Texas Winter 2010-2011

[wxman57]

does that cut-off low mean snow for us?

Not unless the air across central Texas is a good bit colder than the models are forecasting. It'll be another 2-3 days before we have much confidence in where there may be any winter precip in Texas.

[downsouthman1]

does that cut-off low mean snow for us?

Not necessarily because there's (again) too many variables. Like how much cold air will there be, since this wouldn't hit us until maybe Saturday, about 4 or so days after the Tuesday storm that drops temps? Also, like what's the exact path of the storm? & how much moisture can it tap into?

[iorange55]

Can't see any models really not by a computer. Been reading though . Still looks the same but more confusing? Maybe by next winter we'll know

[Ivanhater]

Euro sure is keeping the ridge out west pumped in the extended

[South Texas Storms]

This isn't going to be our last chance for wintry precip this winter...right?

[Ntxw]

Euro sure is keeping the ridge out west pumped in the extended]

Yep, still no signs of a big warm up of significance for Wxman57. He's already seen his shadow this winter . The arctic keeps ejecting polar vortexes into Hudson Bay.

[wxman22]

This isn't going to be our last chance for wintry precip this winter...right?

Um technically there's no way of knowing that unless someone has a crystal ball...

[orangeblood]

The Japanese Model starting showing this scenario on yesterday's run and I thought it was smoking some of that japanese herb!!! Looks like it was ahead of the game once again. That model is very underutilized

[txagwxman]

I am confident it won't snow in Dallas Tuesday. I am going against the grain and all the NWS / TV guys.

[Portastorm]

The Japanese Model starting showing this scenario on yesterday's run and I though it was on crack!!! Looks like it was ahead of the game once again. That model is very underutilized

Please clarify what you mean by "this scenario"?

[orangeblood]

The Japanese Model starting showing this scenario on yesterday's run and I though it was on crack!!! Looks like it was ahead of the game once again. That model is very underutilized

Please clarify what you mean by "this scenario"?

Cut-off low forming over southern California by later next week.

[brewskymc]

I am confident it won't snow in Dallas Tuesday. I am going against the grain and all the NWS / TV guys.

No snow... or no frozen/freezing precip at all? And is that your final answer (official forecast)?

[Portastorm]

The Japanese Model starting showing this scenario on yesterday's run and I though it was on crack!!! Looks like it was ahead of the game once again. That model is very underutilized

Please clarify what you mean by "this scenario"?

Cut-off low forming over southern California by later next week.

OK, thanks. Just wanted to make sure we all understood what you were getting at.

Meanwhile, txagwxman lays down the gauntlet!! Four days out and he says "No snow for you, Dallas."

[txagwxman]

The Japanese Model starting showing this scenario on yesterday's run and I thought it was smoking some of that japanese herb!!! Looks like it was ahead of the game once again. That model is very underutilized

Yesterday someone was all bullish on the Jap model, but it looked closer the UKMET.

[txagwxman]

I am confident it won't snow in Dallas Tuesday. I am going against the grain and all the NWS / TV guys.

No snow... or no frozen/freezing precip at all? And is that your final answer (official forecast)?

My official---take it with a grain of salt.

[txagwxman]

[orangeblood]

I am confident it won't snow in Dallas Tuesday. I am going against the grain and all the NWS / TV guys.

Pretty Bold forecast 4 days out with all of the phasing issues going on with the models and it's handling of shallow arctic air masses. You're probably right but the low forming along the front should pull down some mighty cold air and precip on the backside. It's a close call!!

[Portastorm]

What are we looking at here, sir?

[brewskymc]

I am confident it won't snow in Dallas Tuesday. I am going against the grain and all the NWS / TV guys.

No snow... or no frozen/freezing precip at all? And is that your final answer (official forecast)?

My official---take it with a grain of salt.

Lol... Judging by the track record of our local TV mets and NWS... you are probably right. If/when they jump off board, I'll jump back on.

[South Texas Storms]

I think that is the Japanese model