Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Metalicwx220]

The ice storm that started on 01/27/09 left all of northeast Arkansas without power. The trees are just starting to be able to produce acorns etc. We were witout power for 21 days at my house. I work for a phone company and it was 24/7 days working for two months. We still have stuff that was temporaried. I could not get in or out of my drive for the first week and had to walk from the highway at dark with limbs and trees snapping it was scary as all get out. The walk was a half mile every morning and every evening. Anyone that hasn't been through a major ice storm and wants one would never want one again. A few of my friends came over while I was at work and cut me out. That storm was devastating to trees, homes and power.

amen. Ice storms are terrible all around. If you have ever experienced 2" of ice and been without power/heat for a weak, you'd agree. If you haven't, you just won't understand. Nevermind that bringing commerce to a standstill is awful on the already volatile economy.

Ive Been through a several .50inch icestorms in Illinois and my power has never cut out. Addictionally I never have seen ice durinng day time. I seen it at night but iit melts so quick never gotten a glance at the daylight with ice.

[iorange55]

Looks the nam 00z is almost identical to the 18z.

[Ntxw]

It buries eastern Oklahoma as the system is going negative tilt. With snowcover I-20 north.

[iorange55]

It buries eastern Oklahoma as the system is going negative tilt. With snowcover I-20 north.

Lol this sure is going to be interesting. If the trends keep up it looks like anywhere from North Central Texas to Northern Oklahoma should expect winter precip, and Southeast Oklahoma should buy lots of bread.

[TwisterFanatic]

It buries eastern Oklahoma as the system is going negative tilt. With snowcover I-20 north.

Might have to go out and buy me a shovel.

[wall_cloud]

The ice storm that started on 01/27/09 left all of northeast Arkansas without power. The trees are just starting to be able to produce acorns etc. We were witout power for 21 days at my house. I work for a phone company and it was 24/7 days working for two months. We still have stuff that was temporaried. I could not get in or out of my drive for the first week and had to walk from the highway at dark with limbs and trees snapping it was scary as all get out. The walk was a half mile every morning and every evening. Anyone that hasn't been through a major ice storm and wants one would never want one again. A few of my friends came over while I was at work and cut me out. That storm was devastating to trees, homes and power.

amen. Ice storms are terrible all around. If you have ever experienced 2" of ice and been without power/heat for a weak, you'd agree. If you haven't, you just won't understand. Nevermind that bringing commerce to a standstill is awful on the already volatile economy.

Ive Been through a several .50inch icestorms in Illinois and my power has never cut out. Addictionally I never have seen ice durinng day time. I seen it at night but iit melts so quick never gotten a glance at the daylight with ice.

1/2" really cause problems as well but that is by no means devestating. There is a reason that warnings are issued for 1/4" or more.

[Ntxw]

It buries eastern Oklahoma as the system is going negative tilt. With snowcover I-20 north.

Might have to go out and buy me a shovel.

I think you should . Remember, NAM is a warm biased mesoscale model (though this year I'd say GFS is). Timing and set up of precip bands will determine a lot. Storm is yet to crash inland so plenty of wiggle room. The baroclinic zone is absurdly crazy. If you sit between the 0c and -10 line you'll probably get blasted.

[Brandon8181]

It buries eastern Oklahoma as the system is going negative tilt. With snowcover I-20 north.

Might have to go out and buy me a shovel.

I think you should . Remember, NAM is a warm biased mesoscale model (though this year I'd say GFS is). Timing and set up of precip bands will determine a lot. Storm is yet to crash inland so plenty of wiggle room.

How about a wiggle alittle more to the south?

I would love to have enough snow to build a nice snowman with my little family.

[txagwxman]

I'm thinking temperatures outside of the beltway (north and west) will possibly not get above freezing Wednesday and/or Thursday with lows in the mid-teens. Conroe could be approaching single digits.

Conroe won't get to single digits...i could see teens there.

12z GFS MOS guidance has KIAH at 22 and 19 Thursday and Friday morning, respectively, and MOS weighs in climatology (moreso in the long-range)when rendering an output. Friday morning, especially, will feature more radiational cooling than the first part of the Arctic outbreak, and given that CXO tends to be several degrees coder than KIAH on radiational cooling nights, on average, if a model that is warm-biased is forecasting 19 for KIAH, then I could conceivably see CXO approach single digits.

Remember, last year, the low at Conroe during the January Arctic event was 15 with 850mb temps ~-6c. The GFS is currently forecasting 850mb temps to fall to around ~-11c with this event.

