Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

FWNWS has been a downer with this storm.

Did you take a look at the GFS? right on cue for February! Just looking at the maps you'd be asking how strong is the Nino. Everything looks so suppressed and cold, we're bound to hit the jackpot. It's not just the deterministic models hinting at it...

Yeah ... how about that 12z GFS at 360 hours?!

Snowstormmageddon for Texas.

I just wanted to point this out This was last Monday. Credit to Srainhoutx also for giving us subtle, yet just enough to keep us on the edge of our seat, hints.

Edit: Also to orangeblood for depicting out the monster west coast ridge.

[Tireman4]

[Snowstormmageddon for Texas.[/quote]

I just wanted to point this out This was last Monday. Credit to Srainhoutx also for giving us subtle, yet just enough to keep us on the edge of our seat, hints.[/quote]


Which is worse? Snowstormmeggedon...or Snowmeggedon?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is going to be cold and slower with the short wave.

[BigB0882]

The 12Z Euro is going to be cold and slower with the short wave.

Is this a prediction or are you looking at it as it is rolling out?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is going to be cold and slower with the short wave.

Is this a prediction or are you looking at it as it is rolling out?

I'm watching the run unfold.

[Turtle]

For 2/8/11, Accuweather has a high of 70° and a low of 25°! I live in East Texas, so rarely do I see a temp drop of that much. 99% chance this won't happen, but just interesting.

[iorange55]

Euro still looking mightyyyyyy cold

[Ntxw]

^ Important thing here is the shortwave is rounding about the trough and further S than 0z! More consolidation. I think the runs should get better and better with that as we get closer.

[txagwxman]

ECMWF no snow...just cold.

[Ivanhater]

What is interesting is the Euro shows a low developing over far inland Texas close to the Texas Panhandle cutting to the Great lakes, while the GFS and Canadian have a Gulf low developing. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[txagwxman]

Gonna be a cold superbowl week.

[funster]

Looks like the cold is gone for the Super Bowl. Back in the 60s by then. But it could mess up travel if there is ice for people coming in from out of town really early - like four days before the game.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the cold is gone for the Super Bowl. Back in the 60s by then. But it could mess up travel if there is ice for people coming in from out of town really early - like four days before the game.

Lets hope so. ECWMF has that ridge out west popping up again superbowl weekend.

[orangeblood]

Looks like the cold is gone for the Super Bowl. Back in the 60s by then. But it could mess up travel if there is ice for people coming in from out of town really early - like four days before the game.

I don't think there's anyway of knowing what the temps are going to be like 12 days from now although the PNA looks like it might start a downward trend. If it does, than the west coast ridge should start to breakdown and we'll finally get some Pacific air in the pattern around here.

[txagwxman]

Looks like the cold is gone for the Super Bowl. Back in the 60s by then. But it could mess up travel if there is ice for people coming in from out of town really early - like four days before the game.

Are u kidding? The Euro cold day 10 (Sat)..wedged in and raining in the 30s in DFW.

[funster]

Looks like the cold is gone for the Super Bowl. Back in the 60s by then. But it could mess up travel if there is ice for people coming in from out of town really early - like four days before the game.

Are u kidding? The Euro cold day 10 (Sat)..wedged in and raining in the 30s in DFW.

Oh didn't see that. I thought the snow/ice was coming on 1st and 2nd. Usually that would mean it is gone by the 3rd and definitely by the 6th (Super Bowl Day). If the cold and precip sticks around for a week that will be a big shocker.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro (and Canadian) are even colder than the 00Z runs. I still don't see much post-frontal moisture, though. And with the front driving well into the southern Gulf by Wednesday, the chances of a coastal low to throw moisture over the cold air are about zero. But the Euro and Canadian do indicate at least a weak disturbance (or two) moving south into Texas later in the week. If that's the case, then we could see passing snow flurries across Texas but no big snow event. And I do not currently see much of a freezing rain threat.

As for Houston, if the 12Z Euro or Canadian verify, then we could be looking at the coldest air of the season by a fair bit. Teens for Houston would be possible, though I wouldn't forecast such temps quite yet. Again, I do not buy the GFS solution at all. I think it holds too much energy back.

Farther east along the LA coast, the cold air could be a little colder than you've already seen, but not as dramatically colder as for the TX coast.

[txagwxman]

12Z Euro (and Canadian) are even colder than the 00Z runs. I still don't see much post-frontal moisture, though. And with the front driving well into the southern Gulf by Wednesday, the chances of a coastal low to throw moisture over the cold air are about zero. But the Euro and Canadian do indicate at least a weak disturbance (or two) moving south into Texas later in the week. If that's the case, then we could see passing snow flurries across Texas but no big snow event. And I do not currently see much of a freezing rain threat.

As for Houston, if the 12Z Euro or Canadian verify, then we could be looking at the coldest air of the season by a fair bit. Teens for Houston would be possible, though I wouldn't forecast such temps quite yet. Again, I do not buy the GFS solution at all. I think it holds too much energy back.

Farther east along the LA coast, the cold air could be a little colder than you've already seen, but not as dramatically colder as for the TX coast.

Yea I wouldn't go for teens in Houston...IAH a concrete jungle now.

[PineyWoods]

12Z Euro (and Canadian) are even colder than the 00Z runs. I still don't see much post-frontal moisture, though. And with the front driving well into the southern Gulf by Wednesday, the chances of a coastal low to throw moisture over the cold air are about zero. But the Euro and Canadian do indicate at least a weak disturbance (or two) moving south into Texas later in the week. If that's the case, then we could see passing snow flurries across Texas but no big snow event. And I do not currently see much of a freezing rain threat.

Is this a shallow cold air mass for us in Texas and will it basically dry out the lower column and cause any precip that falls to evaporate even with the weak impulses moving across? based on these models what would your forecast im temps be for the Tyler area during this cold front next week?

[BigB0882]

Farther east along the LA coast, the cold air could be a little colder than you've already seen, but not as dramatically colder as for the TX coast.

I thought the 12z Euro was even colder for points East of Houston, it seems to get colder the further East you go with the coldest touching down to the MS/AL/FL coast.