2 PM advisory Recon can't find a closed circulation

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 12:51 pm

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... pt34us.htm

It may be an open wave at 5PM if they can't find it.Airforce met you are in the ball congrats for the good analisis

.

#2 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 12:53 pm

Thanks. Posted that on the 2PM update thread. Just am glad it is not my imagination

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 12:53 pm

RIP TD9~~~~~~~~

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 12:58 pm

Ticka you asked about why the warnings? Well they were posted this morning and if it is downgraded at 5 PM to an open wave they will be lifted.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:00 pm

Also Air Force Met you were right about tracking more west than WNW and that is what the latest lats and lons say.

#6 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:03 pm

Latest obs from recon are not good for #9.

Light and variable winds as far south as 15.8N. There is no LLC near 16.5/69.4 due to the fact there is an east wind 40 miles SSW of that location.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:18 pm

Air Force they pulled the trigger just because they had one report from a ship of a west wind.But they may be from a thunderstorm over the ship at that time and not a true LLC there right?.IMO I would haved waited for recon to make the ultimate call and now they may have to go to the proccess of downgrading a TD.

#8 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:21 pm

They cancelled the recon that morning so they had to chose whether or not to do it based on that. It looked to all of us as if it was just a matter of time before it went so they chose on the side of caution. Which...when dealing with people's lives...you gotta do sometimes.

Lindaloo · #9 Postby **Lindaloo** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:30 pm

Any chance for redevelopment?

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:31 pm

Yes I understand that they are cautious when decisions come to upgrade or not.

#11 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:32 pm

Sure...there is a chance. The downside is the guts of the system are going to be moving over the mtns of hisp. That is going to beat it up pretty good.

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:35 pm

Lindaloo again another GOM system and there it may have favorable conditions as it is weak more west it goes.

Lindaloo · #13 Postby **Lindaloo** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 1:50 pm

Thanks guys!!

Colin · #14 Postby **Colin** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 2:49 pm

TD #9 is dead...

grentz7721 · #15 Postby **grentz7721** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 3:11 pm

Doesn't look like it me. I'm guessing TD9 will still remain a TD for now.

ColdFront77 · #16 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Aug 22, 2003 4:02 pm

This is one storm that should have an over 50% chance of regeneration with all that it was going through to get what convection it gained yesterday.

With the westward movement before a possible northward turn, it will have to go over Cuba, rather than Haiti (the western portion of Hispaniola).

2 PM advisory Recon can't find a closed circulation

2 PM advisory Recon can't find a closed circulation

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