Texas Winter 2010-2011

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3981 Postby iorange55 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:08 pm

Man the 12z sure looks cold. If we get some ice before the precip ends it's going to feel and "look" the coldest it has in a long long time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3982 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:12 pm

12z euro looks like it's going to join the stronger/a bit south trend with the shortwave. Nothing dramatic, but overall this morning has been MUCH better.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3983 Postby iorange55 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:12z euro looks like it's going to join the stronger/a bit south trend with the shortwave. Nothing dramatic, but overall this morning has been MUCH better.



I will greatly take this morning over last. I'd say we're starting to respond to treatment.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3984 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:21 pm

^ If everything goes well tonight, tomorrow's runs will be rehab.

Euro 72

Image
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#3985 Postby funster » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:24 pm

Looks like if we get any frozen precip it will be freezing rain, not nice snow. :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3986 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:25 pm

HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion:

...UPPER LOW MOVING FROM N. CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...

PREFERENCE: UKMET

EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALMOST ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON
INFLUENCES FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA (SEE
SYSTEM ABOVE)...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
WITH THE LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE NAM LIKE THE
GFS EXCEPT MORE AMPLIFIED...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO INITIALIZING THE
CENTER OF THE LOW OFFSHORE SLIGHTLY WEST OF ITS ACTUAL
POSITION....BUT NOT UNREASONABLY SO AS TO RULE IT OUT. GIVEN
PREFERENCES FOR THE SYSTEM DESCRIBED ABOVE...THE MOST PREFERRED
SOLUTION IS BOUNDED BY FASTER ECMWF AND THE SLOWER GFS...WHICH IS
CLOSET TO THE UKMET. FINALLY...THE NEW CANADIAN HAS TRENDED EVEN
FASTER THAN THE UKMET...WHICH PLACES THE UKMET CLOSER TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...

PREFERENCE: UKMET
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3987 Postby iorange55 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:25 pm

Hey our 546 is back on the euro at 120hr, just a tad bit further west.
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Re:

#3988 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:27 pm

funster wrote:Looks like if we get any frozen precip it will be freezing rain, not nice snow. :(


There's no way to know yet. Everything behind the 0c and 540 thickness stuff is snow. The freezing rain/sleet is the transition zone that isn't showing up on the models. This is if the cold air is going faster, which means the precip shown ahead of the models freezing line could be ICE.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3989 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:50 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-292145-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
1243 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

...MUCH COLDER WEATHER COMING NEXT WEEK...

MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS COMING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...
WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR THAT AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST
SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

BEFORE THE COLD WEATHER ARRIVES...A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF A BURNET TO HONDO TO CATARINA
LINE. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY IN
AN AREA EAST OF INTERSTATE 37 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

AFTER THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
MORNING...SOME BRIEF PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BRIEF
WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL END QUICKLY TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH HARD FREEZES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THURSDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY ON
TUESDAY A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM A
DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL COME WITH THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW FREEZING. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 40 AND LOW 40S OVER ADJACENT PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONS TO PROVIDE PROTECTION FOR TENDER PLANTS...PIPES...AND
OUTDOOR PETS FOR NEXT WEEKS COLD TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS ADVISED.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3990 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:55 pm

The Euro and the GFS ensembles suggest another Arctic intrusion will follow our next week event. ;)
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3991 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:55 pm

As srainhoutx likes to say, a look at all of the players.
Last edited by Ntxw on Sat Jan 29, 2011 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3992 Postby iorange55 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:59 pm

Hadn't checked the NWS forecast in awhile. They're predicting freezing rain for Dallas, hm. If we do end up getting ice one thing is for sure it's going to stick around awhile.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3993 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:03 pm

srainhoutx wrote:The Euro and the GFS ensembles suggest another Arctic intrusion will follow our next week event. ;)


North America is under siege. The arctic is locked and loaded. Still waiting on the motherload perhaps? :lol: Big highs off each coasts pinching.

