Which storms will be the big ones in 2011

[Cyclone1]

I love these fictional scenarios. I have a big soft spot for detailed, documentary-style fiction, and always enjoy reading these.

I'm gonna go with Harvey. For some reason, that just SOUNDS classic. It sounds like you'd read about Hurricane Harvey alongside Hurricane Andrew, Hurricane Fran, and Hurricane Floyd.

[cycloneye]

Don,Emily,Jose and Lee stick out for me.

[vbhoutex]

TS Arlene-Pre-season surprise forms May 20 on the tail end of a front in the BOC. Heads North as 50 mph TS, turns NE as another front enters GOM and rides front to landfall as 65 mph TS just N of New Port Richey, FL., crosses peninsula and heads our to sea. May 20-25

TS Bret-Forms just N of the Bahamas on June 20. Weak steering currents keep him meandering in the same area as he slowly intensifies. Finally head NNW on June 22 aiming at Savannah GA. Incoming late cold front picks up the now 70 mph TS just offshore and turns it NE and skirts the coast all the way to the Outer Banks causing minimal damage but dropping rainfall amounts from 10"-15" along the entire coast and inland for 150 miles. Some flooding, but not catastrophic. Heads out to sea June 24.

Hurricane Cindy-First Caribbean forming system forms just N of Honduras and quickly ramps up to Hurricane status on June 30. Heads NW towards Yucatan as CAT1. Landfalls between Cozumel and Cancun as CAT1 85 mph. As it crosses Yucatan peninsula loses a little intensity to 75 mph. Once over the GOM quickly ramps back up and becomes a CAT2 as it continues NW towards TX. As Cindy nears the upper TX coast a ridge builds in and turns her West making landfall around Matagorda Bay as a strong CAT2. Unleashes rains of 15"-24" across all of SE TX from Matagorda Bay N to CLL and NE to Tyler. Major flooding in SE TX watersheds causes $2B damage besides the wind damage. June 30-July 6

Hurricane Don-TW followed from CV Islands finally forms into TS July 13 just NE of Guadeloupe and continues through islands as a strengthening TS. Begins a slow turn towards NW as he approaches Hurricane strength about 100 mi S of PR. Passes over W end of PR as a strengthening CAT2. Continues NW and becomes first major of the season at 135 mph. Continues NW track straight to landfall on the GA coast 40 mi S of Savannah. Maintains TS status almost all the way to Macon before dissipating. July 13-21

Hurricane Emily-First true CV storm of the season and 2nd major becomes a TS halfway between Africa and the islands. Continues steady intensification on W to WNW course bringing her to CAT2 status just N of Barbados. Continuing her WNW course Emily passes over the North tip of St. Lucia causing major damage on both St. Lucia and Martinique. Emily continues on her WNW to NW course across the Caribbean as she steadily intensifies to a CAT5 160 mph monster just before passing along the S shore of Jamaica devastating the entire island. She passes directly over the Caymans also devastating them. Her steady WNW course then brings her through the Yucatan channel just N of Cancun as a CAT5 175mph monster. She heads more NW and takes aim at the TX coast maintaining her strength and forward speed all the way to the TX coast with landfall between Palacios and Freeport. After landfall Emily continues NW to NNW maintaining Hurricane strength all the way to Austin and TS strength all the way to Wichita Falls. Damage from Emily covers the entire Eastern half of TX coming in at $85B before dissipation. Winds measured at landfall are 170 mph sustained with gusts to 215 mph just to the NE of landfall. Due to her forward speed, rainfall, though heavy does not cause major flooding. Emily is finally retired. August 2-13

TS Franklin-Another CV system that gels into a TS 100 mi. N of the VI. As he continues WNW to NW intensification continues to 70 mph as Franklin passes just E of the Outer Banks. His track takes him N and NNE to a landfall at Freeport, LI, NY. August 12-17

