Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

Maybe the NAM is having convective issues. That's usually a problem when it comes to intense cyclogenesis? Any pro mets want to explain it? GFS and Euro are in line with each other and have much more impressive bands. A bit odd since the NAM is usually the one overdoing precip amounts. It's had a lot of problems today.

[MSUDawg]

Okay..another question I've been wondering about. I've got pretty good eyesight but how do y'all see the specific info for say your town, do you just know that well where your town is in relation to this GIANT state and zoom in a few times? or is there another way to localize (well I'm sure there is with a paysite like accuweather or whatnot). I might be getting confused with the sounding charts people have posted in the past.

[txagwxman]

U know something is about to unfold when I can't sleep...

Watch out DFW/SPS! 12" SPS, 2-4" in FTW? ICE/SLEET 7AM TUE. Fort Worth/Denton you guys are in trouble!

Watch out CLL/IAH/DWH/GGG/SHV/AUS Thu/FRI. GEM going bonkers over Austin now!

Watch out OK for -5F to -10F temps over the snow cover later this week. Could see 5F temps over ice/snow N. TX.

And the ECMWF has more cold...wth is going on!

[Ntxw]

U know something is about to unfold when I can't sleep...

Watch out DFW/SPS! 12" SPS, 2-4" in FTW? ICE/SLEET 7AM TUE. Fort Worth/Denton you guys are in trouble!

Watch out CLL/IAH/DWH/GGG/SHV/AUS Thu/FRI. GEM going bonkers over Austin now!

Watch out OK for -5F to -10F temps over the snow cover later this week. Could see 5F temps over ice/snow N. TX.

And the ECMWF has more cold...wth is going on!

Yikes, are you onboard? . I still think these numbers are a bit skewed. I'm not convinced the storm will take such a flat straight line track across Texas. It's still digging and the negative tilt will loop it around on the eastern end, also the cold air will probably be faster. It's just like Xmas eve 09 except everything is a bit further east/south. Any thoughts?

[MSUDawg]

U know something is about to unfold when I can't sleep...

Watch out DFW/SPS! 12" SPS, 2-4" in FTW? ICE/SLEET 7AM TUE. Fort Worth/Denton you guys are in trouble!

Watch out CLL/IAH/DWH/GGG/SHV/AUS Thu/FRI. GEM going bonkers over Austin now!

Watch out OK for -5F to -10F temps over the snow cover later this week. Could see 5F temps over ice/snow N. TX.

And the ECMWF has more cold...wth is going on!

Thanks for your input... I know things can still change but when you say it comes with a lot of credence.

tomorrow night is going to be crazy

If I had known about this board and resources..I might of tried and changed my major while still at MSU.

[southerngale]

HOU NWS now has snow in the forecast for Houston proper.

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.



AFD not out yet. Waiting on LCH NWS as well.

[ravyrn]

NWS Ft Worth has extended the Winter Storm Watch southeast by a county or two. It now includes the entire metroplex.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO
DALLAS TO BONHAM...

TXZ093-094-103>105-117>120-129>133-141-311800-
/O.EXA.KFWD.WS.A.0002.110201T0600Z-110201T2100Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...DENTON...
LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...
COMMERCE...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...
STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...COMANCHE...DE LEON
350 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BY 7
AM....TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
FALL...THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. UP TO
1 INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. SLIGHT
ERRORS WITH THE INITIAL TIMING OF THE SWITCH FROM RAIN TO WINTRY
PRECIP COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE FORECASTED ICE AND
SNOW AMOUNTS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

[srainhoutx]

Great discussion from HGX this morning regarding later this week...SPS and Updated HWO will be issued shortly by HGX as well...

THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE
CHALLENGING WITH CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA/CANADA BORDER WITH
A JET STREAK COMING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF IT OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. ALL OF THE MODELS DROP THIS TROUGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY WED. THE MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING THE
TROUGH OVER THE S ROCKIES WITH THE GFS/NAM BEING MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
CAMPS BUT CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. BY 12Z
FRI...THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH OVER C TX WITH STRONG QG FORCING AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER SE TX. THE SAME CAN BE SAID WITH THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BUT DELAYED BY 6 TO 12 HRS. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP BANDS TO FORM
OVER SE TX. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS. CLOSER TO
THE COAST...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW
DEPENDING ON HOW TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES EVOLVE. THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROZEN
PRECIP. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WITH THE TROUGH AND WHEN
THE BEST LIFT OCCURS COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT TEMP/MOISTURE
PROFILES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING AT FIRST WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET
BULBING OCCURRING WITH THE STRONG ASCENT MAY HELP ELIMINATE THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS SCENARIO MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE
WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF. THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
WILL BE KEPT AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TO START...SNOW OVER INLAND
AREAS WHERE/WHEN FREEZING TEMPS OCCUR...WITH A MIX AGAIN DURING
THE DAY FRI. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SLEET IN THE FORECAST AS
DETAILS WILL CHANGE AND WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN THESE DETAILS WITH
FUTURE FORECASTS.

