Texas Winter 2010-2011

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BigB0882
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4421 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:29 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Agreed BigB. I just hope we can get our snow in 96 hours! And hopefully the 300hour snow happens for you guys! Hey, we can hope!


Thanks! There is a first time for everything, right? Maybe this will be the first time the GFS nails every detail out to 300 hours, haha
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4422 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:32 am

BigB0882 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Agreed BigB. I just hope we can get our snow in 96 hours! And hopefully the 300hour snow happens for you guys! Hey, we can hope!


Thanks! There is a first time for everything, right? Maybe this will be the first time the GFS nails every detail out to 300 hours, haha


haha yeah that would be awesome! I am still waiting to see my first accumulating snowfall in San Antonio!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4423 Postby DougNTexas » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:37 am

I am driving to Oklahoma Monday Morning from Tyler. I am supposed to be leaving around 10 am. Will I have enough time to make it before it gets real bad?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4424 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:40 am

One thing..if this winter storm for Tue, pans out I will be REALLY impressed with GFS ..as generally it picked it up and maintained it from the start...with the exception of a few runs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4425 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:43 am

Where is Msstateguy!!! He would probably be forecasting 2 ft of snow for the Falls and 1-2 ft in Oklahoma! Sure could use some of his snowmaps right about now!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4426 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:44 am

Ntxw wrote:Where is Msstateguy!!! He would probably be forecasting 2 ft of snow for the Falls and 1-2 ft in Oklahoma! Sure could use some of his snowmaps right about now!


Yep, miss him in a situation like this! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4427 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:45 am

Excerpt from tonight's update out of the Fort Worth NWS office

AND FINALLY...THE NEW MODEL DATA THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED SO FAR
AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THUS
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE DAYS OR TO THE
WATCH. WE WILL BE ASSESSING THE REMAINING 00Z DATA AS IT ARRIVES
BUT NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TONIGHT.


Am I missing something here ? Does it not appear that every model that has come in tonight has shifted the freezing line and heaviest precip to the southeast, thus not agreeing with their current forecast packages ?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4428 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:46 am

orangeblood wrote:Excerpt from tonight's update out of the Fort Worth NWS office

AND FINALLY...THE NEW MODEL DATA THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED SO FAR
AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THUS
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE DAYS OR TO THE
WATCH. WE WILL BE ASSESSING THE REMAINING 00Z DATA AS IT ARRIVES
BUT NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TONIGHT.


Am I missing something here ? Does it not appear that every model that has come in tonight has shifted the freezing line and heaviest precip to the southeast, thus not agreeing with their current forecast packages ?


I agree completely. I'm not sure WHAT they are thinking/seeing, but I would sure like to know.

Lots has changed...........
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4429 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:47 am

orangeblood wrote:Excerpt from tonight's update out of the Fort Worth NWS office

AND FINALLY...THE NEW MODEL DATA THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED SO FAR
AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THUS
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE DAYS OR TO THE
WATCH. WE WILL BE ASSESSING THE REMAINING 00Z DATA AS IT ARRIVES
BUT NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TONIGHT.


Am I missing something here ? Does it not appear that every model that has come in tonight has shifted the freezing line and heaviest precip to the southeast, thus not agreeing with their current forecast packages ?


That was earlier tonight before the GFS/GGEM. Only the NAM was fully complete, and as I stated earlier it did not look correct (to me) with it's less amped shortwave/heights. Probably what they went by.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4430 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:47 am

DougNTexas wrote:I am driving to Oklahoma Monday Morning from Tyler. I am supposed to be leaving around 10 am. Will I have enough time to make it before it gets real bad?


That might depend on where you are going in Oklahoma...
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4431 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:49 am

orangeblood wrote:Excerpt from tonight's update out of the Fort Worth NWS office

AND FINALLY...THE NEW MODEL DATA THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED SO FAR
AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THUS
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE DAYS OR TO THE
WATCH. WE WILL BE ASSESSING THE REMAINING 00Z DATA AS IT ARRIVES
BUT NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TONIGHT.


