Texas Winter 2010-2011

[downsouthman1]

I've noticed that on the 18Z GFS, through hour 72, comparing the current run to the equivalent 12Z & 6Z runs, it shows the cold air considerably further south now than it did then. 06Z hour 84 showed cold air not even in OK yet. 12Z hour 78 showed it already in northen OK. & current 18Z hour 72 shows it slightly further south almost to Central OK.

Using the same method for the 18Z NAM, the same trend occurs, but in KS instead.

[northtxboy]

I think this storm is going to be a big one,,,I am betting that red river countys will see 10+ in

[Brandon8181]

I think this storm is going to be a big one,,,I am betting that red river countys will see 10+ in

That would be great

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think this storm is going to be a big one,,,I am betting that red river countys will see 10+ in

lol good luck on that one.

[Brandon8181]

I've noticed that on the 18Z GFS, through hour 72, comparing the current run to the equivalent 12Z & 6Z runs, it shows the cold air considerably further south now than it did then. 06Z hour 84 showed cold air not even in OK yet. 12Z hour 78 showed it already in northen OK. & current 18Z hour 72 shows it slightly further south almost to Central OK.

Using the same method for the 18Z NAM, the same trend occurs, but in KS instead.

As far as cold air it doesn't look to me as good as the 00Z run overnight did though?

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cheezyWXguy]

I've noticed that on the 18Z GFS, through hour 72, comparing the current run to the equivalent 12Z & 6Z runs, it shows the cold air considerably further south now than it did then. 06Z hour 84 showed cold air not even in OK yet. 12Z hour 78 showed it already in northen OK. & current 18Z hour 72 shows it slightly further south almost to Central OK.

Using the same method for the 18Z NAM, the same trend occurs, but in KS instead.

As far as cold air it doesn't look to me as good as the 00Z run overnight did though?

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The gfs is just having its classic problem in handling shallow arctic airmasses where it hangs it up too far north. With such a cold dense airmass, this is not very likely to happen and it probably wont work this kink out for the next few days. Like everything else in weather watching, its a wait and see game.

btw, you dont need a disclaimer for every post lol

[Ntxw]

Our system to be looks like it will be forming in the Pacific 24-30 hours from now. It's not the big storm off the NW coast, but the blob of energy south of the Alaskan Aleutian Islands vortex (southern tail piece of it will break off and game on). Apparently it will be bombing soon.

[Texas Snowman]

Afternoon update from KXII-TV meterologist Steve LaNore in Sherman/Denison:

http://www.kxii.com/blogs/weatherblog/W ... 49719.html

"A significant winter weather event is looking more probable for the period Mon-Wed. This means February may well come in on a snowy (or icy) note.

A large blob of frigid air continues to build over far northern Canada. The core of this cold air has been centered near Hudson Bay during the past few days.

Now, the region of frigid temperatures has begun to develop westward, which is a more favorable starting point for the air to reach us. Pressures are steadily rising over the Northwest Territories as an upper ridge builds over Alaska and this is another indicator for the air to begin moving southward soon.

The arctic front dividing this air from much milder air to the south is expected to begin moving our way over the weekend and pass through some time Monday.

Meanwhile, a mid-level trough is being “spun off” of a large low over the eastern Pacific. All computer projections bring this trough into the Texas/Oklahoma region by Tuesday. Given the very cold air in place by that time, ice or snow is looking more likely. Southerly flow over-running the frontal boundary suggests precipitation amounts will be significant."

The depth of the cold air will govern whether we get ice or snow. My best guess at this time is a cold rain event Monday transitioning to freezing rain and sleet, and then finally snow as the cold air gets deeper by Tuesday.

It’s difficult to pinpoint such an event more than 24 hours out, so there’s some wiggle room necessary with this forecast.

Take Care,

Steve LaNore
Chief Meteorologist

KXII-TV

[Texas Snowman]

I think this storm is going to be a big one,,,I am betting that red river countys will see 10+ in

lol good luck on that one.

I like your enthusiasm and hope you are correct. I'm really not trying to rain - or snow - on the parade.

But the last few years notwithstanding (2004's Christmas Eve snowstorm in S. Texas; March 2007's back-to-back Red River Valley events that totalled 15-17" in the Sherman/Denison area; and the huge February 2010 10-12 inch snowstorm across North Texas) double-digit snowfalls anywhere but the Texas Panhandle are exceedingly rare. And even in the Panhandle, they aren't very common.

No one loves snowstorms more than I do - check out my handle - but I wouldn't bet on 10+ just yet. Still too much time, too many variables, and the simple fact that we live in Texas and not upstate New York.

At this point, it seems apparent that it is going to get really cold next week.