[Metalicwx220]

HEHE it stills show it

[wxman57]

Canadian has more moisture over Houston Thu/Fri but air aloft appears too "warm" for snow. Euro and GFS are colder (snow) but with less moisture. It's a delicate balance. Looking like coastal sections of Texas may well see a dusting of snow Thu nite/Fri. However, if the GFS/EC are correct, the Portastorm Weather Center may be too far north (inland) for snow, unless the Canadian is correct.

[northtxboy]

Good morning everyone!!!!! I am ready for the long day and night. Does anyone know where is artic air is at this moment?? maybe oklahoma??

[PineyWoods]

Looks like we may only get a cold rain with some sleet tomorrow before precip ends here in Tyler. Maybe we'll see some snow on Thurs or Friday. Looks like a couple of interesting days coming up for some.

[northtxboy]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
541 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-312200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
541 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTRY WEEK AHEAD FOR NORTH TEXAS...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS COMING EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS ALL
BUT FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FREEZING RAIN...SLEET WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...WITH SOME TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH TEXAS
BY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS A LAMPASAS...WACO...PALESTINE LINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO A BONHAM...
DALLAS-FORT WORTH...GRANBURY...COMANCHE LINE WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW MAY REACH TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE WATCH AREA. ADDITIONAL ICE AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATCH AREA...SO
POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS MAY OCCUR IN LATER FORECASTS. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY...WITH WARNINGS POSSIBLE IF
ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE IN FORECASTS.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL
LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.

SNOW FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE FIRST STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON TIMING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT THIS TIME. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO THE LATE WEEK FORECAST.

DURING EXTENDED OUTBREAKS OF COLD WEATHER IT IS ENCOURAGED TO
PROTECT EXPOSED PIPES WITH INSULATING MATERIAL...AND TO LEAVE
INDOOR WATER FAUCETS SLOWLY DRIPPING OVERNIGHT. OUTDOOR PETS
SHOULD BE PROVIDED APPROPRIATE SHELTER. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO
DRESS IN LAYERS TO BETTER INSULATE THEMSELVES FROM THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED FRIGID WIND CHILLS. IN ADDITION...TURN
OFF AUTOMATIC SPRINKLERS WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.
SPRINKLER SYSTEMS RUNNING IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN CREATE
UNNECESSARY PATCHES OF ICE ON BOTH ROADS AND SIDEWALKS...CREATING
A HAZARD FOR BOTH DRIVERS AND PEDESTRIANS ALIKE.

$$

05/

[Portastorm]

Canadian has more moisture over Houston Thu/Fri but air aloft appears too "warm" for snow. Euro and GFS are colder (snow) but with less moisture. It's a delicate balance. Looking like coastal sections of Texas may well see a dusting of snow Thu nite/Fri. However, if the GFS/EC are correct, the Portastorm Weather Center may be too far north (inland) for snow, unless the Canadian is correct.

We've always considered the idea of a satellite office on the coast ... perhaps now's the time to open that office in Corpus.

Our forecasters are having some difficulty this morning due to a Magic 8-ball malfunction. When asked if it will snow in Austin this week, the 8-ball is stuck on the "definitely maybe" answer.

[northtxboy]

I hope u get some snow this week portastorm!!! you would be like a fat kid in a candy store!!!

[Portastorm]

I hope u get some snow this week portastorm!!! you would be like a fat kid in a candy store!!!

Thanks northtxboy ... here's hoping a lot of us get to see some snow this week! We've waited a long time for this event and probably spent hundreds of hours now ruminating on the possibilities. The next two weeks offer a lot of promise.

[northtxboy]

I hope u get some snow this week portastorm!!! you would be like a fat kid in a candy store!!!

Thanks northtxboy ... here's hoping a lot of us get to see some snow this week! We've waited a long time for this event and probably spent hundreds of hours now ruminating on the possibilities. The next two weeks offer a lot of promise.

I agree.....I just hope we all dodge this ice!!! I would rather get nothing then get ice...but just incase I got the generator out yesterday and set up.

[gboudx]

Unfortunately for the metroplex, this looks like it will be either on-going or starting just when the ISD's should be making the decision to cancel classes for Tuesday. If we're gonna get ice, I'd rather it start in the wee hours so kids aren't sent to school, and then have to risk getting home after it gets worse.

As for me, I'll be informing my boss and co-workers that I will be working from home tomorrow and possibly Wed.

[Kelarie]

Shreveport NWS... Tstorms to snow in one day, gotta love it... have a 100% of rain/snow, less than 1" of accumulation

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ON
TUESDAY...MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND
LIGHT SNOW. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SLEET OR SNOW
ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 30
CORRIDOR...WHICH INCLUDES THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE ADJACENT
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...MINOR
SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO
THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE FELT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH
WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL EVEN COLDER. ANY PRECIPITATION
REMAINING TUESDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH ALL PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION WITH WIND CHILL VALUES LIKELY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER TO MIDDLE
TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

[txagwxman]

I think AUS/CLL/IAH will see snow Friday, cold air should be in place. If the GEM solution then Austin will get it, while IAH will get rain. But me thinks the ECMWF/GFS solution the right one. Too bad I don't have the UKMET.