Am I missing something here ? Does it not appear that every model that has come in tonight has shifted the freezing line and heaviest precip to the southeast, thus not agreeing with their current forecast packages ?

I really think theyre just being conservative right now. On another note tho, as impressive as the 0z gfs was, it still held the freezing line to west of the metroplex through the heaviest precipitation. Its definitely a shift in the right direction, but the model isnt there yet. Thats not to say things wont change, and with the cold air up north moving south faster than expected, things likely will continue to change in our favor. Keep your fingers crossed, winter weather lovers.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4432 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:49 am

DougNTexas wrote:I am driving to Oklahoma Monday Morning from Tyler. I am supposed to be leaving around 10 am. Will I have enough time to make it before it gets real bad?


Where in Oklahoma? The bulk isn't really supposed to start until Monday night.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4433 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:51 am

With the models struggling for days to solidly lock into this event, they are keeping their options open to the last minute IMO.

This IS the week of the biggest sporting event in Dallas/Fort Worth history and I doubt they are going to say the sky is falling...until it actually is.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4434 Postby DougNTexas » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:52 am

Oklahoma City is where I am going. If I leave Tyler @ 10am should I be able to drive there in time? Or what would be the latest to leave Tyler?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4435 Postby Jagno » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:52 am

BigB0882 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Agreed BigB. I just hope we can get our snow in 96 hours! And hopefully the 300hour snow happens for you guys! Hey, we can hope!


Thanks! There is a first time for everything, right? Maybe this will be the first time the GFS nails every detail out to 300 hours, haha



I don't know about you but I've seen maps, discussions and forecasts that currently have us in a few different scenarios:
1. 14º and sleet
2. 28º and snow
3. 43º and rain

Soooooo, being flexible and trying to prepare I've decided that what they are really saying is that they haven't a clue other than it will be cold and wet in some form or another therefore in our true Cajun tradition there is only one solution to all 3 possibilities.
Big Pot of Gumbo and enough propane to keep it hot if the electricity goes out.
Problem solved!
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#4436 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:52 am

The GFS is showing some love for Baton Rouge for the potential Thur/Fri event.

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

Question: It shows .11 of SN. Is that .11 inches of snow or .11 liquid QPF which could be half an inch to an inch depending on ratios.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4437 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:53 am

DougNTexas wrote:Oklahoma City is where I am going. If I leave Tyler @ 10am should I be able to drive there in time? Or what would be the latest to leave Tyler?


The earlier the better. Freezing drizzle forecasted tonight for OKC. Could be slick spots early tomorrow and I am questioning their high predicted of 41.

Question: It shows .11 of SN. Is that .11 inches of snow or .11 liquid QPF which could be half an inch to an inch depending on ratios.


Depends on thermal temp profiles. That's .11 liquid equivalent. Rule of thumb is 10 inches of snow per 1 inch of liquid, but in the south usually it's closer to 5:1 - 7:1. Maybe up to an inch translated.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4438 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:55 am

DougNTexas wrote:Oklahoma City is where I am going. If I leave Tyler @ 10am should I be able to drive there in time? Or what would be the latest to leave Tyler?


You should be able to make into OKC fine if you leave at 10am.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4439 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:57 am

I really think theyre just being conservative right now. On another note tho, as impressive as the 0z gfs was, it still held the freezing line to west of the metroplex through the heaviest precipitation. Its definitely a shift in the right direction, but the model isnt there yet. Thats not to say things wont change, and with the cold air up north moving south faster than expected, things likely will continue to change in our favor. Keep your fingers crossed, winter weather lovers.


Well I hope they will change their tune first thing in the morning. They need to give people across the metroplex enough time to prepare for what could be a much more significant event than what they're currently forecasting. With temperatures forecast to drop so significantly, any ice that does fall is not going anywhere very quickly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4440 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:00 am

Good thing that the Steelers and the Packers get to town on Monday instead of Tuesday.

And if the storm does "surprise" Ft. Worth NWS on Tuesday with more intensity and precip type/amounts, then they could get HAMMERED in the media.

Why?

Tuesday is Super Bowl XLV Media Day.
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