Image
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#3994 Postby Ellsey » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:08 pm

FW has issued a hazardous weather outlook. They're giving us a 60% chance of freezing rain on Tuesday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3995 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:18 pm

HPC Final Update:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
129 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 01 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 05 2011



..WIDESPREAD MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS WEEK...


LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN A STRONG MEAN RIDGE FROM
THE ERN PAC NWD THRU THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN SHAPE
OCCUR AS SHRTWVS ROUND THE RIDGE. ASSOC POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES
ARE FCST TO BE STRONGEST OFF THE PAC NW COAST BY D+8. FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE...
GUIDANCE DISPLAYS AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF FROM ERN CANADA SWWD.
ONE OR MORE INSTANCES OF FLOW SEPARATION WITHIN THIS MEAN TROF
WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO TYPICAL DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES.

WITH THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE PLAINS TUE
ONWARD... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAD BEEN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
AND CONTINUITY CHANGES RECENTLY BUT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS APPEAR TO
BE STARTING TO CONVERGE TOWARD A COMMON SOLN THOUGH SOME
TRACK/TIMING DIFFS REMAIN. GFS RUNS HAVE STABILIZED OVER THE PAST
DAY WHILE THE 12Z AND NEW 00Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE ADJUSTED STEADILY
EWD FROM THE 00Z/28 RUN THAT HAD DEFINED THE WRN SIDE OF THE SOLN
ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE SPREAD
OVER THE ERN STATES AND BY EARLY THU THE CANADIAN BECOMES SLOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE AVERAGE OFF THE NERN COAST. THE 00Z GEFS/12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS PROVIDE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR TRACK/TIMING
AND ALSO FOLLOW PREVIOUS CONTINUITY EXTREMELY WELL... SO THEIR
SOLNS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

WITH UPSTREAM FLOW THE GFS COMPARES LEAST FAVORABLY TO ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING AND MOST OTHER MODELS. THE GFS FEEDS A LOW CONFIDENCE
WRN CANADA SHRTWV INTO THE MEAN TROF OVER THE WEST BY WED AND IS
RELATIVELY FAST/AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE
CNTRL-ERN STATES BY DAYS 5-7 THU-SAT. BY LATE IN THE FCST THE
GEFS MEAN ALSO BECOMES RATHER AMPLIFIED WITH ITS ERN CONUS TROF.
TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE ERN PAC MEAN RIDGE FAVOR HOLDING
DOWNSTREAM NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALIES FARTHER WWD THAN INDICATED BY
THE GEFS MEAN AT THAT TIME. MEANWHILE UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY
HOW FLOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SWRN CONUS/NWRN MEXICO FAVORS
GREATER WEIGHTING OF ENSEMBLE MEANS VERSUS ONE INDIVIDUAL MODEL
RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARES BETTER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS THAN THE GFS
BUT THE ECMWF MAY BECOME TOO DEEP WITH ITS NWRN MEXICO CLOSED LOW
BY DAY 6 FRI IN LIGHT OF SOME FCST HGT ANOMALIES REACHING 3-4
STDEVS BELOW NORMAL.

THE DAYS 3-5 TUE-THU FCST STARTS WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS/12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO REFLECT PREFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS SOLN COMPARES WELL TO
OTHER GUIDANCE IN PRINCIPLE WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE CNTRL-WRN STATES. DAYS 6-7 FRI-SAT USE A 70/30 BLEND OF
THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN/00Z ECMWF AS THE ECMWF MEAN COMPARES BETTER TO
TELECONNECTIONS THAN THE GEFS MEAN. MINORITY WEIGHTING OF THE 00Z
ECMWF PROVIDES A LITTLE ADDED DETAIL WHILE DOWNPLAYING ITS LOWER
CONFIDENCE ATTRIBUTES.

MORNING PRELIM UPDATES BLEND EQUAL AMOUNTS OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS SIMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN THE SAME PATTERNS
OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT BLENDS.

