Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

This could be a nice overrunning event for the Gulf coast. All the Gulf coast NWS are mentioning it for the I-10 corridor. Models are trending stronger with the Gulf low spinning up with cold air already in place. Should be interesting

I agree Ivanhater. Of course, much will depend on how much the Low in the GOM will deepen. The arctic air mass will modify as the week progresses as it moves southward, but if the GOM Low can intensify significantly, it may be able to pull in sufficient enough cold air to possibly bring wintry precip to areas quite far south by week's end. It will be interesting to monitor at least in the coming days this week.

As long as the models do not trend closer to the coast with the low, that will be good.

[BigB0882]

Will be fun to watch, I hope I don't miss out. It seems the further East you go the better the chances? Am I understanding this right? We are too far East this time and maybe too far West next time. Boo! lol

[Ivanhater]

Updated New Orleans discussion is out...very interesting

EXPECT THE AREA TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ELONGATES SOUTHWESTWARD AND A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. TUESDAY/S COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW FINALLY EJECTS
EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST.
IF THIS FORECAST PANS OUT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO
MENTION THE /S/ WORD IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WOULD LIKE TO
SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE JUMPING ON ANY WINTER WEATHER
SCENARIOS.

[BigB0882]

I hope it works out for all of us!

[Ivanhater]

NWS Mobile/Pensacola updated discussion....taking a wait and see attitude

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY ON)WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE MID GULF...AND A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
US/MEX BORDER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SOME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOWERS MOVING OVER/NEAR THE FA FROM THE SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
A COLD RAIN FOR THE FA ATTM...THOUGH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MOS IS HINTING
AT A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF WINTER PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FA THURS NIGHT/FRI MORN. THIS HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT AND WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS..

[Dean4Storms]

I think it would be the cold core UL low that the 12z GFS depicts that would be more of the wintry threat than the surface low out over the Gulf. It shows this UL Low moving eastward from LA with below 0C 850mb closed off under it.

[bella_may]

So a low of 31 tuesday night in my area with rain but no snow? How is that possible?

[iorange55]

So a low of 31 tuesday night in my area with rain but no snow? How is that possible?

Could be the precip ends before the low temp is reached.

[Ivanhater]

So a low of 31 tuesday night in my area with rain but no snow? How is that possible?

Read the discussion for your area. They said they want to wait before they put snow in the actual forecast until a few more model runs.

[bella_may]

So a low of 31 tuesday night in my area with rain but no snow? How is that possible?

Read the discussion for your area. They said they want to wait before they put snow in the actual forecast until a few more model runs.

Oh ok I thought they was talking about thursday night and friday

[Metalicwx220]

An inch of snow in extreme northeastern florida. Haha

[Metalicwx220]

UUm.....Ivan or northjaxpro can one of you explain why the gfs snow depth has snow in northeast florida but clearly this indicates that temps will be well above freezing at 96 hours.

[Ivanhater]

Don't get caught up on snow totals and position right now. NWS Birmingham worded it well when they state the models will have a hard time with a huge snow pack that will be in place.

IF ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN
PLACE FROM THE MID WEEK ARCTIC HIGH THEN PARTS OF THE REGION COULD
BE IN FOR ANOTHER WINTER EVENT OF SOME SIGNIFICANCE. AS IT STANDS
NOW...CENTRAL ALABAMA WOULD BE TOO WARM. HOWEVER...I WONDER IF THE
MODELS ARE ABLE TO HANDLE THE EXTREME SNOW PACK THAT IS SURE TO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ITS
POTENTIAL AFFECTS ON THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN AND SNOW
WORDING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TOO EARLY FOR MESOSCALE DETAILS
AT THIS POINT.

[Dean4Storms]

UUm.....Ivan or northjaxpro can one of you explain why the gfs snow depth has snow in northeast florida but clearly this indicates that temps will be well above freezing at 96 hours.

You mean extreme NW FL not Northeast.

Anyway, it does not have to be below 32F for heavy enough snow to fall and get an inch of accumulation on grassy surfaces. I've seen it accumulate in the mid 30's when I lived in east TN. It all depends on column just above the surface and how hard the precip is falling.

[bella_may]

Can't wait to see what the 00 model run shows tonight! Should be interesting....

[Metalicwx220]

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LOL almost as many as there was last night. Im staying up tonight. LOl

[Metalicwx220]

SInce there is lots of talk aabout a cold outbbreaak, are we even gonna get phased by it in the deep south.

[bella_may]

The local MET'S are mentioning the possibility of winter weather thurs. Night into friday morning which is very uncommon for them especially it being 4 or 5 days out! Interesting

[Metalicwx220]

Can someone post tonight model 0z runs and twisterdata snow depth if there is something interesting?

[LaBreeze]

No mets in this area mentioning anything even close to that. They are just saying that the temperatures will get somewhat colder.