Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Brandon8181]

GFS is very much colder though. Teens coming into the Red River valley, single digits Oklahoma.

Still alot of moisture over running that cold air late Tue / Wed....

Looks like we might be on to something here.

Confidence is def. increasing on my end.

[Brandon8181]

Stays mostly in Oklahoma with light precip after the cold for DFW. Vorticity is going from Midland-ish to Paris.

dusting ish I-20 north, a foot in Tulsa

This is a good sign for the GFS. It is just now figuring out how to line up all the players on the field and will start fine tuning as we get closer.

My guess is this precip axis will shift south as the models get closer to the event due to it underestimating the cold fronts extent southward. The storm should move along the arctic boundary - the big question is where is that going to set up. I don't think it will be in central Oklahoma.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I think its actually going to be across central TX to north TX to southern Oklahoma. Not central oklahoma or northern Oklahoma.

I think the Red river valley will be near the center northern part of the precip area.

[orangeblood]

GFS is very much colder though. Teens coming into the Red River valley, single digits Oklahoma.

Still alot of moisture over running that cold air late Tue / Wed....

Looks like we might be on to something here.

Confidence is def. increasing on my end.

It'll get even better once you check out the Canadian - further south with the low and heavy precip axis. Excellent trends tonight!!!!

[BigB0882]

That sure is a lot further to the west compared to the Euro. Curious to see if the Euro agrees later or not, the Euro had the cold air down to the MS/AL/FL coast and this seems to be Central TX.

[Ntxw]

That sure is a lot further to the west compared to the Euro. Curious to see if the Euro agrees later or not, the Euro had the cold air down to the MS/AL/FL coast and this seems to be Central TX.

I don't think Euro will change much of the cold. Will be cold everywhere, we won't know where until the air mass starts moving. The thing to take from the GFS tonight is that it is no longer holding stance at it's warm bias, gave in and trending colder.

[BigB0882]

That sure is a lot further to the west compared to the Euro. Curious to see if the Euro agrees later or not, the Euro had the cold air down to the MS/AL/FL coast and this seems to be Central TX.

I don't think Euro will change much of the cold. Will be cold everywhere, we won't know where until the air mass starts moving. The thing to take from the GFS tonight is that it is no longer holding stance at it's warm bias, gave in and trending colder.

Good point, I have a hard time letting go of the details.

[Brandon8181]

Here is where I'm at with the Red River Valley forecast...Sherman/Denison area specifically.

Warmer temperatures over the next few days will make for a great end of the week and weekend, then things start to get interesting .

50% Rain Sunday high near 55
50% Rain Monday with a high near 51
60% of Rain/Sleet Mix early changing to snow by 12 p.m. with temperatures falling to 27 by 5 p.m. Some moderate to heavy waves of snow likely.
70% of Snow early Wed. with a high around 25 degrees.

I anticipate greater than 3 inches of snow accumulation for my area with higher amounts in some locations.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Brandon8181]

GFS is very much colder though. Teens coming into the Red River valley, single digits Oklahoma.

Still alot of moisture over running that cold air late Tue / Wed....

Looks like we might be on to something here.

Confidence is def. increasing on my end.

It'll get even better once you check out the Canadian - further south with the low and heavy precip axis. Excellent trends tonight!!!!

I think I'm going to jump on all the models train....nice stuff tonight. GFS even has single digits in parts of Oklahoma on Wed.

[Ntxw]

Wow, you're right, Canadian is cookin up that bacon.



Single digits Red River Valley and teens to the coast.

[BigB0882]

Can someone post the Canadian or provide details?

[Brandon8181]

Stays mostly in Oklahoma with light precip after the cold for DFW. Vorticity is going from Midland-ish to Paris.

dusting ish I-20 north, a foot in Tulsa

This is a good sign for the GFS. It is just now figuring out how to line up all the players on the field and will start fine tuning as we get closer.

My guess is this precip axis will shift south as the models get closer to the event due to it underestimating the cold fronts extent southward. The storm should move along the arctic boundary - the big question is where is that going to set up. I don't think it will be in central Oklahoma.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I think its actually going to be across central TX to north TX to southern Oklahoma. Not central oklahoma or northern Oklahoma.

I think the Red river valley will be near the center northern part of the precip area.

I agree with you. Cold front will move southward, faster than anticipated - pulling precip further south as well. Giving North central TX the best senario for a significant winter weather event.

[Mr. Weather]

Does any of the models show any wintry precip coming into Houston I doubt even if it did that we would get any but just thought I would ask thanks

[wxman22]

So far Models look colder but drier except the Canadian which looks nice for North Texas, as for Houston right now snow chances look small at best.

[BigB0882]

Woah, the Canadian is really cold, look how far the magic line extends...well down into central Mexico.

[Ntxw]

Yeah the CMC is overwhelming it. 1060mb high coming into Montana...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Regardless of the storm, the cold that follows on the CMC is crazy. 510 thicknesses all the way to northeast Texas, with the -20C 850mb isotherm into Oklahoma and the -10C isotherm into northern Mexico! Brrrrrr, that is some serious cold..

[iorange55]

Everyone knock on wood.

[orangeblood]

Does any of the models show any wintry precip coming into Houston I doubt even if it did that we would get any but just thought I would ask thanks

I don't think you'll see any with the storm early next week but I'd pay close attention to any shortwave rounding the base of the massive trough in place later next week. The cold air will be in place and the storm track further south.

[Ntxw]

Ok so every Op model besides the GFS has shown vodka cold at some point. I'd give the GFS another 2 nights . Orangeblood has a very good point. There's been hints of another significant system a few days later, we'll have to monitor that too not too long from now. Canadian has a big cutoff low out west. GFS does about the same thing.

[BigB0882]

I have a question. On the Canadian in the last map where the line is way into the Gulf, there is a small spot of light precip in the Gulf around northern Mexico. Could that form in a Low and ride up and give us along the coast some fun? Or is it leftover precip from something else?