Texas Winter 2010-2011

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2544
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4261 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 3:32 pm

Just look at all the cold air up north!!!! :cold:

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#4262 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 3:34 pm

Its going to be an interesting week....

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
225 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

TXZ248>257-310000-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
225 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

...ARCTIC SURGE EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL RAPIDLY PLUNGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND INTO TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. VERY COLD AND DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO POUR
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID
40S. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND
THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. MINIMUMS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
MID 20S WITHIN ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...AND KENEDY COUNTY...AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITHIN STARR...HIDALGO COUNTIES AND NEAR
30 DEGREES ACROSS WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTY. THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WILL LIKELY BE UNDER
A FREEZE WARNING OR HARD FREEZE WARNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREDIBLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING
THOSE TIMES.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SLEET DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR
WINTER PRECIPITATION BUT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR
RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND IF TEMPERATURES BECOME AS LOW AS FORECAST
SLEET WOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION.


RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND ARE ADVISED TO DEVELOP PLANS
TO PROTECT PEOPLE...PLANTS...PETS...AND PIPES FROM THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK.

$$

TOMASELLI/BOGORAD
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4263 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 30, 2011 3:42 pm

iorange55 wrote:18z nam looks like it's an even closer call for us.

And of course Oklahoma getting pounded.


18Z NAM even slower with the system moving through on Tuesday morning. That's 3 runs in a row that have trended slower. Tonight's model runs with the new data ingested should paint a much clearer picture for the Metroplex.
0 likes   

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4264 Postby iorange55 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 3:52 pm

orangeblood wrote:
iorange55 wrote:18z nam looks like it's an even closer call for us.

And of course Oklahoma getting pounded.


18Z NAM even slower with the system moving through on Tuesday morning. That's 3 runs in a row that have trended slower. Tonight's model runs with the new data ingested should paint a much clearer picture for the Metroplex.



Interesting trend indeed. Snow line is crawling further south on the 18z.
0 likes   

txwxwatcher
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 101
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:00 pm

Re:

#4265 Postby txwxwatcher » Sun Jan 30, 2011 3:53 pm

txagwxman wrote:GEM is not snow in Houston Thursday/Friday morning :roll: , keeps it well northwest of town into Austin/Waco.



12Z Euro sure seems to be indicate the potential for something. :wink:
0 likes   

DonWrk
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 488
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:54 pm
Location: Collinsville, TX

#4266 Postby DonWrk » Sun Jan 30, 2011 3:55 pm

Any clue on the largest amount of wintry precip this system could drop? No specific location just like anywhere from Texas to Oklahoma.
0 likes   

User avatar
Longhornmaniac8
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 254
Joined: Thu Nov 18, 2010 2:30 am
Location: Austin, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4267 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 3:57 pm

Ok, so my stupid question is, if the front is getting here quicker than expected, why is the confidence for wintry precipitation so low?

Wasn't (at least part of) the issue that the energy was going to beat the cold air here?

If the front is already in the Dallas, would that increase the odds of frozen precip farther south? :D
0 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2544
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4268 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:03 pm

OMG!!!!! I don't think I have ever seen a forecast quite like this for Denton. Usually those temps for highs never get reached in cold like this right? So it looks like we are in for some fun this week. I would say prepare on some level if anything just for cold.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 6&map.y=67
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22796
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re:

#4269 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:03 pm

DonWrk wrote:Any clue on the largest amount of wintry precip this system could drop? No specific location just like anywhere from Texas to Oklahoma.


