Texas Winter 2010-2011

[downsouthman1]

The 0Z NAM should be updating before too long.

[gpsnowman]

Great, NAM it is. I am wondering if at a certain time the models remain consistent with what might happen. Meaning when will the flip flopping end and some consistency starts to show. Although I would not mind the models flipping to a major snow storm.

[orangeblood]

The 09' Christmas Eve storm was a very similar pattern and the NAM did very well with that storm. That's the reason I'm giving more credence to that model than most others. Unless, they've changed the physics of that model since then??

Do you think March 6/7th 2008 snowstorm is a good analog? This is a much colder situation but the idea seems similar to me. Energy digging from behind as a surface storm is riding the baroclinic (weaker then though) up through roughly the same boundary area.

Yeah somewhat, but the trajectory/position of the trough was a little different. That trough wasn't as negatively titled as the one currently being forecasted and didn't have energy digging in to pinwheel it to the northeast. The negative tilt to this trough is what makes this more interesting because it could bring more precip on the backside of this storm system, thus more widespread coverage of wintry precip.

[gboudx]

Great, NAM it is. I am wondering if at a certain time the models remain consistent with what might happen. Meaning when will the flip flopping end and some consistency starts to show. Although I would not mind the models flipping to a major snow storm.

Let's hope that if there's a flip its to much more snow than ice. Ice storms are too dangerous and I can't understand wanting to experience one. Power outages that last for days and cause severe hardship for people like the elderly, infants and homebound. People injured or dieing in auto crashes from slipping on the icy roads is not something I hope for. I'd rather it just be cold.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

***Significant arctic air intrusion next week***

Storm system approaching SW TX this evening with rapid moisture advection across the entire TX coast. Warm air advection pattern has resulted in dewpoints increasing into the upper 50's and lower 60's across the region. Strong dynamics will be crossing the Rio Grande in the next few hours and once this energy overspreads the increasing moisture thunderstorms will erupt. Expect numerous thunderstorms to develop between 900-midnight from Laredo to W of San Antonio and then spread ENE across all of SC/coastal bend after midnight and into SE TX after 300am. While SPC has the entire region outlook, instability is lacking and developing 850mb capping will keep storms from rooting in the surface layer. Very cold mid level temperatures however will cross the region with the upper trough resulting in decent instability above the capping inversion. Expect strong stroms and possibly a few going severe with the main threat being hail. Active weather should be ongoing across SE TX from 300am-1000am.

Some potential for cold mid level temperatures to result in additional low level air mass destablization Sunday afternoon if sun can break through. While low levels will be drying, there appears to be enough moisture to potentially generate an additional round of storms mainly along and E of I-45 as suggested by the 12Z WRF. Rainfall totals of .5-1.5 inches are likely with isolated amounts of 2-3 inches especially along and SE of US 59 where the best moisture will be found.

Next week:
Models have finally come into better agreement on the cold air outbreak next week. GFS has trended significantly colder matching closer to the very cold ECMWF and CMC. Massive 1050mb arctic high will move from NW Canada to just north of the Montana border and then plunge down the plains toward TX. This is looking like a strong direct shot of very cold air straight into TX. Strong arctic boundary will roar down the plains and cross off the TX coast by noon Tuesday. 120kt jet streak and strong frontal lift will support a round of thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday and some could be severe. Temperatures will fall at least 30 degrees with the frontal passage as very strong cold air advection with the arctic high building over the region. Will see highs all areas in the 60's prior to the front with temperatures rapidly falling into the 30's behind the boundary with NW winds of 20-30mph producing wind chills at or below freezing by Tuesday evening. Freezing line will march southward rapidly during the day on Tuesday reaching our northern counties by mid afternoon and likely I-10 by mid evening.

Still some debate on if clouds will linger behind the front as the CMC shows some overrunning, while the ECMWF and GFS show a drier mid level air mas. Fingers crossed that the CMC is correct and we have a saving cloud blanket, if not very cold overnight lows into the teens are likely for areas along and N of US 59 potentially for at least 2 nights with highs Wed-Thu only in the mid to upper 30's. Raw GFS guidance is showing 19 for IAH on Friday morning which would be 1 degree colder than the outbreak last January. Still plenty of time to fine tune the details of this incoming air mass and just how cold it may get, but there is growing confidence that hard freezes possibly killing freezes will be possible mid to late next week. With the center of the arctic high remaining NW of the region Tue-Thu, NW/N winds of 10-20mph will continue and this will drive wind chills into the teens and 20's for parts of the region and possibly sub-zero as far south as I-20.

