Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

When do we think were actually gonna have a good handel on this, will it be when it starts falling If the front is just to our north and TWC has Denton with a high of 62 tmrw, is that accurate?

I think tomorrow afternoon we'll kind of know where the line is going to set up and at what time. That really isn't much warning, though. It might not be till the event is over, who knows.

I believe we'll have a much better handle on this early week event by late tonight. Let's see how the 12z runs (GFS-Euro-CMC-Ukie) today match up with the overnight 0z runs. And then if it still looks muddled ... I really would defer to the Magic Eight Ball!

[Dustan78]

Is the cold air really going to sit just north and west of DFW for a day and a half? Looking at temps right now, It's cold already. Can the air really just stall like that?

[Ntxw]

When do we think were actually gonna have a good handel on this, will it be when it starts falling If the front is just to our north and TWC has Denton with a high of 62 tmrw, is that accurate?

There's already been a consensus. I don't think much is going to change. Timing of cold air is an issue and storm. But once the models has locked in place, the overall idea is good. It won't do anything significant. We've been on the edge of it the entire time so a little shift this way or that way would have different outcomes I guess.

[Portastorm]

There is one thing which I believe we can hold on to with a high degree of certainty ... starting tomorrow, much of the state of Texas is going to experience a substantial temperature change/drop and it's going to feel like winter outside ... perhaps for quite a while.

[iorange55]

There is one thing which I believe we can hold on to with a high degree of certainty ... starting tomorrow, much of the state of Texas is going to experience a substantial temperature change/drop and it's going to feel like winter outside ... perhaps for quite a while.

Lol you're really going out on a limb :p

[Portastorm]

There is one thing which I believe we can hold on to with a high degree of certainty ... starting tomorrow, much of the state of Texas is going to experience a substantial temperature change/drop and it's going to feel like winter outside ... perhaps for quite a while.

Lol you're really going out on a limb :p

I'm tired of being wrong ... this is a forecast I can believe in!

[newtotex]

When do we think were actually gonna have a good handel on this, will it be when it starts falling If the front is just to our north and TWC has Denton with a high of 62 tmrw, is that accurate?

There's already been a consensus. I don't think much is going to change. Timing of cold air is an issue and storm. But once the models has locked in place, the overall idea is good. It won't do anything significant. We've been on the edge of it the entire time so a little shift this way or that way would have different outcomes I guess.

In that regard, does that mean it is going to be a non-even or we rally just arn't sure yet?

[somethingfunny]

APB for our cousins along the Red River: it's 70 degrees and MUGGY here in Dallas County! It hasn't felt like this since Summer. So don't bother turning on your heater, just roll on down the road!

We'll see if the cold front can slide on through, but the longer we stay like this the more concerned I become about severe weather over the next 48 hours before the big blast.

[Ntxw]

In that regard, does that mean it is going to be a non-even or we rally just arn't sure yet?

Not saying nothing will happen or is a non event. But if you're looking for a drastic shift where NTX is bullseye for a blizzard, it isn't likely going to happen. There isn't an outlier model that even suggest such a thing . Right now seems like a rain to mix event. If the change happens sooner a little more, later a little less. NWS isn't a bad forecast to go by.

[Portastorm]

Tell you what, in looking at the 12z Euro which is rolling out now, those upper-level winds will be coming out of the southwest by Thursday. Seems like overrunning may begin to make things interesting for a lot of us by then.

[Brandon8181]

Tell you what, in looking at the 12z Euro which is rolling out now, those upper-level winds will be coming out of the southwest by Thursday. Seems like overrunning may begin to make things interesting for a lot of us by then.

If you look at the Nam run, you'll see moisture over running from the southwest at 84 hours.

[iorange55]

I'm really tempted to make a drive up to Oklahoma tomorrow, but I don't think I'll be able to do it. I have things I have already committed to early this week.

Would be nice to see all that snow, though.

[Rgv20]

Tell you what, in looking at the 12z Euro which is rolling out now, those upper-level winds will be coming out of the southwest by Thursday. Seems like overrunning may begin to make things interesting for a lot of us by then.

Looking at the euro thru 120hrs it looks like some winter fun for south central, east and south texas

[HockeyTx82]

[txwxwatcher]

Between the hints from GFS and the latest Canadian and Euro runs, I continue to like the trends for winter weather potential in SE Texas later in the week (i.e. Friday timeframe).

[serenata09]

That blue line is looking awfully close to that 10 degree mark.

[Ntxw]

I'm really tempted to make a drive up to Oklahoma tomorrow, but I don't think I'll be able to do it. I have things I have already committed to early this week.

Would be nice to see all that snow, though.

Hires gives us some hope. Just get under one of those heavy precip bands . Quick changeovers. It's xmas eve 09 all over again...almost the exact same track.

[iorange55]

I'm really tempted to make a drive up to Oklahoma tomorrow, but I don't think I'll be able to do it. I have things I have already committed to early this week.

Would be nice to see all that snow, though.

Hires gives us some hope. Just get under one of those heavy precip bands . Quick changeovers.

Lol, I'm not really expecting much here. Surprises happen though we've seen it plenty of times!

Besides, even if I could go up to Oklahoma I'm not sure if it'd be too smart because I might end up having to be there for a few days.

[Ntxw]

It's giving areas just to the West of Wichita falls over a foot of snow. Again Hires that is. Same with the falls.

[txagwxman]

ECMWF doing it again with that weak low Thu/Fri along the upper-texas coast.