Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

Super Bowl Sunday will probably be around 60 since winds are expected to be out of the south. It will warm up quickly with sunshine and southerly winds.

Sources? . Where do you see it? Euro has mid-30s and raining at Cowboys stadium with 540 thickness near Wichita Falls Saturday. Of course, being this far out it might very well be 60. But there's no evidence currently for the latter half.

[srainhoutx]

Yep after looking at the GFS at more detail , it shows freezing rain/sleet across Texas as impulses move into the cold air, looks like a classic overrunning setup with shallow air which usually= icy conditions, the only problem I see is that the GFS is struggling on what to do with the cold airmass, it basically barely moves the air from hours 150-174, a common problem the GFS has with shallow air masses.

Now will the GFS give over to the Euro solution regarding temps and/or will the Euro give over to the GFS regarding the moisture or somewhere in between? We will see.

I see we had some changes overnight...

Austin/San Antonio this morning from their AFD:

NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING WITH AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA MON-TUE...POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER TROF PASSING OVERHEAD TUESDAY. THEREFORE A BOUT OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY FOR TUE-TUE
EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY
WITH THESE FEATURES BEFORE GOING WITH ANY TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER.
FOR NOW HAVE NOT GONE BELOW FREEZING UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHEN I HAVE
POPS ENDING. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES AT THIS TIME.



Corpus Christi:

GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE SIMILAR WITH ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW NEAR ARIZONA ON
MONDAY WITH THE UKMET FASTER INTO NEW MEXICO. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH BULK OF COLD AIR MOVING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. WILL BROADBRUSH LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST...POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF SHOWED 546
1000-500 THICKNESS LINE PERSISTING ALONG PORT LAVACA-LAREDO LINE
WEDNESDAY. IF COLD AIR PUSH IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
BE A PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN THE REGION. WAY TOO
EARLY TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE WITH MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
LACKING BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING DAYS. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

[DentonGal]

All local DFW mets are on board with the cold next Tuesday, but they're also giving us a 20% chance of snow, stating the moisture should be gone when the cold air hits.

[txagwxman]

All local DFW mets are on board with the cold next Tuesday, but they're also giving us a 20% chance of snow, stating the moisture should be gone when the cold air hits.

That means it will bust.

Euro on board, 6z GFS is close to freezing rain DFW. UKMET is warmer vs yesterday. GEM is 516 thickness Dallas next week --- BITTERLY COLD.

[orangeblood]

All local DFW mets are on board with the cold next Tuesday, but they're also giving us a 20% chance of snow, stating the moisture should be gone when the cold air hits.

That means it will bust.

Euro on board, 6z GFS is close to freezing rain DFW. UKMET is warmer vs yesterday. GEM is 516 thickness Dallas next week --- BITTERLY COLD.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_0z/f120.gif

But you forgot to mention that the UKMET rapidly strengthens the low as it moves across Texas, bringing in the cold air with a full blown blizzard breaking out on the backside of the low. 988mb low, are you kidding me??? Don't think I've ever seen a model forecast a storm that strong across the southern plains

[Mr. Weather]

But you forgot to mention that the UKMET rapidly strengthens the low as it moves across Texas, bringing in the cold air with a full blown blizzard breaking out on the backside of the low. 988mb low, are you kidding me??? Don't think I've ever seen a model forecast a storm that strong across the southern plains[/quote]



according to the model how far south is the low predicted to go

[benrayrog]

Often times there are references to the "southern plains" in posts. What is considered the "southern plains" in relation to weather discussions?

[orangeblood]

But you forgot to mention that the UKMET rapidly strengthens the low as it moves across Texas, bringing in the cold air with a full blown blizzard breaking out on the backside of the low. 988mb low, are you kidding me??? Don't think I've ever seen a model forecast a storm that strong across the southern plains

according to the model how far south is the low predicted to go[/quote]

Right now, it appears to move across northern Texas into southern Arkansas. But with a low that strong, there could be quite a bit of precip on the backside along with rapidly falling height fields as well.

[Kelarie]

I haven't had a chance to keep up with weather and such in the last couple of days, what is it supposed to do for Texarkana, the NE part of Texas? Thanks y'all.

[srainhoutx]

But you forgot to mention that the UKMET rapidly strengthens the low as it moves across Texas, bringing in the cold air with a full blown blizzard breaking out on the backside of the low. 988mb low, are you kidding me??? Don't think I've ever seen a model forecast a storm that strong across the southern plains

987mb, but I digress...

[Tireman4]

But you forgot to mention that the UKMET rapidly strengthens the low as it moves across Texas, bringing in the cold air with a full blown blizzard breaking out on the backside of the low. 988mb low, are you kidding me??? Don't think I've ever seen a model forecast a storm that strong across the southern plains

987mb, but I digress...

YIKES!!!!!!

[orangeblood]

But you forgot to mention that the UKMET rapidly strengthens the low as it moves across Texas, bringing in the cold air with a full blown blizzard breaking out on the backside of the low. 988mb low, are you kidding me??? Don't think I've ever seen a model forecast a storm that strong across the southern plains

987mb, but I digress...

Does anyone remember what the low got down to during the Christmas Eve blizzard of 09' ?