Residents should take the warm weather of the next 2 days to prepare vegetation and livestock for the impending cold blast. Additionally pipes and sprinkler systems should be protected given the potential for an extended period of sub-freezing temperatures. Advection freezes as the one likely incoming Tuesday night and Wednesday night are particulary damaging to vegetation as the "greenhouse" effect is harder to produce on windy nights.

[amawea]

The winter Recon data will be fed to the models in the a.m. that should give a more accurate picture of what is going to happen with this winter storm. Someone is going to get a doozie! Who, is still the big question. Some folks that get the brunt of this will most likely wish they hadn't. I was reading a met discussion that said a move of the low of 50 miles could be a difference of rain, freezing rain, or snow. Now that was an Arkansas forecaster so even up here they don't know yet. I hope everyone gets what they wish for, but in some cases it could be watch what you wish for.

[Ntxw]

Let's hope that if there's a flip its to much more snow than ice. Ice storms are too dangerous and I can't understand wanting to experience one. Power outages that last for days and cause severe hardship for people like the elderly, infants and homebound. People injured or dieing in auto crashes from slipping on the icy roads is not something I hope for. I'd rather it just be cold.

Snow would be great vs ice. But keep in mind, IF it does snow, with the gradient and power of this system, it won't be the pleasant nice pretty snow. Wind will accompany it with force behind the front. I won't be surprised if blizzard warnings are issued just to our north. OKC has mentioned such a scenario.

[downsouthman1]

Great, NAM it is. I am wondering if at a certain time the models remain consistent with what might happen. Meaning when will the flip flopping end and some consistency starts to show. Although I would not mind the models flipping to a major snow storm.

Because this situation is extremely dynamic & has so many variables, I don't think the models will ever become completely consistent. I expect this event to remain pretty mysterious all the way up until the last drop/flake. The cold air has to make its way south & then have time to deepen, in order to have wintry precip. Also, it's possible that the cold air will scour the atmosphere of moisture. There's actually too many variables to mention. The the low currently pinwheeling off the NW Cali coast has to dive it's way south & provide lift over the cold airmass. Honestly, I think this smells more like freezing rain than snow. I'm also still wondering how much evaporational cooling will effect the virgin arctic airmass when the low gets here.

[gboudx]

Let's hope that if there's a flip its to much more snow than ice. Ice storms are too dangerous and I can't understand wanting to experience one. Power outages that last for days and cause severe hardship for people like the elderly, infants and homebound. People injured or dieing in auto crashes from slipping on the icy roads is not something I hope for. I'd rather it just be cold.

Snow would be great vs ice. But keep in mind, IF it does snow, with the gradient and power of this system, it won't be the pleasant nice pretty snow. Wind will accompany it with force behind the front. I won't be surprised if blizzard warnings are issued just to our north. OKC has mentioned such a scenario.

Yeah we're gonna deal with the wind no matter what is falling. With the warm weather we've had the past couple days, maybe that will help it take longer for the non-elevated surfaces to reach freezing. I've seen pics from OK from a few years ago when they had over an inch of ice, and know a few people who were affected by it. Most of them didn't have power for over a week. Forget that.

[iorange55]

Great, NAM it is. I am wondering if at a certain time the models remain consistent with what might happen. Meaning when will the flip flopping end and some consistency starts to show. Although I would not mind the models flipping to a major snow storm.

Let's hope that if there's a flip its to much more snow than ice. Ice storms are too dangerous and I can't understand wanting to experience one. Power outages that last for days and cause severe hardship for people like the elderly, infants and homebound. People injured or dieing in auto crashes from slipping on the icy roads is not something I hope for. I'd rather it just be cold.

It's just like with hurricanes. You don't want to see them hit but if they're going to there are people who love the thrill and love tracking them. I'd much rather have a snow storm BY FAR. Still I can understand the thrill someone would get out of an ice storm.

You can't stop the weather, so in the end I guess it doesn't matter who wants it and who doesn't.

[kmc8264]

Any thoughts on how this storm will effect southwest oklahoma? Are we looking at ice, snow or will it miss us. We would like to have moisture in any shape or form.

