Texas Winter 2010-2011

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4021 Postby wall_cloud » Sat Jan 29, 2011 5:38 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM
/spam

but seriously, wow what a change from yesterday! I really hope the trend continues


unfortunately (for you), the NAM has been nothing better than trash this winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4022 Postby Brandon8181 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 5:38 pm

wall_cloud wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM
/spam

but seriously, wow what a change from yesterday! I really hope the trend continues


unfortunately (for you), the NAM has been nothing better than trash this winter.


Guess that answers my question..

Wall cloud, NWS fortworth says they prefer the NAM/GFS solution.. why do you think that is?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4023 Postby Brandon8181 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 5:51 pm

From National Weather Service in San Angelo..

...CHANCE OF ICE AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SNOW THAT MAY FALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ENOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS TO CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW ZERO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PROLONGED COLD WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR LIVESTOCK AND OUTDOOR PETS.
EXPOSED PIPES MAY FREEZE AND BURST IF THEY ARE NOT PROPERLY INSULATED.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL
BE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL
APPROACH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT BRING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW AS
THE COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL END DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND
THE FRONT...ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL
TV AND RADIO...AND OUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE FOR
UPDATES.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4024 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sat Jan 29, 2011 5:56 pm

wall_cloud wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM
/spam

but seriously, wow what a change from yesterday! I really hope the trend continues


unfortunately (for you), the NAM has been nothing better than trash this winter.


GFS has been right there with it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4025 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jan 29, 2011 5:56 pm

At least in the first 96 hours, the 18z GFS doesn't seem too different from the 12z GFS unless I'm missing something.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4026 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 29, 2011 5:58 pm

wall_cloud wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM
/spam

but seriously, wow what a change from yesterday! I really hope the trend continues


unfortunately (for you), the NAM has been nothing better than trash this winter.


The NAM nailed the two biggest winter storms around here last year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4027 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jan 29, 2011 5:58 pm

Doesn't look like it is over after this system...GFS is cranking another 1060mb High coming out of Canada :eek:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4028 Postby Brandon8181 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 5:59 pm

orangeblood wrote:
wall_cloud wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM
/spam

but seriously, wow what a change from yesterday! I really hope the trend continues


unfortunately (for you), the NAM has been nothing better than trash this winter.


The NAM nailed the two biggest winter storms around here last year.


I think we just need to stay on the NAM wagon, and continue our rehab, and get out of the hospital and play in the snow on Tuesday...
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#4029 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:16 pm

Lets not stay on any wagon. The point taken from today is not snow or no snow. It is the fact that the models have slowly edged back in our direction as the event is getting closer (the pacific storm is probably stronger than progged into the models). We're getting into that frame that lost events come back. Tomorrow is the big day in model world and as mentioned earlier the trends the next 24 hours is critical.
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Re:

#4030 Postby Brandon8181 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:Lets not stay on any wagon. The point taken from today is not snow or no snow. It is the fact that the models have slowly edged back in our direction as the event is getting closer. We're getting into that frame that lost events come back. Tomorrow is the big day in model world and as mentioned earlier the trends the next 24 hours is critical.


Well, I will take that ...if nothing else, today was a much better day for sure. As you mentioned it will be interesting to see what the models suggest over the next 24 hours - but still, I'm on the NAM wagon for now :)
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Re:

#4031 Postby iorange55 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:22 pm

Ntxw wrote:Lets not stay on any wagon. The point taken from today is not snow or no snow. It is the fact that the models have slowly edged back in our direction as the event is getting closer (the pacific storm is probably stronger than progged into the models). We're getting into that frame that lost events come back. Tomorrow is the big day in model world and as mentioned earlier the trends the next 24 hours is critical.



0z runs will be really interesting tonight. Hope the trend stays our friend which I think it will. Looks like as the event is getting closer they're coming back to our favor. Usually when it's this close they keep going in that one direction.

Hopefully...
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Re: Re:

#4032 Postby Brandon8181 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:28 pm

iorange55 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Lets not stay on any wagon. The point taken from today is not snow or no snow. It is the fact that the models have slowly edged back in our direction as the event is getting closer (the pacific storm is probably stronger than progged into the models). We're getting into that frame that lost events come back. Tomorrow is the big day in model world and as mentioned earlier the trends the next 24 hours is critical.



0z runs will be really interesting tonight. Hope the trend stays our friend which I think it will. Looks like as the event is getting closer they're coming back to our favor. Usually when it's this close they keep going in that one direction.

Hopefully...


Has anyone here ever seen something SIGNIFICANT change within a 3 day time period ...

For example today, some models suggest sleet and snow ...with 20/30 temperatures...

Then when the event came the artic air didn't make it south...and the mositure didn't come..and it was warm in the 60/70 range?

Anyone ever seen anyhthing like that? Just curious..
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Re: Re:

#4033 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:34 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:Has anyone here ever seen something SIGNIFICANT change within a 3 day time period ...

For example today, some models suggest sleet and snow ...with 20/30 temperatures...

Then when the event came the artic air didn't make it south...and the mositure didn't come..and it was warm in the 60/70 range?

Anyone ever seen anyhthing like that? Just curious..


Nothing that significant I don't think. Earlier this month you had the NAM showing 15+ inches in DFW and 0 on the GFS lol. Night before the event. Worst I can recall at close range.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4034 Postby wall_cloud » Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:56 pm

orangeblood wrote:
wall_cloud wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM i love the NAM
/spam

but seriously, wow what a change from yesterday! I really hope the trend continues


unfortunately (for you), the NAM has been nothing better than trash this winter.


The NAM nailed the two biggest winter storms around here last year.


That's why I said this winter. 8-)

I think they are buying the NAM because it has support from the other model solutions. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
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#4035 Postby DentonGal » Sat Jan 29, 2011 7:22 pm

Steve McCauley on WFAA Dallas just explained the McFarland Signature. Very interesting indeed!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4036 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 29, 2011 7:26 pm

unfortunately (for you), the NAM has been nothing better than trash this winter.[/quote]

The NAM nailed the two biggest winter storms around here last year.[/quote]

That's why I said this winter. 8-)

I think they are buying the NAM because it has support from the other model solutions. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.[/quote]

The 09' Christmas Eve storm was a very similar pattern and the NAM did very well with that storm. That's the reason I'm giving more credence to that model than most others. Unless, they've changed the physics of that model since then??
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4037 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 29, 2011 7:31 pm

orangeblood wrote:The 09' Christmas Eve storm was a very similar pattern and the NAM did very well with that storm. That's the reason I'm giving more credence to that model than most others. Unless, they've changed the physics of that model since then??


Do you think March 6/7th 2008 snowstorm is a good analog? This is a much colder situation but the idea seems similar to me. Energy digging from behind as a surface storm is riding the baroclinic (weaker then though) up through roughly the same boundary area.
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#4038 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Jan 29, 2011 7:56 pm

It's way too quiet in here. Are the new model runs due shortly?
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#4039 Postby Turtle » Sat Jan 29, 2011 8:00 pm

I only know about GFS, but that's not for another 3-4 hours. It'll be the 00z gfs runs! :wink:
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#4040 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Jan 29, 2011 8:02 pm

Yeah, I guess it is too soon for the models. An exciting cold week is in store for winter lovers. Ice or snow, I think it is coming.
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