And that there will be a winter storm across portions of the southern Great Plains - maybe even a big storm.

But where, what type of precip, and how much is still an unknown IMO. (Edit: Certainly TRENDING in the right direction however!)

[Ntxw]

I just hope the cold air is deep, quick for snow. Otherwise if it isn't cold enough I'll take the cold rain. Ice in the middle of the week with lots of activities going on around DFW is just terrible. Not that a blizzard wouldn't be, but I'd take my chances on one of those .

And Feb 2010 was 10-14 inch . A lot of people forget Haslet was the big winner north of FW.

[Texas Snowman]

You know, it makes me feel almost guilty that I am hoping for snow next week here in North Texas (I said almost...no control over what does or does not happen! )

Like it or not, the Super Bowl is the sports world's biggest event. There has NEVER been a bigger sporting event in Dallas/Fort Worth than the SB.

A lot of people have months and years of planning involved in this, if not outright financial repurcussions from how next week turns out.

[iorange55]

I just hope the cold air is deep, quick for snow. Otherwise if it isn't cold enough I'll take the cold rain. Ice in the middle of the week with lots of activities going on around DFW is just terrible. Not that a blizzard wouldn't be, but I'd take my chances on one of those .

And Feb 2010 was 10-14 inch . A lot of people forget Haslet was the big winner north of FW.

Ice is bad. I agree, but besides of course the record breaking storm last year the best winter storm I can remember is the sleet storm like in 2003. A lot of fun can be had in ice.... :] if done right of course.


Also almost all the local mets now have dropped their temps way down.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is the warmest ensemble member. Might even be a bit more fun.

Funny how 12z ecmwf was the coldest/furthest south of the EC ensembles. lol

[northtxboy]

I think this storm is going to be a big one,,,I am betting that red river countys will see 10+ in

lol good luck on that one.

I like your enthusiasm and hope you are correct. I'm really not trying to rain - or snow - on the parade.

But the last few years notwithstanding (2004's Christmas Eve snowstorm in S. Texas; March 2007's back-to-back Red River Valley events that totalled 15-17" in the Sherman/Denison area; and the huge February 2010 10-12 inch snowstorm across North Texas) double-digit snowfalls anywhere but the Texas Panhandle are exceedingly rare. And even in the Panhandle, they aren't very common.

No one loves snowstorms more than I do - check out my handle - but I wouldn't bet on 10+ just yet. Still too much time, too many variables, and the simple fact that we live in Texas and not upstate New York.

At this point, it seems apparent that it is going to get really cold next week.

And that there will be a winter storm across portions of the southern Great Plains - maybe even a big storm.

But where, what type of precip, and how much is still an unknown IMO. (Edit: Certainly TRENDING in the right direction however!)

I see what u are saying but look at it like this,,,this will be the 2nd year in a row that we have had 2 storms to produce snow in texas and its a la nina year this year,,we are not supposed to get these storms in la nina,,a strong la nina at that,, what are the chance of that??? I do beleave the cold air will arrive early and we will see all snow for a good 18 or more hours. The last storm we got they said ohhhh only 1-3 in for the red river and look we got 8 or more in 7 hours!!



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

I see what u are saying but look at it like this,,,this will be the 2nd year in a row that we have had 2 storms to produce snow in texas and its a la nina year this year,,we are not supposed to get these storms in la nina,,a strong la nina at that,, what are the chance of that??? I do beleave the cold air will arrive early and we will see all snow for a good 18 or more hours. The last storm we got they said ohhhh only 1-3 in for the red river and look we got 8 or more in 7 hours!!

Lets hope so lol. The one earlier this week didn't verify well...even with the cold air coming faster...too early for predictions when the storm is not a storm yet

[WeatherKing]

Delkus mentioned another system w ice as well on super bowl sunday. Now thats long range!

[iorange55]

Delkus mentioned another system w ice as well on super bowl sunday. Now thats long range!

Well I'm hoping for any type of winter weather around here (mostly snow) early this week. An ice storm on that exact weekend, though? That would be pretty cruel.

[Ntxw]

That would be cruel, but the hints haven't been good. This is what the 18z GFS showed on around superbowl time (give or take a day, 252 but it's not far off). Euro has been cold and rainy for several runs now. Now that is far out so keep your fingers crossed for a sunny mild day.

[txagwxman]

After all the teases from this winter, i will not be a happy camper if this is a 37 degree rain for Houston:(

Or worse yet---front passes through gets to 32F after the precip is long gone.

[WeatherKing]

Can't remember the last big ice storm in Dallas, been mostly sleet/snow last few years. There was a forecast for a big ice storm a few years ago and we even had an ice storm warning but the forecast busted. I think heavy precip brought down warm air