...AFTERNOON UPDATE...
NEW 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER DAY
4 WED THAN PRIOR RUNS AND OTHER MODELS AND ITS ENS MEAN. 12Z
CMC/UKMET AND ENS MEANS REMAIN PREFERRED. NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON
FINALS FROM PRIOR HPC PRELIM PROGS.

EXPECT A BROAD HEAVY SNOW SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST AND
NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. HEAVY
RAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

WITH MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN THRU THE PLAINS WITH TEH
COLDEST AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE ROCKIES EXTREME COLD WILL SET INTO
THE PLAINS WITH NEGATIVE ANOMALIES NEAR OR BELOW 30 DEGREE
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL YIELDING A HUGE AREA OF NEAR AND BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES READINGS DAY AND NIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR WILL SPILL OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND TO THE WEST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
INTO LATE WEEK.

RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3996 Postby Turtle » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:19 pm

Here's TWC map.

Image

I hope it moves about 150-200 miles east. :(
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#3997 Postby gboudx » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:22 pm

It doesn't take much freezing rain to start causing problems on the elevated surfaces, and then the side roads. I know this is 3 days out and it could change, but as of now how much freezing rain would we be looking at in DFW? Freezing rain is a nightmare and I'd rather the low just beat the arctic air instead of the roads becoming an ice rink.

Turtle wrote:I hope it moves about 150-200 miles east. :(


That would put you in an ice storm, according to that map. You want an ice storm?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#3998 Postby Shoshana » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:26 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Starting to get a gut feeling about this one. I don't know if that's good or bad lol.

I call for a PWC briefing to calm down the masses to prevent the ICU Portastorm


Unfortunately, the Portastorm Weather Center director has had his schedule pre-empted by the "real boss" (i.e. his wife) and any briefings will have to occur late this afternoon at the earliest. :wink:

However, IMHO and FWIW (which ain't much!), anyone south of a Lubbock to Waxahachie to Lufkin line should expect nothing more than rain from the Mon-Tues event. You Metroplexers may get in a little "fun" but WacoWx and me and our friends in SE Texas should probably temper expectations. Perhaps mid-week and beyond will offer a little more drama for us.

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I'm thinkin rain at most here too.

But I lived in Dallas for a long time and some of the worst ice storms were preceded by unusually warm weather (ie I had sunburns going into ice storms!).

My mom in Dallas needs a new furnace (hers is working but it's limping). She is calling to see if they can install the new system early Mon morning!
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#3999 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:32 pm

GFS is putting highs in the 30's for Baton Rouge on the 3rd/4th. They show Freezing rain (only .01 so nothing, really) and then SN but it measures .00 so maybe that means a passing flurry? No doubt this will disappear at the next update but the temps have steadily been on the decline. Looks like it will get cold here, after all?

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

Meanwhile Weather.com and Accuweather.com show highs in the mid 50's for the same time frame and lows barely, if at all, touching freezing. I see we still have discrepancy but the GFS isn't the warm biased model it was a few days ago.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4000 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:46 pm

Brownsville not biting on those cold temps...yet...

THE FRONT BRINGS IN THE EFFECTS OF A 1050
HIGH...WHICH BRINGS MUCH COLDER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES CRASH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF OVER 40
DEGREES EXPECTED. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 3 RUNS HAS SHAVED 20
DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS. FOR ONCE...MOS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO LOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING...FORECASTING A LOW BOTH MORNINGS
OF 28 FOR BRO. THE LAST TIME BRO REACHED THAT MARK WAS CHRISTMAS
DAY 2004. AM ALSO WORRIED THAT MODELS ARE GOING TO FLIP ON TEMPS
AGAIN WITH NEXT RUN...SO HAVE GONE WITH A TEMPERED TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FOR THE VALLEY...WITH A FREEZE STILL POSSIBLE FOR BKS/HBV
CORRIDOR AND LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE RIVER. EVEN WITH ADJUSTED
NUMBERS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SNAP OF THE YEAR FOR DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMEPRATURE FOR WEDNESDAY STILL EXPECTED AT
MIDNIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOW 50S.
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