Texas Winter 2010-2011

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4461 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:37 am

Anyone up for the 6z NAM to see if it corrects itself? :lol:.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4462 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:38 am

Ntxw wrote:Anyone up for the 6z NAM to see if it corrects itself? :lol:.



I'll be up! I have insomnia anyways.

Check that I might be up. Last night or the night before I fell asleep before it got to 24hrs out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4463 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:41 am

00Z GFS ensemble mean drops over 1/2 inch liquid after 12Z on Tuesday across DFW, which has been the benchmark time for the transition over to frozen precip across the Metroplex.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4464 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:46 am

Check Euro out for late week. Starting to trend more and more like the crazy Canadian!
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#4465 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:56 am

What does the Euro say about any possible snow Thur/Fri in SE TX and LA?
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Re:

#4466 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:01 am

BigB0882 wrote:What does the Euro say about any possible snow Thur/Fri in SE TX and LA?


It doesn't show anything for baton rouge. Maybe some flurries/light snow in SE Tx/SW La. Temps are very close. It's getting better though, showing more each run and colder.

Where does it all come from?!CPC has PNA-/AO+/NAO+ but you certainly can't tell that's progged to be. Seems the cold is overpowering all of the teleconnections.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4467 Postby Shoshana » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:29 am

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:
iorange55 wrote:

That is true. Mainly portastorm.


Yes, do it all for Portastorm. I'll let him play the pity card, and I'll reap the benefits.

At least he was here for the snow last year. The one time I go abroad for a semester, Austin gets its only significant snow in recent memory.

/pity party. :D


lol. Ditto, I'll reap the benefits too. :D Sometimes tho we do get slightly different weather because I'm on the opposite side of town...
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#4468 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:56 am

NAM initialized. You can see the differences from 0z. Heights are more amplified and southerly trajectory. I'll bet 0z was hiccup.
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Re:

#4469 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:57 am

Ntxw wrote:NAM initialized. You can see the differences from 0z. Heights are more amplified and southerly trajectory. I'll bet 0z was hiccup.



I'm rubbing my hands together as we speak.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4470 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:12 am

Hour 33 everything switches to snow on the NAM. That's fast, hardly any zr or sleet in DFW lol. Win! 3 inches roughly I-30 ish N and 1-2 everywhere else.
Last edited by Ntxw on Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4471 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:13 am

Ntxw wrote:Hour 33 everything switches to snow on the NAM. That's fast, hardly any zr or sleet in DFW lol.



Wow, what a change. I didn't expect that from the 6z run. Still a little bit different from the GFS in that it shows the heaviest precip going north of here. GFS kind of has us more in the center of it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4472 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:18 am

NW areas (Decatur, Graham etc) gets up to 6 inches. 1-3 probably I-20 north and west. Still wiggle room. NAM still isn't as amplified as the rest yet. I think there's still room to shift :cheesy:. Lets hope 12z runs bring down the house, not literally of course... :wink:
Last edited by Ntxw on Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4473 Postby MSUDawg » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:18 am

iorange, ntwx I hate to ask... but Im still confused about the various models
Is the NAM avilable for free...is it on the PSU e-wall? If so can you KINDLY point out exactly which one it is?

Thanks...im starting to understand somewhat what the models mean and are saying but confused about all the different ones when mentioned still

Or just a quick link if you don't have time..show me the snow for DFW metro!!!!

*edit* is the nam the WRF that is being updated now??
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Re:

#4474 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:21 am

MSUDawg wrote:iorange, ntwx I hate to ask... but Im still confused about the various models
Is the NAM avilable for free...is it on the PSU e-wall? If so can you KINDLY point out exactly which one it is?

Thanks...im starting to understand somewhat what the models mean and are saying but confused about all the different ones when mentioned still

Or just a quick link if you don't have time..show me the snow for DFW metro!!!!

*edit* is the nam the WRF that is being updated now??



Well http://www.freewebs.com/cyclones/forecast.htm that has all the nam and all the gfs plus a lot of other models. It's a life saver for me.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4475 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:22 am

Pretty dramatic shifts tonight from all the big models. As long as that shortwave keeps digging, game on. NAM temps + GFS precip = model stuff.

Image
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Re: Re:

#4476 Postby MSUDawg » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:24 am

iorange55 wrote:
MSUDawg wrote:iorange, ntwx I hate to ask... but Im still confused about the various models
Is the NAM avilable for free...is it on the PSU e-wall? If so can you KINDLY point out exactly which one it is?

Thanks...im starting to understand somewhat what the models mean and are saying but confused about all the different ones when mentioned still

Or just a quick link if you don't have time..show me the snow for DFW metro!!!!

*edit* is the nam the WRF that is being updated now??



Well http://www.freewebs.com/cyclones/forecast.htm that has all the nam and all the gfs plus a lot of other models. It's a life saver for me.


THANK YOU..thats so much easier to understand from a quick look
and it works in firefox... horrible formatting of the psu site screws up in FF.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4477 Postby WantSnow » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:24 am

Ntxw wrote:Hour 33 everything switches to snow on the NAM. That's fast, hardly any zr or sleet in DFW lol. Win! 3 inches roughly I-30 ish N and 1-2 everywhere else.



This excites me! :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4478 Postby MSUDawg » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:26 am

Ntxw wrote:Pretty dramatic shifts tonight from all the big models. As long as that shortwave keeps digging, game on. NAM temps + GFS precip = model stuff.

[link]http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/3789/11137469.png[link]



Ok..noone mention that L girl's name with the football and we are safe!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4479 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:27 am

Well now it's time for sleep before the big event! I have a feeling I won't get much tomorrow. Bring on the snow!

:cold:
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#4480 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:29 am

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