GFS MOS stinks...I doubt Conroe can reach the single digits and I know how cold it gets at night (:. We will also have a trough to our SW which should produce cloud cover on Thursday morning and keep Conroe out of the single digits. IAH didn't even reach 19F last year when I got to 15.5F (Spring, TX).

[Brandon8181]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Just for the record An Ice Storm Warning is issued by the National Weather Service of the United States when freezing rain produces a significant and possibly damaging accumulation of ice. The criteria for this warning vary from state to state, but typically an ice storm warning will be issued any time more than 1/4 inch (6 mm) of ice is expected to accumulate in an area (in some areas, the criterion is 1/2 inch (13 mm).

I do feel like there is a moderate risk for a 1/4 inch ice situation as things stand right now.

[Longhornmaniac8]

So is there any hope for those of us in Central Texas?

It seems the models have been trending a bit more south over the last 24 hours, but only to North Central Texas at best.

What would be some things to be looking out for on future model runs that might give us some hope?

[txagwxman]

So is there any hope for those of us in Central Texas?

It seems the models have been trending a bit more south over the last 24 hours, but only to North Central Texas at best.

What would be some things to be looking out for on future model runs that might give us some hope?

We need to watch what happens to the trough to our west later this week...don't expect too much precip into central TX on Tuesday...Waco/FTW/DFW may see some sleet/ice then light snow DFW (flurries).

Lot of orange on this board, so had to give my Aggies some support.

[Brandon8181]

It looks like the most recent NAM run looks a bit colder than previous run ? Similar, but colder?

Particularly on Tue 1st 12z 15z and 18z (the time frame of concern)

Did anyone else happen to notice this or is it just me?

[gpsnowman]

I have a question about the low approaching the west coast. What factors can make it slow down a bit and what chances are for it to gather moisture on its way to Texas? Inquiring minds like mine want to know. I am trying to learn as much as I can.

[Ntxw]

I have a question about the low approaching the west coast. What factors can make it slow down a bit and what chances are for it to gather moisture on its way to Texas? Inquiring minds like mine want to know. I am trying to learn as much as I can.

Complicated situation. Vortmax low/trough itself out west won't have much moisture, kicking mechanism really (I think?). It's the surface low in south/southeast Texas that draws in the moisture. Where the two meet up = winter. A stronger surface low will draw up more moisture and a stronger ULL will cool the column more efficiently. Txagwxman could probably explain it better

[gpsnowman]

I have a question about the low approaching the west coast. What factors can make it slow down a bit and what chances are for it to gather moisture on its way to Texas? Inquiring minds like mine want to know. I am trying to learn as much as I can.

Complicated situation. Vortmax low/trough itself out west won't have much moisture, kicking mechanism really (I think?). It's the surface low in south/southeast Texas that draws in the moisture. Where the two meet up = winter. A stronger surface low will draw up more moisture and a stronger ULL will cool the column more efficiently. Txagwxman could probably explain it better

Thanks. That helps out. Learning all this is fun. Watching models(as best I can) and tracking storms(again as best I can) really slows down time but has accelerated ageing. Fun and frustrating at the same time.

[vbhoutex]

I have a question about the low approaching the west coast. What factors can make it slow down a bit and what chances are for it to gather moisture on its way to Texas? Inquiring minds like mine want to know. I am trying to learn as much as I can.

Complicated situation. Vortmax low/trough itself out west won't have much moisture, kicking mechanism really (I think?). It's the surface low in south/southeast Texas that draws in the moisture. Where the two meet up = winter. A stronger surface low will draw up more moisture and a stronger ULL will cool the column more efficiently. Txagwxman could probably explain it better

Thanks. That helps out. Learning all this is fun. Watching models(as best I can) and tracking storms(again as best I can) really slows down time but has accelerated ageing. Fun and frustrating at the same time.

Welcome to the world of true weather nerdism!!

[gpsnowman]

Been this way since I was ten, vbhoutx.

[txagwxman]

Anyone else see the 12z UKMET with low forming in the Gulf later this week with SW flow?

[vbhoutex]

Been this way since I was ten, vbhoutx.

I guess we started about the same age then. My guess is I have been at it a lot longer than you have and I still am fascinated by it and learn more almost every day.
What I am seeing in the models right now is some of the coldest I have seen in a long time!! So much for our La Nina winter! With the way the winters have been the last three years here in SE TX I am really thinking we are entering a cooling phase with Winters similar to what we saw during the 70's.