Texas Winter 2010-2011

[cheezyWXguy]

I call this GFS run bullish. It does this every few runs - watch the next run will be completely different.

We will see what the Euro says in a little bit.

what would u say is the best model IYO

No model is the best model. They are used in conjunction.[/quote]
I disagree, some models have better track records than others and should therefore be weighted more than others when trying to make forecasts. I do agree that all models should be accounted for and a blend of solutions is generally best, but they are not all equal. However, if I were to pick one out, Id say the euro.

[iorange55]

Let's hope the CMC and the Euro are better or this board will meltdown (myself included)

[downsouthman1]

Let's hope the CMC and the Euro are better or this board will meltdown (myself included)

I can accept that Cheezy.

& Iorange, I would kind of agree. I think a lot of people are really hedging their bets on this storm. It would be a major disappointment if nothing materialized & I would completely understand why FW NWS Office wanted to stay away from this event. The new GFS is garbage.

[Ntxw]

Talk about tense in here lol I don't think I've ever seen anything like this on this board before. I think we should all just step away until Tuesday lol.

[iorange55]

Talk about tense in here lol I don't think I've ever seen anything like this on this board before. I think we should all just step away until Tuesday lol.

You know we couldn't do that even if we tried.

[downsouthman1]

I'm actually quite curious to see the new ECMWF, based on the trend I saw with the last run.

[orangeblood]

Patience people, Would everyone please stop taking the GFS runs so seriously !!!! This model does this over and over and over again. It did it with the two biggest winter storms last winter season and has done this countless times in the past. I don't believe this year is any different.

The trough is hanging back and that's the most important thing to take out of this run.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Could you imagine if this storm materialized for Texas? Even if the GFS finally turned the corner nearer the event, we'd probably bash it to death lol. Death threats to ncep

[TwisterFanatic]

GFS has been "Meh" this winter season. It has missed the last 2 snow storms for my area the last 2 weeks. So, i will take it with a grain of salt. Especially 4-5 days out.

[Rgv20]

The new 00z CMC with a 1041 High right over Amarillo at 0zThurs

[Brandon8181]

Don't give up - its all still good!

Here is where I'm at...Sherman/Denison and surrounding areas

Tonight clear with a low near 37
Friday Sunny and nice with a high near 68
Saturday Sunny, great weather continues with a high near 67
Sunday 40% Rain, cooler with a high around 56
Monday 60% Isolated showers high 54
Tuesday 70% rain changing to sleet, then eventually all snow high of around 40 falling throughout the day
Wednesday 70% Snow early high near 32 falling to a low of around 15! Snow and ice accumulation likely.
Thursday Very cold and clearing with a high near 30

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MississippiWx]

The new 00z CMC with a 1041 High right over Amarillo at 0zThurs

What does the Canadian show in regards to the storm? More suppressed like the European or like the previous Canadian runs?

[Peanut432]

What kind of temperature and winter weather would be associated with a 1041 high for Amarillo?

[downsouthman1]

What kind of temperature and winter weather would be associated with a 1041 high for Amarillo?

It would cause very cold air on the Lee side of it. But I'm guessing somewhat dry air.

[Rgv20]

^Can't really tell by looking at it but looking at the following map its a tad warmer with the same basic setup as previous runs.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 95_100.gif

[Ntxw]

Texas thread seems to be the melting pot. Friends from states surrounding coming to post, very lovely .

[MississippiWx]

Texas thread seems to be the melting pot. Friends from states surrounding coming to post, very lovely .

Gotta go to a thread that's actually active...

[Rgv20]

Forth Worth with the late night update discussion.

WITH REGARD TO NEXT WEEK/S FORECAST...THE ONLY NEW MODEL DATA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SO FAR IS THE 00Z NAM AND 21Z
SREF...AND NOT MUCH CAN BE ADDED AT THIS TIME. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BOTH MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR THAN
EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY SLOW 12Z AND 18Z GFS...BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE FULL
PRODUCT SUITE OF 00Z MODEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE BEST TIMING AND
LIKELY SCENARIO FOR NEXT WEEK/S COLD AND WET WEATHER. 82/JLD

[cheezyWXguy]

What kind of temperature and winter weather would be associated with a 1041 high for Amarillo?

Well it doesnt particularly say anything about precip, but one thing is for sure: if thats the case, its gonna be COLD, and the airmass is not going to get hung up on the red river. Precip amounts/type will be determined by the timing,track and strength of the low pressure wave moving through. I havent looked at the canadian so I wouldnt be able to say about that.

[downsouthman1]

Texas thread seems to be the melting pot. Friends from states surrounding coming to post, very lovely .

Gotta go to a thread that's actually active...

We Texans are very fond of our weather. During the year, there's just a rediculous amount of types of weather we can see. Personally, I'm a lightning fan, but...it's January. Only during El Nino winters am I excited about lightning during winter.