Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Turtle]

It doesn't take much freezing rain to start causing problems on the elevated surfaces, and then the side roads. I know this is 3 days out and it could change, but as of now how much freezing rain would we be looking at in DFW? Freezing rain is a nightmare and I'd rather the low just beat the arctic air instead of the roads becoming an ice rink.

I hope it moves about 150-200 miles east.

That would put you in an ice storm, according to that map. You want an ice storm?

Actually, I wouldn't mind. I enjoy any extreme weather, even tornadoes as long as the damage to the housing structure isn't done.

[HockeyTx82]

I saved this from the 21st of this month. If I am reading it correctly does it show that with the current trends that the GFS had somewhat of a handle on this system that far out? One of the pro mets posted the picture. I figured I would save it for comparison.

[Ntxw]

NWS FW forecast for DFW airport.

Tuesday: Rain likely before noon, then a chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 27. North northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 19.

Lets see how low they will go. 20+ wind gusts would definitely make it feel closer to 0.

[iorange55]

Regardless of how much ice we get Tuesday it's going to be a nasty day.

[Ntxw]

18z NAM continues the trend of a stronger, more dominant southern stream system...plot thickens.

[Brandon8181]

18z NAM continues the trend of a stronger, more dominant southern stream system...plot thickens.

Things are looking much, much better today.

[Ntxw]

Btw Verbatim, 2-5 inches of snow in the metroplex and 6+ in the northern counties on 18z NAM. Save it while it's hot.

Profiles on it is well below 0c top to bottom so snow if this run verifies.

[cheezyWXguy]

i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM
/spam

but seriously, wow what a change from yesterday! I really hope the trend continues

[iorange55]

Not only the snow but this run is really cold. Still showing a 1052 as the high moves down towards Colorado.

[Rgv20]

Brownsville not biting on those cold temps...yet...

THE FRONT BRINGS IN THE EFFECTS OF A 1050
HIGH...WHICH BRINGS MUCH COLDER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES CRASH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF OVER 40
DEGREES EXPECTED. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 3 RUNS HAS SHAVED 20
DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS. FOR ONCE...MOS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO LOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING...FORECASTING A LOW BOTH MORNINGS
OF 28 FOR BRO. THE LAST TIME BRO REACHED THAT MARK WAS CHRISTMAS
DAY 2004. AM ALSO WORRIED THAT MODELS ARE GOING TO FLIP ON TEMPS
AGAIN WITH NEXT RUN...SO HAVE GONE WITH A TEMPERED TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FOR THE VALLEY...WITH A FREEZE STILL POSSIBLE FOR BKS/HBV
CORRIDOR AND LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE RIVER. EVEN WITH ADJUSTED
NUMBERS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SNAP OF THE YEAR FOR DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMEPRATURE FOR WEDNESDAY STILL EXPECTED AT
MIDNIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOW 50S.

Have you guys ever heard of MOS Guidance running to low?? I always read the during an Arctic airmass it is always to warm.

[Ntxw]

Have you guys ever heard of MOS Guidance running to low?? I always read the during an Arctic airmass it is always to warm.

MOS guidance has climo involved, how can it be too low?!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Corpus Christi sounds like they are on board as far as a significant and prolonged freeze/cold event.

LONG-TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO ARIZONA. IT WILL BE WARM
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND IT WILL BE BREEZY
ALONG THE COASTAL BEND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO WEST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE REGION
MOVES INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 120 KT JET STREAK. THE
REGION APPEARS THAT IT WOULD BE CAPPED...BUT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND AROUND -20C AT 500MB...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A VERY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD FOR TUESDAY
A FEW DEGREES. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF TEMPERATURES STAY UP WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE
CRASHING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. 850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -2C TO -11C
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN AT NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER. THE CANADIAN IS SHOWING WINDS ALOFT QUICKLY SHIFTING BACK TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...KEEPING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO THE MID 30S. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND
THEREFORE HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONSISTENCY...KEPT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOW 30S...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
SIGNIFICANT FREEZE ON ONE OR MULTIPLE NIGHTS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE 40S
ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH A
1040MB HIGH SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE.

[SouthernMet]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My confidence level at the moment on a potential event in DFW metroplex Tuesday...

Elevated Risk-Freezing rain (50%) Slight chance-Sleet (20%) Possible-Snow (Less than 10%)

Although the duration of the heavier precip should fall as a cold rain in DFW, as the temps dip below freezing and precip shifts eastward freezing rain is possible with sleet mixing in as well. It's all gonna depend on exact timing of the front as models have had trouble depticing in the past.

Still early to pin point exact details on impacts/details and accumulations atm so stay tuned..

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Brownsville not biting on those cold temps...yet...

