Texas Winter 2010-2011

[iorange55]

Well just got back from my workout and I was hoping for some good news, but eh I'm not sure I see much of it besides it being really cold. Hope the models change.

Any chance you have an explanation of it for me? Crazy thing tonight...Euro gives Omaha, NE over 60 inches of snow lolol.

Lol, I'm not sure. I'm just getting a tad bit worried now that the Euro seems to have a big storm north now too similar but still somehow considerably different than the GFS.

Still things can and will change. Tonight just is not as exciting as last night.

STILL COLD THOUGH! Realllly cold.

Oh and 60 inches of snow for Omaha? Hopefully they have lots of bread.

[South Texas Storms]

Hey guys, I havn't been on in a while. Any chance this storm gives me some snow in Central Texas (College Station) area?

[Ntxw]

^ it's not north in a sense the track is north. It's north that the storm becomes one Giant vortex in the entire southern/central plains. We're cold enough for snow and the storm has a mega gigando backlash, hard to see with the increments on. Accuwx details doesn't load until another hour sigh...

[iorange55]

^ it's not north in a sense the track is north. It's north that the storm becomes one Giant vortex in the entire southern/central plains. We're cold enough for snow and the storm has a mega gigando backlash, hard to see with the increments on. Accuwx details doesn't load until another hour sigh...

Ah.....explains 60 inches. This storm has been really confusing for me. Which is why I'm not even going to forecast anything at all. It still feels like this storm is 10 days out.

[Ntxw]

Save the euro for end of days run LOL. Storm of the millenia. That's something you see in day after tomorrow. 1052mb high, deep low breaking right into and spins.

Edit: NM shortwave afterwards goes to baja and snows there?

[iorange55]

Save the euro for end of days run LOL. Storm of the millenia. That's something you see in day after tomorrow. 1052mb high, deep low breaking right into and spins.

Edit: NM shortwave afterwards goes to baja and snows there?

In a weird way you almost want to see this exact run verify just for the lawls.

[Ntxw]

Maybe it's the staying up late for model runs causing my eyes to deceive me.

[BigB0882]

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

Not sure what to believe now. The GFS has been holding off on the cold but this shows .18 in QPF and in the form of...snow! That is on the 3rd. Does anyone know what Cprcp means? I see some periods show the rain in the Tprcp column and then more in the Cprcp column. Never understood what those meant.

[Ntxw]

Regardless of what happens. Serious cold is coming and I'm becoming more suspicious that the models are under doing it. 1048 on the GFS and 1052 on the euro. Looks like there will be a big storm across the country which will likely aid in dragging it down even more, and if they keep lagging behind energy, who knows. Tonight has been pretty much fail trying to clear the picture but for Oklahoma, I think it's a decent given they will see snow.

[orangeblood]

After looking over all of the model suites tonight, it appears that the main driving factor is the sky rocketing positive NAO that's developing. With the strong west coast ridge (+PNA) and now a southeast ridge developing (+NAO), all the energy coming from the pacific and polar jet streams is forced south and bundles up together across the central conus. What does all of this mean?? Right now, It looks like the development of a massive vortex in the south central US. And with so many players on the field now, it's makes the confidence in any forecast drop exponentially. Fascinating situation that reminds of, like Ntxw mentioned, the 09' Christmas Eve Blizzard but this time with colder air and even more energy to work with.

One other thing: for Portastorm and those in southeast Texas, if you don't see any wintry precip out of this setup, you can blame the +NAO for that one



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Shoshana]

Jim Spencer at KXAN (kxan.com) is starting to mention possibly interesting weather next week

Also on our radar, a mass of very cold air in northern Canada that will arrive into Central Texas on Tuesday. As with most arctic fronts this winter, the bulk of the very cold air will just graze Texas, but we are expecting enough of it to bring widespread freezing temperatures to the area by the middle of next week.

This system will also be accompanied by an area of low pressure, which will likely produce some cold rain in our area Tuesday, and some possible snow and ice in North and West Texas.

It’s worth noting that computer models are not in agreement regarding the timing of the precipitation and cold air. One model suggests some freezing rain, sleet, or snow could even fall in parts of Central Texas Tuesday, so we will be tracking this system very closely for you.

