Texas Winter 2010-2011
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Looks like GFS is giving Kansas/Missouri in on action too. It's even more north. Due to the storm handing off it's energy to incoming shortwave from the north.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
GFS just doesn't know how to party. Let's hope it's not the one model that is right in this whole mess.
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TwisterFanatic
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GFS is a holding the cold air back wayyyy to long.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:GFS is a holding the cold air back wayyyy to long.
The jumble out west is messing with it's head. Cyclogenesis? I remember someone saying it delays cold air surges.
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MississippiWx
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
One thing going in the favor of a winter storm is that the GFS has been pretty lousy in the medium range recently.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
GFS isn't all that colder either. Stronger high = Less cold in its world.
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Rgv20
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And the GFS panics again with the cold air... 
But on a serious note the 500mb on the GFS is looking good
But on a serious note the 500mb on the GFS is looking good
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BigB0882
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The GFS has been a joke lately and it had a bad handle on the tropics since its update. I take it seriously because it is one of the big ones but in all honesty, why should I give it any more weight than the other models? It hasn't earned that respect this year. Of course, this being said, it will be the only one that gets it right. lol
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Mr. Weather
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Although the gfs cant seem to handle the cold air properly, one thing i find really interesting is all the moisture it has behind the subfreezing line. Since the cold air is likely to move further south than it shows, and the low is expected to round the bottom of the airmass, such post-frontal precip can likely be expected for areas further south into north/central texas, instead of just up in oklahoma and the panhandle. Wow its gonna be exciting to see how this whole event unfolds.
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Re:
Mr. Weather wrote:would u say that our chances for wintry precipitation is going up here in Houston the closer we get ?
If the GFS pans out, forget Houston, Southeastern Oklahoma wouldn't get much if anything.
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downsouthman1
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
I might be looking at an old run. I hope not, but it looks like the 0Z ECMWF is rather impressive. It looks like it shows the changeover in precip type & everything as the column cools. I know it's a tiny bit deceptive because it's 1 frame/day.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
downsouthman1 wrote:I might be looking at an old run. I hope not, but it looks like the 0Z ECMWF is rather impressive. It looks like it shows the changeover in precip type & everything as the column cools. I know it's a tiny bit deceptive because it's 1 frame/day.
Old run. Euro doesn't run for another hour+
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Mr. Weather
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Re: Re:
Ntxw wrote:Mr. Weather wrote:would u say that our chances for wintry precipitation is going up here in Houston the closer we get ?
If the GFS pans out, forget Houston, Southeastern Oklahoma wouldn't get much if anything.
hope it doesn't take the GFS route
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downsouthman1
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Ntxw wrote:downsouthman1 wrote:I might be looking at an old run. I hope not, but it looks like the 0Z ECMWF is rather impressive. It looks like it shows the changeover in precip type & everything as the column cools. I know it's a tiny bit deceptive because it's 1 frame/day.
Old run. Euro doesn't run for another hour+
Thanks for letting me know. I'll keep that in mind in the future.
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Brandon8181
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Re: Re:
Mr. Weather wrote:Ntxw wrote:Mr. Weather wrote:would u say that our chances for wintry precipitation is going up here in Houston the closer we get ?
If the GFS pans out, forget Houston, Southeastern Oklahoma wouldn't get much if anything.
hope it doesn't take the GFS route
I call this GFS run bullish. It does this every few runs - watch the next run will be completely different.
We will see what the Euro says in a little bit.
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Mr. Weather
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Re: Re:
I call this GFS run bullish. It does this every few runs - watch the next run will be completely different.
We will see what the Euro says in a little bit.[/quote]
what would u say is the best model IYO
We will see what the Euro says in a little bit.[/quote]
what would u say is the best model IYO
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downsouthman1
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Re: Re:
Mr. Weather wrote:I call this GFS run bullish. It does this every few runs - watch the next run will be completely different.
We will see what the Euro says in a little bit.
what would u say is the best model IYO[/quote]
No model is the best model. They are used in conjunction.
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Brandon8181
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Re: Re:
downsouthman1 wrote:Mr. Weather wrote:I call this GFS run bullish. It does this every few runs - watch the next run will be completely different.
We will see what the Euro says in a little bit.
what would u say is the best model IYO
No model is the best model. They are used in conjunction.[/quote]
I agree with that..its always good to see what each model has to say and use them all to come up with a good idea of what may happen.
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Mr. Weather
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Re: Re:
Brandon8181 wrote:downsouthman1 wrote:Mr. Weather wrote:I call this GFS run bullish. It does this every few runs - watch the next run will be completely different.
We will see what the Euro says in a little bit.
what would u say is the best model IYO
No model is the best model. They are used in conjunction.
I agree with that..its always good to see what each model has to say and use them all to come up with a good idea of what may happen.[/quote]
makes sense lol
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