaumont, in Nederland, and always warmer than my area and all of Beaumont. It's weird and annoying how that is Beaumont's official reporting station when it's in an entirely different city, farther south.

I tend to run 3-5 degrees colder than Hooks, southerngale.

Hooks? I live right by there, and I am about 1-2F warmer than Hooks airport.

[CaptinCrunch]

^ CPC predicts Late Feb/March/April will be warmer and drier. Likely to overwhelm as far as averages go. La Nada. They had Nov/Dec/Jan warmer and drier as well...we know how that went.

This is more important

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/5444 ... wsmall.gif
http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/6758 ... wsmall.gif

To be fair with the CPC, both Nov and Dec monthly means were warmer/drier than normal for NTX. Jan has so far been on average -3 below the monthly mean temp, and almost 2" below the monthly mean for precip (COLDER/DRIER). For NTX to be consistent with a warmer/drier than avg winter you need 2 out 3 months (Dec-Feb) to be the same, if you want to have a La Nina Winter.

[srainhoutx]

Still many uncertainties. Keep in mind that the air in western and central Canada NOW is about 30-40 degrees colder than it was prior to the last Arctic outbreak that dropped temps along the upper TX coast to the low to mid 20s. How much of that will drop south? Don't know yet. Will have to wait until the weekend, I think, to be more sure.

I tend to run 3-5 degrees colder than Hooks, southerngale.

Thanks, guys. And 3-5 degrees colder than 20° would definitely be the coldest of the season. But come on, moisture!


Also interesting to note that THIS front is colder than expected. I woke up to frost everywhere and was surprised to see it. I had a low of 29° this morning and a freeze wasn't even predicted!

Yet another moderate frost here this morning as well. The weekend sure looks wet across much of TX as well. We certainly had a pattern change around Christmas and those month after month of nothing but dry weather have flown out the window. We actually have put a dent in the drought situation for most of SE TX since late December. Not many expected snow in N TX this year either with a moderate/strong La Nina. Some much for a normal La Nina pattern. Now will the MJO deliver that moisture in the days ahead when the cold is here? That is the $64,000 question, IMO. And txagwxman, I live in the eastern part of the Katy Prairie. Our temps are different and tend lower that the Hooks reading, for the record, sir.

[Portastorm]

Bottomed out at 29 degrees this morning at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County. Heavy frost as well ... definitely felt chilly!

[Tireman4]

32 here in the burbs of Humble.....frost everywhere this morning.

[txagwxman]

phase of the two short-waves over Alberta/Washington.

[Portastorm]

phase of the two short-waves over Alberta/Washington.

Meaning?

[txagwxman]

Looks closer to the ECMWF.

[Portastorm]

Thank you txagwxman ... so it appears the 12z GFS is trending more towards the Euro solution.

[txagwxman]

Thank you txagwxman ... so it appears the 12z GFS is trending more towards the Euro solution.

No the NAM is...

[Rgv20]

So when do you all think the GFS is going to start to change its tune in regards to the cold air next week? Or maybe its right all along....

[txagwxman]

So when do you all think the GFS is going to start to change its tune in regards to the cold air next week? Or maybe its right all along....

24 hours before it happens.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I had 38 degrees at my mini weather center in Missouri City/Sugar Land. It could have been cooler before sunrise, but i didnt hit the 'low temp' button. Looks like the official temp at the airport here was 32. I live in a big heat island basically. Lots of frost everywhere though. Crossing my fingers for next week. Heres the discussion

Houston/Galveston Area

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 AM CST WED JAN 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST AS WE
REMAIN IN A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT STILL ON TAP
TO PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT/TOMORROW WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/
COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE. MODELS STILL POINTING TO A RATHER WET/ACTIVE
WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES IN FROM THE GULF STARTING FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DEVELOPS AND THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS CLOSED LOW TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AND WITH ITS PASSAGE. IN THE EXTENDED
PART OF THE FCST WILL BE GOING MORE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH DOES
GO WITH VERY COLD TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. A STRONG ARCTIC RIDGE SINK-
ING DOWN OFF THE PLAINS SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CHILL. 41

[Rgv20]

^haha thats funny because its true........I still like you GFS

[Rgv20]

From this morning Brownsville discussion

.LONG TERM.../6 PM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK AS PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
TYPE WEATHER ONGOING INTO FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND ALLOW RETURN FLOW
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ANTICIPATED BY SATURDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING SAT
NIGHT. AXIS OF SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST EARLY SUNDAY WITH A SHORT-
LIVED PERIOD OF CLEARING. NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY
AND A MORE POTENT AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CHILLY AND WET CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

[srainhoutx]

Imapct Weather has just released an updated video. Enjoy...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather