Texas Winter 2010-2011

[downsouthman1]

Snow or no snow, this is looking like it will be a predominantly sleet/zr event for the immediate metroplex. There is enough moisture while it's freezing on the NAM and 850c temps are above freezing before any changeover. Probably mostly sleet.

Well if is anything like the one in 2003......bring it on? I know people will hate me for that.

I still remember that storm like it was yesterday. Went out to eat and there were just a few sleet pellets and when I came back out it was the hardest I've ever seen sleet come down and the sidewalk was already covered in it.

Does sleet really have any major impacts besides that it hurts when it falls. LOL

When the sleet pellets coagulate, it basically forms ice. Sleet is not that easy to drive on. It's like driving on small hailstones. While it is in its granulated form, it is OK. It's when it forms ice that the story changes.

[Ntxw]

Sleet is only fun when it doesn't stick to the roads...after that it's up there with freezing rain. Especially with the frigid temps coming it would be chaos. Wouldn't be too bad on power lines and trees.

Mr Stingy GFS has initialized.

[DentonGal]

Just heard something (on Channel 33 in Dallas) about a piece of energy would move across the metroplex on Friday. The word used to describe it, if it happened, was "snowstorm." Anything to that?

I saw that too! I believe he said that a piece of the system that is moving through Tuesday was going to break off and lag behind for a few days, and come through here Thursday and Friday, and he did say it would be a snowstorm! It's late, but I'm pretty sure that's how he described it. He also said he didn't trust how the models were handling the cold air Tuesday, and thought the front would come through much faster than models are predicting.

[Tejas89]

Sleet is only fun when it doesn't stick to the roads

I remember, vividly, sleet skiing via a waterski rope and de-wheeled skateboard with my HS buddies.. behind a 73 VW bug.

If that ain't fun...

[HockeyTx82]

Look at all of the watches, warnings and so forth around the country. What's up with that little hole out by Lubbock?

http://www.weather.gov/

[newtotex]

Sleet is only fun when it doesn't stick to the roads...after that it's up there with freezing rain. Especially with the frigid temps coming it would be chaos. Wouldn't be too bad on power lines and trees.

Mr Stingy GFS has initialized.

Whats it saying?!

[Ntxw]

Look at all of the watches, warnings and so forth around the country. What's up with that little hole out by Lubbock?

http://www.weather.gov/

Lubbock thinks it's northern tier counties will get hit hardest. Blues to the south belong to Midland/Odessa which thinks they're northern counties are prime lol. Bad communication between offices.

Mr Stingy GFS trended further south digging of the shortwave

[HockeyTx82]

Look at all of the watches, warnings and so forth around the country. What's up with that little hole out by Lubbock?

http://www.weather.gov/

Lubbock thinks it's northern tier counties will get hit hardest. Blues to the south belong to Midland/Odessa which thinks they're northern counties are prime lol. Bad communication between offices.

Mr Stingy GFS trended further south digging of the shortwave

More snow for us then, right? I use twisterdata so I am a bit behind.

[downsouthman1]

Look at all of the watches, warnings and so forth around the country. What's up with that little hole out by Lubbock?

http://www.weather.gov/

Lubbock thinks it's northern tier counties will get hit hardest. Blues to the south belong to Midland/Odessa which thinks they're northern counties are prime lol. Bad communication between offices.

Mr Stingy GFS trended further south digging of the shortwave

More snow for us then, right? I use twisterdata so I am a bit behind.

That seems too much of a jump between 24 & 30 hours. Well, maybe not, but surprising change on the 0Z GFS.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW has 100% of rain Monday night, I think polor air will be in here by midnight with freezing rain in metro area before dawn Tuesday, going to be a nasty morning.

Also they have 20% chance for snow Friday/Friday night

[Ntxw]

More snow for us then, right? I use twisterdata so I am a bit behind.

Not necessarily. It just means more precip available. Still dependent on the cold air. Blast it through 50 miles or so faster and you have a much different scenario.

[Turtle]

GFS stepping in the right direction. Wow just 1 more shift like this and I'm getting SNOW!!!

Here is the same time but two different models:

18z
00z

[CaptinCrunch]

Leading edge of polor air is right on the Kansas/OK border. 22 in Dodge City, 34 in Alva OK.

[cheezyWXguy]

More snow for us then, right? I use twisterdata so I am a bit behind.

Not necessarily. It just means more precip available. Still dependent on the cold air. Blast it through 50 miles or so faster and you have a much different scenario.

Hour 36 on the 0z If the front moves through any faster, all of Dfw would be under some heavy winter precip. This could really end up being interesting if im reading this right. Anyone else have some input?

[HockeyTx82]

Leading edge of polor air is right on the Kansas/OK border. 22 in Dodge City, 34 in Alva OK.

Is that faster, slower, or about where it should be at this time? Does the cold air have to stop for bathroom breaks and redlights?

[iorange55]

GFS is trending right if you're a fan of winter precip that is for sure.

[downsouthman1]

Leading edge of polor air is right on the Kansas/OK border. 22 in Dodge City, 34 in Alva OK.

How's it moving that fast? It seems as though someone (NWS or Models; not sure which) thinks the cold front that pushed through is gonna move north again before finally plunging through. I've been watching the front on radar. When it came through here, temp dropped 23 degrees in approx 2 hours. The front is still marching south & is south of Austin. What's really crazy is to watch what appears to be an outflow boundary traveling northwest from the thunderstorms in east/southeast TX earlier today at the same time the front is moving south. The front is continuing, even as the outflow boundary overran it.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... &label=San Antonio, TX&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

[CaptinCrunch]

Leading edge of polor air is right on the Kansas/OK border. 22 in Dodge City, 34 in Alva OK.

Is that faster, slower, or about where it should be at this time? Does the cold air have to stop for bathroom breaks and redlights?

It's 14 in Hastings, NE

I would say faster than models by about 12 hrs.....IMO

[iorange55]

I'm starting to get a little excited......I have that magic feeling again. Still it's all going to be so close. When will that cold air plow through? that is the question.

[pwrdog]

The way the cold air hangs back in Texas and moves more south than east is so ripe for a coastal low to ride up along the Texas coast..... 9/10 times a cold front this strong blows through well into the gulf and shuts off any chance of precip after the frontal passage outside of pacific overriding by the STJ..

I can't think of a better set up to see a major snow storm along the coast as far as the cold air placement...

Now we just need a low pressure system to form on the Texas coast or upper storm to maybe cause a reflection near the coast that bombs out like the atlantic seaboard see's many times a year..

I bet the 1895 storm was much like this setup but everything came together perfectly... The big difference was that the 1895 storm was during the second wave of cold air several days after the first wave moved through.... And the 1895 was an even colder high pressure system..

The 2004 storm was a pretty sweet setup as well.... and if it had been a little closer to the coast might have been just as bad as the 1895 blizzard..

That 1895 cyclogenesis would have been something to see...