Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

BTW, here's a look at the 10am temps ... interesting to see those -30s and -40s showing up in northwestern Canada. Guess where that air is going?!



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[orangeblood]

Better hope that front does reinforce faster in DFW by Monday midnight. Latest GFS faster now.

Yep, somewhat concerned about that faster scenario. But then the NAM comes in slower this morning but has a known bias for being slower/deeper. I'm tapping this brakes somewhat on a significant event around DFW right now until I see a trend towards a slower solution other than the NAM.

[PineyWoods]

I've noticed that a WSW has gone up for central and northern New Mexico for Monday through Wednesday. Is this system separate from the system they are forecasting for us in Texas Monday through Tuesday? If so, is this system going to track across NOrth Texas after the cold air is in place or will it "dry out" due to the dry air from the front?
thx

[Ntxw]

On the bright side! GFS is now giving S/SE/E Texas a little bit of moisture return next week! Not a lot but a good start from that model.

[srainhoutx]

And yet another Arctic Intrusion on the way next Sunday/Monday...

[wxman22]

Gfs is very similar to the Euro with a light band of snow moving through with the cold core low.

[utweather]

Better hope that front does reinforce faster in DFW by Monday midnight. Latest GFS faster now.

Yep, somewhat concerned about that faster scenario. But then the NAM comes in slower this morning but has a known bias for being slower/deeper. I'm tapping this brakes somewhat on a significant event around DFW right now until I see a trend towards a slower solution other than the NAM.

I thought wxman57 was inferring you guys would get a significant ice event up there if the shallow cold air stays and doesn't deepen fast enough.

[orangeblood]

Wow!!! GFS is insane with all of the polar HP's it has lined up and heading straight towards the central US.

[Metalicwx220]

here is the 12z gfs........snow....

[Ntxw]

12z Canadian is still showing snow late week from Texarkana to Del Rio-ish.

[cperez1594]

Wow is the Twister Data Map showing some snow in the Lower Rio Grande Valley? I know the Brownsville NWS this morning said there might be a chance of frozen precip and local weather mets are saying the same! Wow how things are changing rapidly

[Portastorm]

The Portastorm Weather Center would like to introduce its latest forecasting tool.



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[iorange55]

Well looks like we're in the same position we were last night. Still don't know for sure and I suspect we won't till the event unfolds. I guess we'll check out of the hospital and just go to doctor appointments everyday.


Looks cold for awhile though bunch of arctic fronts coming down.

[wxman57]

The Portastorm Weather Center would like to introduce its latest forecasting tool.

http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/7790/magic8balle.jpg

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Good tool. I have used it to forecast hurricanes. Here's a shot at me forecasting a hurricane in 2005, I think:

[funster]

The Portastorm Weather Center would like to introduce its latest forecasting tool.

Signs point to yes

[DentonGal]

The Weather Channel has moved the freezing precip line further south for Tuesday. Did the 12z models show something new/different, or are they just playing it safe and covering a larger area?

[wxman57]

Although the Canadian differs from the GFS/Euro/UK in that it develops the frontal wave near the TX coast Friday vs. way out in the Gulf, with the low closer to the coast there's much greater warm advection aloft. The Canadian, while it shows much more precip over SE TX Friday PM/night, has our lower levels well above freezing with the 850mb freeze line from NW of Dallas to west of SAT/AUS. So it's not forecasting snow in SE TX on Friday/Saturday. Could be a thin layer of sub-freezing surface air that could lead to some freezing rain, probably north of Houston, though.

Check out the dark black 850mb (5000ft) freezing line on the lower right panel. It's Well to our north and west.

[Ntxw]

IF the Canadian is true (outlier atm with moisture), there's always a trade off sigh. But if it can ring enough moisture to wrap into the low, as it passes overhead maybe some fun for just about everybody! Ground temps would've been well frozen by then so won't take much to stick.

[newtotex]

When do we think were actually gonna have a good handel on this, will it be when it starts falling If the front is just to our north and TWC has Denton with a high of 62 tmrw, is that accurate?

[iorange55]

When do we think were actually gonna have a good handel on this, will it be when it starts falling If the front is just to our north and TWC has Denton with a high of 62 tmrw, is that accurate?

I think tomorrow afternoon we'll kind of know where the line is going to set up and at what time. That really isn't much warning, though. It might not be till the event is over, who knows.