Anywhere between OKC and Tulsa. Especially NE of Tulsa where they should get buried. 2 Ft is not impossible.
Last edited by Ntxw on Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

serenata09
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 166
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2008 7:55 pm
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4270 Postby serenata09 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:04 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:OMG!!!!! I don't think I have ever seen a forecast quite like this for Denton. Usually those temps for highs never get reached in cold like this right? So it looks like we are in for some fun this week. I would say prepare on some level if anything just for cold.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 6&map.y=67



I was just about to post the same thing, Hockey! Winter Weather Extravaganza Week!
0 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2544
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4271 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:05 pm

serenata09 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:OMG!!!!! I don't think I have ever seen a forecast quite like this for Denton. Usually those temps for highs never get reached in cold like this right? So it looks like we are in for some fun this week. I would say prepare on some level if anything just for cold.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 6&map.y=67



I was just about to post the same thing, Hockey! Winter Weather Extravaganza Week!


Glad I still have my goaile ice skates. Sounds like I might need them to get around town. :ggreen: If I happen to get out and skate on any ice that falls I will be sure and take video and post it.
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
texasWeather22
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Dec 24, 2010 4:07 am
Location: DFW Metroplex

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4272 Postby texasWeather22 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:06 pm

The SWS says that a Winter Storm Watch will likely be issued for parts of North Texas today :D . Hopefully the metroplex will get some winter weather action tuesday ... at least enough for no school!
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6132
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4273 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:07 pm

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:Ok, so my stupid question is, if the front is getting here quicker than expected, why is the confidence for wintry precipitation so low?

Wasn't (at least part of) the issue that the energy was going to beat the cold air here?

If the front is already in the Dallas, would that increase the odds of frozen precip farther south? :D

Well the front passing through right now is only the initial surge of cold air, and the reinforcing shot comes through mon night. Thats when it really gets cold. Temperatures here in north texas wont be cold enough for winter precip until that reinforcing shot moves though, which is going to make it a much closer call.
0 likes   

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#4274 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:08 pm

Corpus NWS office forecasting snow :eek:


Only 20% tho http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4275 Postby iorange55 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:11 pm

Good lord these forecasts coming out now are the coldest I've seen in a long time. Tuesday is going to be freaking brutal.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthernMet
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 857
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:23 pm
Location: fort worth, tx

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4276 Postby SouthernMet » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:20 pm

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:Ok, so my stupid question is, if the front is getting here quicker than expected, why is the confidence for wintry precipitation so low?

Wasn't (at least part of) the issue that the energy was going to beat the cold air here?

If the front is already in the Dallas, would that increase the odds of frozen precip farther south? :D


First of all, its nearly stationary. Second of all, it's more of a boundary where temps are droping and winds shifting. So it's, in an essence; a gateway to the artic air which is still spilling into Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa atm. This will be the "reinforcing" shot of extremly cold air progged for monday night.
0 likes   
Nothing that SouthernMet posts, is an official forecast,nor does it reflect views of STORM2K.. SouthernMet is just adding to the great discussions on STORM2K.. Refer to NWS for official forecasts.

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4277 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:21 pm

It's scary how much the forecasted Precip shield with this storm appears to resemble the 09' Christmas Eve storm. But it looks like the dynamics are a little different so I think this one is mostly a heavy sleet event for the metroplex. If I had to make a guess right now, I'd say 50 miles on either side of a line from Granbury to Plano then over to Paris for the sleet event. Not sure on amounts quite yet but enough to cause quite a bit of problems for the busiest travel week the Metroplex has seen in a long time.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Last edited by orangeblood on Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

DonWrk
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 488
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:54 pm
Location: Collinsville, TX

#4278 Postby DonWrk » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:21 pm

They are still holding back on accumulations. Is this because they really don't know or because it's going to be a rather large amount but want to wait a while to bust it out?
0 likes   

Turtle
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 285
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2010 9:02 pm
Location: East Texas

#4279 Postby Turtle » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:22 pm

Well, hopefully the next event will be better. Highs here in 30s and lows in 20s. Cold, but it's been colder this season.
0 likes   

User avatar
txagwxman
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 960
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:26 pm
Location: Tomball, TX

#4280 Postby txagwxman » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:25 pm

18z NAM going ballistic...almost unbelievable.
0 likes   
“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 28 guests