TS Gert-Forms in the SW Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica and heads due N. Due to increased shear in the Caribbean Gert struggles to intensify past 50 mph and barely survives the trip across Cuba. With the shear behind her she starts intensifying just N of the Cuban coast and continues N to NNE across the FL straits to a landfall with 65 mph winds over Marathon Key and continues NNE into the Everglades exiting the FL peninsula at WPB as a TD. Once over the Gulf stream she reintensifies to TS status but heads NE into the ATL in front of an approaching trough. August 19-25

Hurricane Harvey-Another CV system which forms just SW of the CV Islands. Harvey quickly ramps up to CAT1 status and heads NW into the ATL becoming another CAT5 monster storm, but only is a threat to shipping as it heads NW then N and NE to finally going ET in the N ATL. August 25-31

Hurricane Irene-Forms in the Central ATL and quickly intensifies to CAT3 status the 4th major of the season. Heads N and NW towards Bermuda and passes just East of the Island before turning NE and going ET in the N ATL Sept. 3-9

TS Jose-Forms in the NW Caribbean just E of the coast of Belize. Heads W into Belize and dissipates. Max. winds 50 moh. Sept. 11-13.

Hurricane Katia- Forms in the S GOM just off the N tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Slowly moves N as intensification into CAT1 85 mph begins. As Katia reaches CAT2 status she begins a slow turn to the NNE and NE eventually bringing her to a FL panhandle landfall at 100 mph over Miramar Beach. Dean4storms weather station records sustained winds of 100 mph with gusts to 125 mph. An incoming front turns Katia E just after landfall and she continues that course becoming a TS just East of Tallahassee exiting at Jacksonville with 50 mph winds. Being a slow mover Katia dumps rains up to 20" over much of the panhandle and S GA. She continues out to sea passing S of Bermuda as a minimal TS and dissipates. Sept 17-25

TS Lee-An East coast surprise forms 150 miles East of the Delmarva and heads W to WNW. Intensifies to 55 mph before landfall at Chincoteague Island. Brings rains up to 10" in the DC area as he dissipates. Some flooding damage, but nothing catastrophic. Sept. 29-Oct. 1

Hurricane Maria-forms in the S Central Caribbean just NW of Aruba. Meanders W and NW for a few days as she intensifies into a CAT2 100mph. Finally establishes a Westerly course and landfalls at Wounta in Nicaraugua. Since the area is sparsely populated there is no loss of life and little damage reported. Oct. 6-12

TS Nate-Like Humberto TS Nate forms quickly 100 miles off the upper TX Coast. Gains strength to 70 mph as he turns NE and landfalls just East of Cameron, LA. Nate finally dissipates over SC MS. Oct. 21-26

TS Ophelia- Forms on the the tail end of a front just East of WPB. Quickly becomes ET as it heads NE out to sea along the front. Nov. 3-7

Hurricane Philippe-Forms in the SW Caribbean and meanders around most of the open Caribbean until finally losing strength and heading NE out of the Caribbean crossing the VI as a TD and becoming ET just N of there and heading out to sea. Max. winds 105 mph. Most unique about Philippe besides the meandering is his timing. Dec. 12-

This is based on almost no real data and certainly is not a wishcast. Hopefully we will have another active season without any major landfalls.

[Andrew92]

Hurricane Emily-First true CV storm of the season and 2nd major becomes a TS halfway between Africa and the islands. Continues steady intensification on W to WNW course bringing her to CAT2 status just N of Barbados. Continuing her WNW course Emily passes over the North tip of St. Lucia causing major damage on both St. Lucia and Martinique. Emily continues on her WNW to NW course across the Caribbean as she steadily intensifies to a CAT5 160 mph monster just before passing along the S shore of Jamaica devastating the entire island. She passes directly over the Caymans also devastating them. Her steady WNW course then brings her through the Yucatan channel just N of Cancun as a CAT5 175mph monster. She heads more NW and takes aim at the TX coast maintaining her strength and forward speed all the way to the TX coast with landfall between Palacios and Freeport. After landfall Cindy continues NW to NNW maintaining Hurricane strength all the way to Austin and TS strength all the way to Wichita Falls. Damage from Cindy covers the entire Eastern half of TX coming in at $85B before dissipation. Winds measured at landfall are 170 mph sustained with gusts to 215 mph just to the NE of landfall. Due to her forward speed, rainfall, though heavy does not cause major flooding. Emily is finally retired. August 2-13

Whoa.