THE FRONT BRINGS IN THE EFFECTS OF A 1050
HIGH...WHICH BRINGS MUCH COLDER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES CRASH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF OVER 40
DEGREES EXPECTED. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 3 RUNS HAS SHAVED 20
DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS. FOR ONCE...MOS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO LOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING...FORECASTING A LOW BOTH MORNINGS
OF 28 FOR BRO. THE LAST TIME BRO REACHED THAT MARK WAS CHRISTMAS
DAY 2004. AM ALSO WORRIED THAT MODELS ARE GOING TO FLIP ON TEMPS
AGAIN WITH NEXT RUN...SO HAVE GONE WITH A TEMPERED TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FOR THE VALLEY...WITH A FREEZE STILL POSSIBLE FOR BKS/HBV
CORRIDOR AND LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE RIVER. EVEN WITH ADJUSTED
NUMBERS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST SNAP OF THE YEAR FOR DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMEPRATURE FOR WEDNESDAY STILL EXPECTED AT
MIDNIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOW 50S.

One of the "Old Timers" needs to get off the golf course down there and go write up a discusion for the young ones!

[jasons2k]

Wow - that's amazing how ridiculously cold that run of the Euro is. It's time for me to make some preps for a very hard freeze.

[iorange55]

interesting read DFW NWS

THE CONFIDENCE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FORECAST IS NOW
INCREASING AS THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH AND RAPIDLY MOVE
THROUGH TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG FORCING/LIFT COMBINED WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS WITH A 1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA AND HEADING SOUTH.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POSITION AND STRENGTH
OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY...AND THE FASTER GFS/NAM ARE
PREFERRED. AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALLS INTO SUBFREEZING
AIR...A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD OCCUR. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO ALIGNMENT WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WE WILL
KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WAXAHACHIE TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. HOWEVER THIS LINE MAY BE ADJUSTED FARTHER SOUTH IF
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON AN EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHAT
IS BECOMING MORE CERTAIN IS THAT SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
ICE AND SLEET AFFECTING TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES
EARLY TUESDAY. THIS REGION SHOULD HAVE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID-
UPPER 20S BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. TOO SOON TO NAIL DOWN EXACT AMOUNTS
BUT WE SHOULD GET A BETTER IDEA BY TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
RAPIDLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG DOWNGLIDE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...BUT
SOME LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR NORTH OF I-20 INTO EVENING.

ASIDE FROM THE WINTER PRECIP...THE BIG STORY FOR EVERYONE IS GOING
TO BE THE VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS. GFS IS FINALLY ON
BOARD WITH A COLD SOLUTION SIMILAR TO ECMWF/CANADIAN AND IT GIVES
US THE CONFIDENCE TO FURTHER LOWER OUR TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE
WEEK. THE UNUSUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE TO DRIVE ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR REGION. 850MB
TEMP ANOMALIES APPROACH 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OVER
WEST TEXAS...AND THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE SOME OF THE COLDEST
AIR OUR REGION HAS SEEN IN AT LEAST A COUPLE YEARS. ADDING INSULT
ARE WINDS THAT WILL BE BLOWING AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTY TUESDAY WITH
WIND CHILLS BELOW 0 NORTH OF I-20 AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE TEENS
TUESDAY NIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING TO OUR NW AND DO NOT BELIEVE TEMPS
WILL MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR AREA FOR HIGHS. CONTINUED
COLD ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER
US ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SOME BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. BELIEVE
THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK TO WARM US UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO
AGREEMENT IN FORECAST UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS NEXT WEEKEND...AND THUS
IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP
POPS AT 10 PERCENT AND SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS.

[Turtle]

NWS SHV:

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING TUESDAY HAS REALLY PICKED UP ITS PACE
WITH THIS LAST MODEL RUN...WITH THE FRONT PROGRESSING RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SITES GENERALLY NORTH OF
I30 WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR MORNING LOWS AS DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.

WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO...IN OUR DISCUSSION YESTERDAY WE TALKED ABOUT A
SCENARIO OF GFS AND ECMWF COMING TOGETHER. WELL GFS HAS BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER IN THE LATEST RUN...NEARLY MATCHING ECMWF IN
THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AND WHILE ECMWF IS STILL
MORE ON THE DRY SIDE...IT HAS MOISTENED UP SOME IN THE LATEST RUN.
WITH THIS TREND WE COULD SEE A RAIN SNOW MIX...GENERALLY NORTH OF
I30...AS EARLY AS THE EARLY EVENING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CHANGING
OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW MAY
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. MY CONFIDENCE IS
STILL SHAKY...BUT I FEEL I HAD TO MENTION...THAT IS WHY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO VERY LOW CHANCE IS POP FOR WINTER PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT.

Now our highs are in the 30s and lows in the teens. Just yesterday my highs were in the 50s!

[Brandon8181]

Updated forecast from National Weather Service for my area is 80% wintery mix.....

[PTrackerLA]

Can someone post the link to the Euro 850mb temperature map, like the ones posted a few days ago? Temperatures have been trending down with the GFS over the past day, now indicating multiple hard freezes with mid-low 20's overnight temps for my area. Starting to wonder how low these will go!

[Portastorm]

PTracker ... here are the 12z Euro maps for 850mb level at 96 hours and 120 hours: