Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

I have a question. On the Canadian in the last map where the line is way into the Gulf, there is a small spot of light precip in the Gulf around northern Mexico. Could that form in a Low and ride up and give us along the coast some fun? Or is it leftover precip from something else?

That's the low I was just talking about (not last frame but 156-180). Depending on where it goes and how much moisture return is available, never know!

[BigB0882]

I have a question. On the Canadian in the last map where the line is way into the Gulf, there is a small spot of light precip in the Gulf around northern Mexico. Could that form in a Low and ride up and give us along the coast some fun? Or is it leftover precip from something else?

That's the low I was just talking about (not last frame but 156-180). Depending on where it goes and how much moisture return is available, never know!

Awesome, I am learning to read these things after all! Thanks for all of your help, it is the only way I could ever figure this stuff out. Your patience and wisdom is much appreciated!

[wall_cloud]

BigB, please take the QPF (precip) generated by the model with a grain of salt. First, models are horrendous out to day 7 but if you pay attention to anything that far out, simply follow the synoptic (large) scale trends. Surface features really start to get messy out that far and the QPF fields suffer greatly.

[BigB0882]

Thanks wall_cloud, I was mainly looking at the fact that there was any precip at all which said to me that there could be a possible Low forming in the Gulf and with those temps, that is something we would love to see.

[Ntxw]

Btw UKMet is not far off from the CMC.

[BigB0882]

Btw UKMet is not far off from the CMC.

Brrr, should I take my heavy jacker to the dry cleaners?

[orangeblood]

Btw UKMet is not far off from the CMC.

Yep, the UKMET and more so the JMA has caught onto this pattern much quicker than the other models.

[BigB0882]

I'm reading on another board that the Euro is drastically different but not sure what they mean, most of the posters are from much further north so not sure if they mean just for them or overall. Anyone care to elaborate?

[iorange55]

Euro is not as cold as last nights run. It does seem to have the storm it had a few days ago back, though.

[Ntxw]

Euro is not as cold as last nights run. It does seem to have the storm it had a few days ago back, though.

Yep looks supressed. No phasing with the northern stream yet. Gulf coast watch out!

North Texas to Austin = sneaux

[BigB0882]

Euro is not as cold as last nights run. It does seem to have the storm it had a few days ago back, though.

Yep looks supressed. No phasing with the northern stream yet. Gulf coast watch out!

Bring it!

Would someone mind explaining what the term supressed means with regards to weather?

[iorange55]

I think our snow chances might have gone up tonight.

[Ntxw]

Since we've got a bandwagon going, add the NOGAPS to the mix. Oklahoma to Waco.

[iorange55]

Euro seems to look closer to the GFS than the past nights. Both have the southeast missing most of the cold. I think the GFS is a little colder now, and the Euro has more snow for us.

[Ntxw]

Ok so tonight we've got Canadian going ballistic. GFS and Euro trading currency not extreme, but a good ol fashion blue norther with a storm (storm is looking more and more likely). UKMET and JMA doing their cha cha being ahead of the possie.

For snow:

Track 1 GFS: Midland to Paris, A bit of snow, Oklahoma is nailed

Track 2 Euro: San Angelo to Tyler; Portastorm is finally happy and West/North Texas gets nailed.

Track 3: I don't want to say it because it might jinx things!

Edit: GFS ensembles a blend of both EC and GFS.

[BigB0882]

Why did you mention watch out Gulf coast if the snow is up in north texas? something later in the run changed that or might there be another L like on the Canadian?

[Ntxw]

Why did you mention watch out Gulf coast if the snow is up in north texas? something later in the run changed that or might there be another L like on the Canadian?

Well, the first few frames had a more supressed look. The storm is further south and tracks across the mid south vs cutting into the Lakes. Just the cold air on the Euro turned out not as cold further east like the GFS . Still 144 hours out...again patterns, trends.

[BigB0882]

Thanks. I hope this run of the Euro is just a hiccup, it would be really disappointing to not even get in on the cold! I will latch onto the Canadian for now, haha. I tend to give a lot of weight to the Euro and GFS being that they are similar this run BUT if we end up with a mix of those and the other colder and deeper models then that should still do the Gulf coast proud.

[Ntxw]

Superbowl weekend update from the Euro: Something sinister could be lurking. Looks like cold rain for now just like 12z, mighty close. (GFS and CMC show it too to an extent)

[funster]

The pessimist in me thinks it is going to just get really cold with only a trace of precip.

Super Bowl Sunday will probably be around 60 since winds are expected to be out of the south. It will warm up quickly with sunshine and southerly winds.

The optimist in me thinks it will snow 2 or 3 inches in North Texas. However, I still don't see anything that will impact the Super Bowl. Most of the Super Bowl commentary about the weather will probably be about how nice, sunny and warm it is in Texas. It will feel warm to any incoming Green Bay fans no matter how cold it is anyway