Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3741 Postby **txagwxman** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 7:54 am

If ECMWF right with the track (which it probably isn't), there won't be any freezing rain...the rain will end in Dallas.

#3742 Postby **txagwxman** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 8:21 am

There could be a big tornado outbreak on Tuesday over LA/MS.

#3743 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 8:36 am

I'm glad that those overnight model runs really cleared things up as far as next week's weather.

#3744 Postby **txagwxman** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 8:37 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm glad that those overnight model runs really cleared things up as far as next week's weather.

Well at least it will be cold...

#3745 Postby **srainhoutx** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 8:44 am

Yep. As clear as mud. This sort of reminds me of the Post Christmas EC storm where the models sent the storm out to sea to only bring that storm back closer to the EC within 48 hours. There does some seem to be a theme this season regarding guidance struggling right up to the event. You have to love these transitions with NAO/AO telecommunications. Always a challenge, it seems.

#3746 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:15 am

models did this exact same thing last Fed 11th, and we all loved the foot of snow that fell across DFW!!!!

I had 11.5" at the house......

#3747 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:17 am

I'm watching temps/pressure in NW Canada and comparing today's 12Z obs from yesterday's. Temperatures just north of Alberta dropped 20-30 degrees between 12Z yesterday and 12Z today (-2 to +8F yesterday, -20F to -30F today. Pressures rose a good 25-30mb in the area, too (1006mb yesterday - 1034mb today). The cold air does appear to be on the move south from the Pole.

#3748 Postby **srainhoutx** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:23 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm watching temps/pressure in NW Canada and comparing today's 12Z obs from yesterday's. Temperatures just north of Alberta dropped 20-30 degrees between 12Z yesterday and 12Z today (-2 to +8F yesterday, -20F to -30F today. Pressures rose a good 25-30mb in the area, too (1006mb yesterday - 1034mb today). The cold air does appear to be on the move south from the Pole.

I noticed this as well. The Polar Vortex is starting to pull that air mass S now. It was good to see that development this morning and certainly cleared up that issue regarding the key ingredient needed for any chance of wintry weather. Now if the Pacific storm continues to organize and begins the drop SE, we'll have all the players on the table. It will be interesting to see if the Northern Stream energy closes off as suggested by the 09Z SREF as well.

southerngale · #3749 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:29 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm watching temps/pressure in NW Canada and comparing today's 12Z obs from yesterday's. Temperatures just north of Alberta dropped 20-30 degrees between 12Z yesterday and 12Z today (-2 to +8F yesterday, -20F to -30F today. Pressures rose a good 25-30mb in the area, too (1006mb yesterday - 1034mb today). The cold air does appear to be on the move south from the Pole.

Well, if it's gonna be cold anyway (like you, I'm yearning for spring), let's hope that cold is packing a Supersoaker Wars Shotblast Snow Blaster, WITH a scope to seek out the snow lovers.

TeamPlayersBlue · #3750 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:42 am

I saw the Euro solution in the middle of the night and i couldnt believe what it was predicted. Im on pins and needles waiting for the next run.

#3751 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:47 am

Interesting to see the models having a hard time with this cold coming out of Canada. What is certain is the cold is certainly there and heading South.

If the GFS is right, February is going to be very active and very cold, so even if this system does not work out for some, there looks to be many more opportunities.

#3752 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:00 am

southerngale wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm watching temps/pressure in NW Canada and comparing today's 12Z obs from yesterday's. Temperatures just north of Alberta dropped 20-30 degrees between 12Z yesterday and 12Z today (-2 to +8F yesterday, -20F to -30F today. Pressures rose a good 25-30mb in the area, too (1006mb yesterday - 1034mb today). The cold air does appear to be on the move south from the Pole.

Well, if it's gonna be cold anyway (like you, I'm yearning for spring), let's hope that cold is packing a Supersoaker Wars Shotblast Snow Blaster, WITH a scope to seek out the snow lovers.

I love it!! :lol:

The Portastorm Weather Center will be sending you a job application in the mail for our marketing department. :wink:

Mr. Weather · #3753 Postby **Mr. Weather** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:04 am

does it look like the wintry mix is moving closer to the coast away from it

#3754 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:08 am

Mr. Weather wrote:does it look like the wintry mix is moving closer to the coast away from it

Overnight runs are farther north with winter precip - Red River and north into Oklahoma.

#3755 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:10 am

Mr. Weather wrote:does it look like the wintry mix is moving closer to the coast away from it

Mr. Weather, had you gone back over a few pages and looked over the posts, you would have discovered the very same thing (what Wxman57's reply to your post said). I encourage you to be a little more self sufficient in this regard. Thanks.

Mr. Weather · #3756 Postby **Mr. Weather** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:13 am

Portastorm wrote:
Mr. Weather wrote:does it look like the wintry mix is moving closer to the coast away from it

Mr. Weather, had you gone back over a few pages and looked over the posts, you would have discovered the very same thing (what Wxman57's reply to your post said). I encourage you to be a little more self sufficient in this regard. Thanks.

no i did not go back and look

#3757 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:15 am

Mr. Weather wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Mr. Weather wrote:does it look like the wintry mix is moving closer to the coast away from it

Mr. Weather, had you gone back over a few pages and looked over the posts, you would have discovered the very same thing (what Wxman57's reply to your post said). I encourage you to be a little more self sufficient in this regard. Thanks.

no i did not go back and look

Yes, we know. Next time, I suggest you do that (go back and look) and then you can discover what has been said/posted instead of having folks repeat things.

Mr. Weather · #3758 Postby **Mr. Weather** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:17 am

Yes, we know. Next time, I suggest you do that (go back and look) and then you can discover what has been said/posted instead of having folks repeat things.[/quote]

sorry for the inconvenience

#3759 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:26 am

We now return to our regularly-scheduled forum discussion.

Just checking the Euro 2m temps for next week. Even though the Euro is MUCH warmer at 850mb over Texas, it still brings the 25F isotherm nearly to the mid to upper TX coast on Thursday with highs in the mid 30s around Houston on Wednesday.

#3760 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:28 am

Mr Weatherman,

There are 5 to 6 weather models we follow here on the board, and they all have their own idea of whats going to happen, some models follow each other while others just act crazy. Models also flip flop back and forth over the course of the coming event, that's why it's so hard to nail down any creditable forecast 5 to 6 day out.

It's great having the Pro Mets here to help us all understand what the models are telling us at each run....Thanks Guys

I still think the models have the low to far to the north and NTX isn't out of the running yet, not till Monday at least.

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