Hmmm... I'm still thinking rain, cold, clear. But I'm hoping for

[Metalicwx220]

^ it's not north in a sense the track is north. It's north that the storm becomes one Giant vortex in the entire southern/central plains. We're cold enough for snow and the storm has a mega gigando backlash, hard to see with the increments on. Accuwx details doesn't load until another hour sigh...

Ah.....explains 60 inches. This storm has been really confusing for me. Which is why I'm not even going to forecast anything at all. It still feels like this storm is 10 days out.

We need one of those in the GOMX. LOL!!!

[txagwxman]

ECMWF went right to the UKMET solution from yesterday and now the low is much further north---forget the snow....told you when everyone is on board---it will bust.

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF went right to the UKMET solution from yesterday and now the low is much further north---forget the snow....told you when everyone is on board---it will bust.

So your official forecast is cold with no snow/sleet/freezing rain for TX?

[txagwxman]

ECMWF went right to the UKMET solution from yesterday and now the low is much further north---forget the snow....told you when everyone is on board---it will bust.

So your official forecast is cold with no snow/sleet/freezing rain for TX?

If ECMWF right---flurries...

These models are still all over the place...they can flip back on the next run...so not sure, but if the low tracks north the bulk of snow will be in the Panhandle into OK and not DFW. GEM further north, but latest UKMET further south. GFS further north and a non-factor for DFW.

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF went right to the UKMET solution from yesterday and now the low is much further north---forget the snow....told you when everyone is on board---it will bust.

So your official forecast is cold with no snow/sleet/freezing rain for TX?

If ECMWF right---flurries...

These models are still all over the place...they can flip back on the next run...so not sure, but if the low tracks north the bulk of snow will be in the Panhandle into OK and not DFW. GEM further north, but latest UKMET further south. GFS further north and a non-factor for DFW.

Thanks for the clarification,txagwxman.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
359 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2011

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 01 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 04 2011

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS AGREEABLE WITH THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO
OF AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF EXTENDING FROM NERN CANADA SWWD INTO THE
SWRN CONUS... LIKELY WITH SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN SRN CANADA/NRN
TIER CONUS FLOW AND WRN/SRN CONUS FLOW. THIS TROF WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A MEAN RIDGE THAT SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE ERN PAC/WRN
CANADA ALBEIT WITH SOME CHANGE IN SHAPE OVER TIME. WHILE A GOOD
CONSENSUS EXISTS WITH THE LARGE SCALE MEAN EVOLUTION... THERE IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS DUE TO THE SPLIT FLOW
NATURE OF THE NOAM PATTERN AND ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTIES PRESENTED
BY ERN PAC ENERGY THAT MAY TRY TO PASS THRU THE MEAN RIDGE BY
MID-LATE WEEK.

THE MOST PROMINENT SFC SYSTEM FOR WHICH SHRTWV UNCERTAINTIES COME
INTO PLAY IS FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TUE ONWARD.
TO VARYING DEGREES THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE MADE MEANINGFUL NWWD
ADJUSTMENTS FROM FAIRLY SUPPRESSED TRACKS IN MULTIPLE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE ECMWF TREND IS MORE EXTREME AS ITS PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
WERE ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE NEW 00Z RUN IS NOW
ON THE NWRN SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE CANADIAN IS A FAST EXTREME TO
BRING SWRN CONUS ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS AND IS ALSO IN THE NWRN
PART OF THE SPREAD... WHILE THE UKMET TRACK IS NOT QUITE AS FAR
NWWD AS ITS PREVIOUS RUN. OVERALL PREFER A GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN THAT FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF LATEST AND RECENT
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY OF SHRTWV DETAILS AND SIGNIFICANT
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... BY WED NIGHT-FRI THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD REGARDING ENERGY THAT MAY TRY TO PASS THRU THE ERN PAC MEAN
RIDGE. THE 00Z ECMWF AND SLOWER 00Z GFS BOTH SEEM A LITTLE STRONG
SO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND USED FOR THE PLAINS/ERN CONUS SYSTEM
PROVIDES A MORE TOLERABLE SOLN AT THIS TIME. THE GEFS MEAN IS A
LITTLE EXTREME WITH ITS SLOWER TIMING/WWD ELONGATION OF THE TROF
SETTLING OVER THE SWRN CONUS SO INCLUSION OF THE ECMWF MEAN TONES
DOWN THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST.

