Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

You know a crazy term not often tossed around? "Phasing", 3 jets all converging, Polar, Pacific, Southern Jet. Now that would be fun! Just thought I'd say that after daydreaming looking at 0z NAM.

[iorange55]

You know a crazy term not often tossed around? "Phasing", 3 jets all converging, Polar, Pacific, Southern Jet. Now that would be fun! Just thought I'd say that after daydreaming looking at 0z NAM.

I just read up about that and found this article.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/TheDawnAwakening2/comment.html?entrynum=14

[orangeblood]

0Z NAM looks way too slow with the front moving out of Canada

[Ntxw]

You know a crazy term not often tossed around? "Phasing", 3 jets all converging, Polar, Pacific, Southern Jet. Now that would be fun! Just thought I'd say that after daydreaming looking at 0z NAM.

I just read up about that and found this article.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/TheDawnAwakening2/comment.html?entrynum=14

Nice find .

[Ntxw]

Not cold with vengeance on GFS. At 138 snowing hard in the panhandle/OK with vortmax Lubbock/Midland. Not too diff from 18z

[iorange55]

Not cold with vengeance on GFS. At 138 snowing hard in the panhandle/OK with vortmax Lubbock/Midland. Not too diff from 18z

I'll be really bummed if the panhandle gets 12 inches and we get none. It's just the GFS, though.

[BigB0882]

GFS has been consistently holding off on the super cold. I keep hoping it will give in...or just be wrong, haha

[Ntxw]

Stays mostly in Oklahoma with light precip after the cold for DFW. Vorticity is going from Midland-ish to Paris.

dusting ish I-20 north, a foot in Tulsa

[iorange55]

Stays mostly in Oklahoma with light precip after the cold for DFW. Vorticity is going from Midland-ish to Paris.

dusting ish I-20 north, a foot in Tulsa

Yeah, that better change. I think there will be more cold than the GFS is showing (most agree with that) so all we really need is some moisture.

[wall_cloud]

It'd be very difficult for me to see a foot of snowpack on the ground in OK & Texas panhandle and hardly a flake accumulating south of the Red River?

What makes you say that? Its entirely possible and has happened many times.

[wall_cloud]

Not cold with vengeance on GFS. At 138 snowing hard in the panhandle/OK with vortmax Lubbock/Midland. Not too diff from 18z

I'll be really bummed if the panhandle gets 12 inches and we get none. It's just the GFS, though.

move to the Panhandle. I'm sure they would give most of their snow to you if they could.

[iorange55]

Not cold with vengeance on GFS. At 138 snowing hard in the panhandle/OK with vortmax Lubbock/Midland. Not too diff from 18z

I'll be really bummed if the panhandle gets 12 inches and we get none. It's just the GFS, though.

move to the Panhandle. I'm sure they would give most of their snow to you if they could.

I'll get right on that. Once I get there I'll be broke, but it's okay I'll panhandle for food.

[Ntxw]

GFS is very much colder though. Teens coming into the Red River valley, single digits Oklahoma.

[orangeblood]

Stays mostly in Oklahoma with light precip after the cold for DFW. Vorticity is going from Midland-ish to Paris.

dusting ish I-20 north, a foot in Tulsa

This is a good sign for the GFS. It is just now figuring out how to line up all the players on the field and will start fine tuning as we get closer.

My guess is this precip axis will shift south as the models get closer to the event due to it underestimating the cold fronts extent southward. The storm should move along the arctic boundary - the big question is where is that going to set up. I don't think it will be in central Oklahoma.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Actually the GFS is significantly colder, much more in line with the EURO. Buckled.

[BigB0882]

Colder all the way down to the coast or just up in North Texas? I always worry about the cold air stopping before it gets to me...

[wall_cloud]

I love how NWS uses ISENTROPIC ASCENT/UPSLOPE...which means warm advection aloft.

technically it refers to pressure advection. There is usually a correlation between warm (cold) advection and isentropic ascent (descent) but that is not always the case. The geopotential height of the isobars on the isentropic chart rely on the AVERAGE temperature throughout a layer. This doesn't take into account very shallow airmass. I'm just happy they said ascent and not lift!

[Ntxw]

Colder all the way down to the coast or just up in North Texas? I always worry about the cold air stopping before it gets to me...

Not quite that cold down that way yet, the -10 c line goes from Near Del Rio to Paris. Moderates from there, but it's trending colder nonetheless. 0c gets stuck in northern areas of southeast Texas.

So basically the GFS is colder, and way west. Hardly gets cold at all in the southeast.

[TwisterFanatic]

I still like the GFS.

[orangeblood]

Colder all the way down to the coast or just up in North Texas? I always worry about the cold air stopping before it gets to me...

Not quite that cold down that way yet, the -10 c line goes from Near Del Rio to Paris. Moderates from there, but it's trending colder nonetheless. 0c gets stuck in northern areas of southeast Texas.

So basically the GFS is colder, and way west. Hardly gets cold at all in the southeast.

+NAO is finally making a comeback!! and I think will help our winter weather chances around here. Systems have been way too progressive over the past few weeks with the combination of the +PNA/-NAO.