Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

Starting to get a gut feeling about this one. I don't know if that's good or bad lol.

I call for a PWC briefing to calm down the masses to prevent the ICU Portastorm

Unfortunately, the Portastorm Weather Center director has had his schedule pre-empted by the "real boss" (i.e. his wife) and any briefings will have to occur late this afternoon at the earliest.

However, IMHO and FWIW (which ain't much!), anyone south of a Lubbock to Waxahachie to Lufkin line should expect nothing more than rain from the Mon-Tues event. You Metroplexers may get in a little "fun" but WacoWx and me and our friends in SE Texas should probably temper expectations. Perhaps mid-week and beyond will offer a little more drama for us.

The post above is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

However, IMHO and FWIW (which ain't much!), anyone south of a Lubbock to Waxahachie to Lufkin line should expect nothing more than rain from the Mon-Tues event. You Metroplexers may get in a little "fun" but WacoWx and me and our friends in SE Texas should probably temper expectations. Perhaps mid-week and beyond will offer a little more drama for us.

Thanks for the forecast Portastorm! I am not convinced how much cold air is being held back. I think from the hill country to Texarkana is still very much in game. As you've mentioned earlier it is still very early at least until tomorrow when better data is in. We are also entering the lock zone for the models. How they trend the next 24-48 hours will be very important, things usually come back at this range.

The post above is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a deeper trough as the U/A disturbance dives into N MX. The GFS is trending colder as well...

[txagwxman]

21F IAH THUR?

[Rgv20]

Looks like the 12z GFS is the coldest run yet.....the 850mb 0c line is way down in central Mexico...

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the 12z GFS is the coldest run yet.....the 850mb 0c line is way down in central Mexico...

Veracruz, in fact...

[Ntxw]

DFW is at least 78 hours below freezing if not more and 40+ hours behind -10c at 850

[downsouthman1]

I'm a little surprised to see the NAM & GFS change their tune so much regarding temps within the last 2 model runs, but especially the 12Z models.

[Rgv20]

Its going to be interesting to see the 12z GFS ensembles..

[orangeblood]

The upper air pattern is starting to look eerily similar to the 09' Christmas Eve storm but this time around there's even colder air coming into the system. Although, This appears to be more of an open trough moving through rather than a closed upper low that eventually formed with that one. With that in mind, this should be your classic transition from rain to freezing rain, sleet then snow rather than just rain to snow with the Christmas Eve storm. Not ready to make my forecast official quite yet but models are starting to swing back in our favor for wintry precip (North and west of a line from Eastland to Hillsboro over to Texarkana)

Also, looks like DFW might have a chance a single digits either Wednesday or Thursday morning. Due to the High pressure parked overhead and snowcover either on the ground or very close by.

The post above is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

GGEM still going nuts and spitting out 1060s highs. 1062 this go round. Also has precip for N and NE Texas in the colder air.

[orangeblood]

[quote="Ntxw"]GGEM still going nuts and spitting out 1060s highs. 1062 this go round. Also has precip for N and NE Texas in the colder air.

Yep, Canadian much further south with the low and precip

[Ntxw]

Trend this morning has been to take the southern shortwave through northern Mexico vs AZ/NM. Perhaps changes are ahead...Euro please.

Edit: Longer range CMC (144hrs) has a powerful cutoff system in northern Mexico just SW of El Paso. Talk about juicy

[wxman57]

21F IAH THUR?

Yeah, here's a meteogram of 2m temps. Of course, if the Canadian verifies then lows will be a good bit higher due to clouds:

[jasons2k]

That temperature/dewpoint spread is pretty scary if you ask me. If we manage to clear out and have one of those calm, clear nights, I am afraid that 22 depicted may be too high for a morning low.

[gpsnowman]

Trend this morning has been to take the southern shortwave through northern Mexico vs AZ/NM. Perhaps changes are ahead...Euro please.

Edit: Longer range CMC (144hrs) has a powerful cutoff system in northern Mexico just SW of El Paso. Talk about juicy

Will temps be cold enough withis system to produce winter fun should it verify? Been reading about another possible storm around Super Bowl Sunday. Could this be it?

[Brandon8181]

Well, I'm pleased that things seem to be looking more up this morning.

I've updated my forecast...Generally for Sherman/Denison and surrounding areas.

Today much warmer with highs in the 70's. Southerly winds will continue to feed in moisture from the south.
Sunday Mild with a 40% chance of showers high near 60.
Monday 60% Rain showers likely with a high near 52.
Tuesday High near 48 around (midnight) with a 80 % chance of rain early, changing to sleet, then finally changing to all snow by 2 p.m. Temperature should approach 34 by 11 a.m. then fall to near 26 by 5 p.m. There will be a few bands of moderate to heavy precip over the area which should lead to some accumulation across the area. Due to these areas of heavy bands I'm going to keep my 3 inch or more accumulation in my forecast. However, fine tuning will likely be needed over the next day or two. Snow will decrease from west to east across the area.
Wednesday will be very cold with a high near 22 with a 30% flurries during the very early morning hours with clearing skies throughout the day.

Furthermore, I do think DFW area will get winter weather...

Enjoy this beautiful Saturday !

The post above is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

That temperature/dewpoint spread is pretty scary if you ask me. If we manage to clear out and have one of those calm, clear nights, I am afraid that 22 depicted may be too high for a morning low.

Yeah, we don't see a dewpoint near zero here very often. Lots of room for colder temps there if the wind speed is lower.

[Kennethb]

As bad as the Canadian is down here for winter and tropical storms. Is the Canadian model reliable in Canada?

[PineyWoods]

Yeah, we don't see a dewpoint near zero here very often. Lots of room for colder temps there if the wind speed is lower.

You mentioned to me a few days ago that this arctic air mass was actually going to be deeper. Do you still feel that way? We are 200 miles north of Houston here in Tyler. Do you think we will still see temps here in the low teens Wed & Thur?