Texas Winter 2010-2011

[benrayrog]

That giant sucking sound you hear is the air leaving the room.

[Ntxw]

To answer your question, YES.

Last February had us in a snow event 4 days out only to back off till the last 24 hrs when it all came together and we got our foot. This will be pretty much the same way.

Canadian didn't back off on it though...same with the Xmas eve blizzard.

[cycloneye]

Here is the graphic of the forecast about the positive NAO that our friend orangeblood was talking about this morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS all OKIE, but maybe something with the second wave.

GFS is such a joke...

This run is not even looking all that great up here. It shows most of the precip. falling as rain in OKC before gradually transitioning to some light wintry precip. towards the end of the event.

Definitely a big change from the 8-12 inches of snow it was showing yesterday...

[downsouthman1]

GFS all OKIE, but maybe something with the second wave.

GFS is such a joke...

This run is not even looking all that great up here. It shows most of the precip. falling as rain in OKC before gradually transitioning to some light wintry precip. towards the end of the event.

Definitely a big change from the 8-12 inches of snow it was showing yesterday...

Hopefully the GEM will have good news.

Nope; also trash.

[wxman57]

Still think we will see freezing precip (hopefully not freezing rain, that would suck). Then it will warm up to 50 or 60 for the Super Bowl.

The meteograms show a 2 degree temp on 2-12. Brrr.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDAL

12Z run is 20 degrees warmer than the 6Z run in the 192-384 hour range across Dallas and Houston.

[DonWrk]

Special Weather Statements issued for western north Texas and just north of the Red River.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

1026 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

...BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY FOR PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...

WINTER WEATHER WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL AS THE CHANCE OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION... ALTHOUGH THE TYPE AND AMOUNT OF WINTER
PRECIPTIATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL. MEANWHILE... A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS COOL AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTH
AND WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER... LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
MAYBE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MUCH
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY... WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
COLDER AIR LEADING TO EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS... WITH BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... THERE CONTINUES
TO BE UNCERTAINTIES AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AS TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE... TIMING OF WHEN THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN... AND
HOW MUCH WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY RECEIVE ONE TO ALL OF
THE TYPES OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW. RESIDENTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AS NEW
DATA IS RECEIVED.


$$

[Ntxw]

Black and white charts of GGEM has a 1058mb high coming into Montana lol. Crazy...

[benrayrog]

Black and white charts of GGEM has a 1058mb high coming into Montana lol. Crazy...

In layman's terms that means?

[srainhoutx]

Black and white charts of GGEM has a 1058mb high coming into Montana lol. Crazy...

Look at 144. Big change for the Canadian (GEM).

[Brandon8181]

I only have one question..?

Where is Portastorm...

"You want snow, YOU GOT SNOW"

?????

Help...

[downsouthman1]

Black and white charts of GGEM has a 1058mb high coming into Montana lol. Crazy...

Look at 144. Big change for the Canadian (GEM).

Is this showing a cutoff low hot on the heels of the Tuesday storm?

[Ivanhater]

My Gosh...a 1059 High coming down for the Northern Plains

[Portastorm]

I only have one question..?

Where is Portastorm...

"You want snow, YOU GOT SNOW"

?????

Help...

This image describes Portastorm's current emotional state:

[Ntxw]

I don't think I've ever seen something like this before from the models.

Either 1: The models are going nuts and are having extreme difficulties (not the storm, the cold/overall pattern)

Or 2: Something historic is happening and we've just never seen it enough to put it all together.

[orangeblood]

Black and white charts of GGEM has a 1058mb high coming into Montana lol. Crazy...

Look at 144. Big change for the Canadian (GEM).

Looks like everyone can blame the NAO for this debacle . It's preventing any energy from cutting south and east enough to cause any winter weather around here, especially across the southern 2/3rds of Texas.

Now, one thing of interest to me is the energy that hangs back across the southwest later next week. This could be a very good setup for an overrunning event, with weak impulses moving across while cold air is already firmly established across the state. Someone just needs to figure out how we going to get the moisture in here???

[Brandon8181]

I don't think I've ever seen something like this before from the models.

Either 1: The models are going nuts and are having extreme difficulties (not the storm, the cold/overall pattern)

Or 2: Something historic is happening and we've just never seen it enough to put it all together.

Something historic would be great

[Ivanhater]

I am becoming more interested in the pockets of energy swinging through after the cold air gets established.

[newtotex]

Will we have a definite idea of whats going to happen by sunday?

[Ntxw]

Will we have a definite idea of whats going to happen by sunday?

Lets hope so, from the looks of things we might not until Tuesday evening lol.