[wxman22]

Euro shows a full fledge winter storm across the state I did not expect that
Edit:Fwiw it even has snow accumulating over half of the state.

[txagwxman]

But you forgot to mention that the UKMET rapidly strengthens the low as it moves across Texas, bringing in the cold air with a full blown blizzard breaking out on the backside of the low. 988mb low, are you kidding me??? Don't think I've ever seen a model forecast a storm that strong across the southern plains

987mb, but I digress...

Yes I did... I was kinda making a point...when everyone is on board, sometimes the forecast will bust.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS AFD FTW

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST THU JAN 27 2011/
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS TODAY
AND BRING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF NORTH TEXAS. ABUNDANT SUN AND SOME WEAK COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING FROM A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN THE WEST WITH A BROAD
TROUGH IN THE EAST. A CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL CONTINUE DEEPEN NEAR BAJA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN OPEN UP
AND LIFT ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO WHEN THE ENERGY ARRIVES...WIDE
SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...
RESULTING IN AN EVEN DEEPER RETURN OF MOISTURE. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO LINE REGARDING
THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. WHAT
MAKES THIS AN INTERESTING SCENARIO IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IS PROGGED TO LAG THE COLD AIR. OF COURSE...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 5
TO 6 DAYS OUT BUT WE ARE GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE SOME TYPE OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS SO WILL A
MENTION A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO TAKE A STAB
AT ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY SINCE TEMPERATURES
LEADING UP TO THE EVENT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MUCH COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...WILL NOT KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S IN 40S. STILL EXPECTING FRIDAY TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY IN A QUITE A WHILE WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING
THE 70S. A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FTW still holding off on anything big for next week, but i think they change their tune by mid weekend as the cold air starts to knock on the door late Sunday and the bulk of the precip yet to come in.

[wxman57]

I'm now extremely confident that I don't know exactly what will happen next week.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff

Calm weather today and Friday before big changes this weekend and early next week.

Weak cold front has passed across the region overnight and will help to reinforce the nice late January weather in place. Winds will swing around to the SE on Friday and begin to return moisture to the region ahead of an upper level low off of Baja this morning. This system will track eastward reaching NW Mexico tonight and into SW TX by late Saturday. Southerly flow induced by pressure falls over W TX will pump moisture northward with PWS values approaching the 1.2-1.4 inch range by late Saturday evening. Increasing lift on a 100kt jet streak and a returning warm front bode well for showers/thunderstorm formation Saturday afternoon/evening over south and south-central Texas spreading into SE TX in the overnight hours. Warm front may reach the coastal sections along a line from Victoria to Wharton to Houston by early Sunday allowing an unstable warm sector south of this boundary. 0-6km shear profiles are strong for the coastal bend region into the southwestern sections of SE TX around Matagorda Bay, but overall instability will be lacking with only 500J/kg of CAPE and models do show capping above the surface suggesting storms that develop will be elevated and have a hard time tapping into any “potential” low level instability. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday night into early Sunday morning south of a line from Victoria to Columbus to Liberty. As of now will keep any severe threat confined to the offshore areas where best moisture is found and also in line with SPC Day 3 forecast reasoning.

This system looks fairly wet with widespread rainfall amounts of .50 to 1.5 inches across south TX into SE TX. Areas of stronger storms and any training could get more rainfall than current QPF suggests and would expect any of these locations to be along or south of US 59.

Early Next Week:
At last models are finally starting to come to some kind of agreement on the weather for next week. Very cold air mass over Canada currently will begin to head southward this weekend as the upper level flow along the US west coast buckles. Powerful arctic frontal boundary will be generated and begin to surge southward down the front range as a large 1050mb high pressure cell drops southward into the northern plains. Frigid air mass will reach the panhandle early Monday and plow southward across the state pushing off the coast late Monday/early Tuesday. Temperatures in the 60’s on Monday will fall rapidly into the 30’s behind the front with the freezing line progressing south into SC TX and the northern parts of our area early Tuesday.

Big issue comes from additional upper level energy digging into the SW US and carving out a trough over New Mexico resulting in lifting of a moist air mass over the cold arctic dome. Appears this trough will eject across the region sometime in the Tuesday night/Wednesday time period resulting in a chance of precipitation. Forecast soundings for late Tuesday afternoon show the critical thickness lines for different P-types extending from Del Rio to Victoria to just north of Houston. The pattern does appear favorable for some kind of winter weather event over parts of Texas Tuesday-Wednesday next week with chances for freezing rain, sleet, snow, and just rain. Way too early to tell what areas will be impacted and how far south the freezing line and freezing/frozen precipitation will be as the models are just now starting to come into agreement. One other point to make it that if the surge of cold air is stronger it may result in less moisture to work with and lower chances for precipitation, but much colder overnight temperatures including the potential for a hard freeze. Stay tuned!

[Tireman4]

I'm now extremely confident that I don't know exactly what will happen next week.

I swear I never ever ever thought I would ever hear you say that. Wow, 2011 is bringing some craziness...goodness gracious...

[txagwxman]

I'm now extremely confident that I don't know exactly what will happen next week.

That about sums it up.

[benrayrog]

I'm now extremely confident that I don't know exactly what will happen next week.

Finally, some logic!