WHILE DAYS 5-7 WED-FRI FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GEFS/12Z ECMWF
MEANS... MISSING DATA DUE TO EARLIER COMMS ISSUES PRECLUDED USE OF
THE ECMWF MEAN FOR DAYS 3-4. THUS THE EARLIER PART OF THE FCST
STARTED WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SOLNS TO ARRIVE AT AN
ACCEPTABLE COMPROMISE.

RAUSCH

[Portastorm]

Nice forecast discussion this morning out of the NWS Fort Worth office. Here is the relevant part about next week:

THINGS REALLY GET INTERESTING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO NORTH TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A MEAN TROF OVER THE CENTRAL US AND RIDGING OFF THE PAC
NW...HOWEVER THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FINER
DETAILS. A STRONG S/W WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER NW CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS S/W WILL MERGE
WITH ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME RESULTING IN A DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN US BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS CANADA INTO THE
CONUS...IT APPEARS THAT A CHUNK OF COLD WILL HEAD SOUTH AS THE
POLAR VORTEX OSCILLATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
AMONG THE GUIDANCE CONCERNS THE HANDLING OF RIDGING OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS ACTUALLY PULLED SOUTH. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN THE 00Z GFS...AND
EVEN CLOSE OFF A SMALLER VORTEX OVER THE CENTRAL US BY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS OF -10C MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...ONE MAIN THING WORTH NOTING...
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO KEEP A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION /LIKELY ALL SNOW/ IN THE COLD AIR WELL REMOVED FROM
NORTH TEXAS...CLOSER TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH
IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN
THAT SCENARIO WE WOULD LIKELY INITIALLY SEE ALL RAIN ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...
HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS TO QUICKLY BE SHUNTED EASTWARD SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE NARROWED DOWN AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE EVENT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE 50 POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY AND
MENTION FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE DAY. CHANGES
IN MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OTHER MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH WINDS. HAVE UNDERCUT THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S
WED THROUGH FRI WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS WED NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
DURING THE DAY TUE/WED WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

[txagwxman]

Nice forecast discussion this morning out of the NWS Fort Worth office. Here is the relevant part about next week:

THINGS REALLY GET INTERESTING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO NORTH TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A MEAN TROF OVER THE CENTRAL US AND RIDGING OFF THE PAC
NW...HOWEVER THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE FINER
DETAILS. A STRONG S/W WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER NW CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS S/W WILL MERGE
WITH ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME RESULTING IN A DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN US BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS CANADA INTO THE
CONUS...IT APPEARS THAT A CHUNK OF COLD WILL HEAD SOUTH AS THE
POLAR VORTEX OSCILLATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
AMONG THE GUIDANCE CONCERNS THE HANDLING OF RIDGING OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS ACTUALLY PULLED SOUTH. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN THE 00Z GFS...AND
EVEN CLOSE OFF A SMALLER VORTEX OVER THE CENTRAL US BY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS OF -10C MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...ONE MAIN THING WORTH NOTING...
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO KEEP A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION /LIKELY ALL SNOW/ IN THE COLD AIR WELL REMOVED FROM
NORTH TEXAS...CLOSER TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH
IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN
THAT SCENARIO WE WOULD LIKELY INITIALLY SEE ALL RAIN ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...
HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS TO QUICKLY BE SHUNTED EASTWARD SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE NARROWED DOWN AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE EVENT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE 50 POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY AND
MENTION FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE DAY. CHANGES
IN MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE OTHER MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH WINDS. HAVE UNDERCUT THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S
WED THROUGH FRI WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS WED NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
DURING THE DAY TUE/WED WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

Clip notes?

[Portastorm]

Heh, heh txagwxman ... yeah, it was a bit long.

But I like how they give the situation a good, thorough discussion. Most AFDs around Texas offices this morning did not for whatever reason.

Overnight trends are disconcerting but I guess we still have a ways to go on this one.

[gboudx]

Heh, heh txagwxman ... yeah, it was a bit long.

But I like how they give the situation a good, thorough discussion. Most AFDs around Texas offices this morning did not for whatever reason.

Overnight trends are disconcerting but I guess we still have a ways to go on this one.

Dunn and Cavanaugh always write, good, detailed discussions.