[vbhoutex]

Hurricane Emily-First true CV storm of the season and 2nd major becomes a TS halfway between Africa and the islands. Continues steady intensification on W to WNW course bringing her to CAT2 status just N of Barbados. Continuing her WNW course Emily passes over the North tip of St. Lucia causing major damage on both St. Lucia and Martinique. Emily continues on her WNW to NW course across the Caribbean as she steadily intensifies to a CAT5 160 mph monster just before passing along the S shore of Jamaica devastating the entire island. She passes directly over the Caymans also devastating them. Her steady WNW course then brings her through the Yucatan channel just N of Cancun as a CAT5 175mph monster. She heads more NW and takes aim at the TX coast maintaining her strength and forward speed all the way to the TX coast with landfall between Palacios and Freeport. After landfall Cindy continues NW to NNW maintaining Hurricane strength all the way to Austin and TS strength all the way to Wichita Falls. Damage from Cindy covers the entire Eastern half of TX coming in at $85B before dissipation. Winds measured at landfall are 170 mph sustained with gusts to 215 mph just to the NE of landfall. Due to her forward speed, rainfall, though heavy does not cause major flooding. Emily is finally retired. August 2-13

Whoa.

I pray we NEVER see anything like this happen EVER!!!

[SouthDadeFish]

You used "Cindy" a couple of times in Emily's description btw

[CrazyC83]

It seems there is always one name that everyone predicts will be a monster. In 2010, it was Igor. In 2011 so far it seems Emily is the feared name.

[HurricaneRyan]

It seems there is always one name that everyone predicts will be a monster. In 2010, it was Igor. In 2011 so far it seems Emily is the feared name.

A lot of people want Emily out because they think she should have been eliminated/retired after the 2005 storm.

[angelwing]

Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Rina
Sean
Whitney


I'm not jumping on the Emily bandwagon, I think that will just be a TS. Franklin, Gert, Harvey & Irene stick out for me like 2004, 4 in a row for Florida. Rina seems to be the storm that finally hits NY and Sean & Whitney will be going to Texas.

*None of this is scientific or based on any facts, just a feeling I have*

[Cyclone1]

I think we'll have 23 named storms and they'll all be 40mph subtropical storms that develop 1000 miles east of Bermuda.

[HurricaneRyan]

I think we'll have 23 named storms and they'll all be 40mph subtropical storms that develop 1000 miles east of Bermuda.

LMAO!

That sounds ridiculously stupid but so funny.

[Migle]

I think we'll have 23 named storms and they'll all be 40mph subtropical storms that develop 1000 miles east of Bermuda.

Wouldn't 23 Category 5 storms with 200 MPH winds that all hit New York City be a better story though? They both have a one and a trillion chance of happening

Either way, I don't know about names, but I have a gut feeling that the Pensacola/Panama City area will be in trouble this year.

[Metalicwx220]

LOL! wow....... this year will be the year New orleans. , savannah and New york get hit.

[vbhoutex]

You used "Cindy" a couple of times in Emily's description btw

I fixed it. Thanks

[Category 5]

Emily is due.

Seriously, look at the names history. 87, 93, 05.

[dixiebreeze]

Jose and Katia with Emily a possible early darkhorse.

[HurricaneRyan]

Emily is due.

Seriously, look at the names history. 87, 93, 05.

87 and 93 weren't too significant but 2005 was defenitely the time for it to go.

[somethingfunny]

You used "Cindy" a couple of times in Emily's description btw

I fixed it. Thanks

Or maybe you were right the first time?

LOL! wow....... this year will be the year New orleans. , savannah and New york get hit.

Like this?

[HurricaneRyan]

You used "Cindy" a couple of times in Emily's description btw

I fixed it. Thanks

Or maybe you were right the first time?

LOL! wow....... this year will be the year New orleans. , savannah and New york get hit.

Like this?

If that happens, Emily might outpass Katrina in being the costliest storm.

[Metalicwx220]

LOL That is like triple what katrina did.