[amawea]

The ice storm that started on 01/27/09 left all of northeast Arkansas without power. The trees are just starting to be able to produce acorns etc. We were witout power for 21 days at my house. I work for a phone company and it was 24/7 days working for two months. We still have stuff that was temporaried. I could not get in or out of my drive for the first week and had to walk from the highway at dark with limbs and trees snapping it was scary as all get out. The walk was a half mile every morning and every evening. Anyone that hasn't been through a major ice storm and wants one would never want one again. A few of my friends came over while I was at work and cut me out. That storm was devastating to trees, homes and power.

[txagwxman]

After looking at these models...

BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

18z NAM is so much faster and has DFW to 25F by noon Tuesday, plenty cold for ice/sleet as the low lifts out. OKC/TUL are in for a mess. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tomball (NW Houston) to 32F by Tuesday evening (7pm).

Protect your pipes in Dallas!!!!!!!!!! Won't get above freezing there until Friday/Saturday...

[Brandon8181]

After looking at these models...

BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

*like*

NAM is running.....can't wait to see ....

[cwp419]

I'm thinking temperatures outside of the beltway (north and west) will possibly not get above freezing Wednesday and/or Thursday with lows in the mid-teens. Conroe could be approaching single digits.

[txagwxman]

I'm thinking temperatures outside of the beltway (north and west) will possibly not get above freezing Wednesday and/or Thursday with lows in the mid-teens. Conroe could be approaching single digits.

Conroe won't get to single digits...i could see teens there.

[gpsnowman]

After looking at these models...

BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

18z NAM is so much faster and has DFW to 25F by noon Tuesday, plenty cold for ice/sleet as the low lifts out. OKC/TUL are in for a mess. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tomball (NW Houston) to 32F by Tuesday evening (7pm).

Protect your pipes in Dallas!!!!!!!!!! Won't get above freezing there until Friday/Saturday...

Friday or Saturday?! The locals are showing above freezing as early as Thursday. A bit conservative I guess. The main focus is Tuesday because of the preicp, but the big game is not to far away. These models have been getting a bit colder with each run.

[cwp419]

I'm thinking temperatures outside of the beltway (north and west) will possibly not get above freezing Wednesday and/or Thursday with lows in the mid-teens. Conroe could be approaching single digits.

Conroe won't get to single digits...i could see teens there.

12z GFS MOS guidance has KIAH at 22 and 19 Thursday and Friday morning, respectively, and MOS weighs in climatology (moreso in the long-range)when rendering an output. Friday morning, especially, will feature more radiational cooling than the first part of the Arctic outbreak, and given that CXO tends to be several degrees coder than KIAH on radiational cooling nights, on average, if a model that is warm-biased is forecasting 19 for KIAH, then I could conceivably see CXO approach single digits.

Remember, last year, the low at Conroe during the January Arctic event was 15 with 850mb temps ~-6c. The GFS is currently forecasting 850mb temps to fall to around ~-11c with this event.

[wall_cloud]

The ice storm that started on 01/27/09 left all of northeast Arkansas without power. The trees are just starting to be able to produce acorns etc. We were witout power for 21 days at my house. I work for a phone company and it was 24/7 days working for two months. We still have stuff that was temporaried. I could not get in or out of my drive for the first week and had to walk from the highway at dark with limbs and trees snapping it was scary as all get out. The walk was a half mile every morning and every evening. Anyone that hasn't been through a major ice storm and wants one would never want one again. A few of my friends came over while I was at work and cut me out. That storm was devastating to trees, homes and power.

amen. Ice storms are terrible all around. If you have ever experienced 2" of ice and been without power/heat for a weak, you'd agree. If you haven't, you just won't understand. Nevermind that bringing commerce to a standstill is awful on the already volatile economy.

[Brandon8181]

The ice storm that started on 01/27/09 left all of northeast Arkansas without power. The trees are just starting to be able to produce acorns etc. We were witout power for 21 days at my house. I work for a phone company and it was 24/7 days working for two months. We still have stuff that was temporaried. I could not get in or out of my drive for the first week and had to walk from the highway at dark with limbs and trees snapping it was scary as all get out. The walk was a half mile every morning and every evening. Anyone that hasn't been through a major ice storm and wants one would never want one again. A few of my friends came over while I was at work and cut me out. That storm was devastating to trees, homes and power.

amen. Ice storms are terrible all around. If you have ever experienced 2" of ice and been without power/heat for a weak, you'd agree. If you haven't, you just won't understand. Nevermind that bringing commerce to a standstill is awful on the already volatile economy.

In addition to working for Carpet One Floor and Home full time - my wife and I operate a home based business. Without power, etc...we would be at a stand still.