SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[Rod Hagen]

+60: 02/1800: 18.6S 146.4E: 190 [355]: 105 [195]: 926

If those figures are right this cyclone has the potential to be one of the worst to ever strike the Queensland coast. Storm surge can be a huge problem with Queensland cyclones, and the penchant in recent decades for living on the waterfront, putting far more people potentially in harm's way than when similar systems have hit in the past, is likely to lose a lot of its appeal if /when this one hits.

[RobWESTPACWX]

+60: 02/1800: 18.6S 146.4E: 190 [355]: 105 [195]: 926

If those figures are right this cyclone has the potential to be one of the worst to ever strike the Queensland coast. Storm surge can be a huge problem with Queensland cyclones, and the penchant in recent decades for living on the waterfront, putting far more people potentially in harm's way than when similar systems have hit in the past, is likely to lose a lot of its appeal if /when this one hits.

The Queensland chamber of commerce has already come out and I quote , said "this could be the largest cyclone to ever hit this region" I think that is pretty significant

[RobWESTPACWX]

Another video for today, lots of viewership on the last two so I'm keeping them coming. Let me know what you guys think, I always appreciate your insight.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PT1bmcv7GL4[/youtube]

[KWT]

No reason this system doesn't go on to become a 4/5 on the US scale yet alone on the Aussie scale, system is looking large and impressive at this stage and a big landfall looks just about certain right now.

Going to be a very nervy few days I feel for those in the possible firing line, esp with such a large radius of high winds expected by the models.

Mind you the inner core is a little on the large side, they don't tend to wrap up too well when they are as chunky as that I tend to find so we'll have to wait and see...

[Chacor]

[P.K.]

Brisbane up to 80kts. It will shortly cross into their AOR (160E).

AXAU21 ABRF 311301
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1301 UTC 31/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.4S
Longitude: 160.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [275 deg]
Speed of Movement: 19 knots [34 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 963 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/0000: 13.9S 156.9E: 050 [095]: 090 [165]: 951
+24: 01/1200: 15.0S 153.7E: 080 [150]: 095 [175]: 944
+36: 02/0000: 16.4S 150.5E: 115 [210]: 100 [185]: 939
+48: 02/1200: 17.5S 147.5E: 145 [270]: 105 [195]: 932
+60: 03/0000: 18.8S 144.5E: 195 [355]: 060 [110]: 976
+72: 03/1200: 20.3S 142.1E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 997
REMARKS:
Centre embedded within CDG to give DT 5.0. MET 4.5 with PAT 5.0. FT based on DT.
Improved organisation with rapid development during last 6 to 12 hours. Expect
system to continue intensifying within favourable environment of low shear and
good upper outflow.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

very impressive

[Chacor]

BOM have extended the cyclone watch inland. Massive wind radius expected at the last forecast point (48 hours) before landfall, with hurricane-force winds expected on land with the centre still about 100-200 km off the coast.



IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre



TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:02pm EST on Monday the 31st of January 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from
Cooktown to Yeppoon and inland to between Georgetown and Moranbah.

At 10:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 3 was estimated to be
1610 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 1490 kilometres northeast of
Mackay moving west at 30 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify as it moves west over the Coral Sea.

Damaging winds are expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Cooktown and Yeppoon Wednesday morning, and about adjacent inland parts
on Wednesday afternoon.

People between Cooktown and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.4 degrees South 160.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 963 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Tuesday 01 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[RobWESTPACWX]

It is such a huge warning area, the size of this is so broad.

[Chacor]

Latest RSMC Nadi warning:

WHPS01 NFFN 311200
HURRICANE WARNING 092 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 31/1312 UTC 2011 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6
SOUTH 160.6 EAST AT 311200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.6S 160.6E AT 311200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 17 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRLCE AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHEAST
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80 MILES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.1S 157.1E AT 010000 UTC
AND NEAR 14.8S 153.9E AT 011200 UTC.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 091.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO TCWC BRISBANE.

PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITIES FOR FUTURE WARNING ON TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI WILL REST
WITH TCWC BRISBANE.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 13.4S 160.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 160.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.9S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.9S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.0S 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.3S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 159.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, FUELED BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SOLID DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS
FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES INCLUDING KNES, PHFO, NFFN, AND PGTW. TC 11P
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST- BECOMING SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TC YASI
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF CAIRNS AS A LARGE 100+ KNOT SYSTEM AFTER TAU
48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

125G140... Wow

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/1410 UTC 2011 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6S 160.6E AT 311200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE
MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS. SUSTAIN MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 90
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRLCE AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80 MILES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.


OVERRALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMMS INDICATE
DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH.OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM IS STEERED
WESTWARDS BY AN EASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ASSESSMENT
BASED ON EMBD CENTRE CDG SURROUND YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS. DT =
5.0, MET = 5.0 AND PT = 4.5.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK AND FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 14.1S 157.1E MOV W AT 17 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 14.8S 153.9E MOV WSW AT 16 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 15.9S 150.8E MOV WSW AT 16 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 17.0S 147.8E MOV WSW AT 16 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC YASI.

[CrazyC83]

I think given its large size and wind distribution, the winds might be a bit less than Dvorak estimates. But this thing is so huge the IKE if measured would be enormous...

[KWT]

Wow thats quite insane forecast, with 125kts at landfall expected and its massive size this one really is going to be the one to watch, probably the biggie of this season from the looks of things.

This is going to need close watching.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[P.K.]

Just short of cat 4 now.

AXAU21 ABRF 311906
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1905 UTC 31/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.6S
Longitude: 158.4E
Location Accuracy: within 35 nm [65 km]
Movement Towards: west [265 deg]
Speed of Movement: 22 knots [40 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/0600: 14.3S 154.9E: 065 [120]: 095 [175]: 949
+24: 01/1800: 15.4S 151.5E: 095 [175]: 100 [185]: 944
+36: 02/0600: 16.4S 148.1E: 130 [235]: 105 [195]: 939
+48: 02/1800: 17.5S 145.2E: 160 [295]: 065 [120]: 976
+60: 03/0600: 18.9S 142.1E: 210 [385]: 035 [065]: 992
+72: 03/1800: 19.8S 139.6E: 255 [470]: 030 [055]: 998
REMARKS:
Centre embedded within White to give DT 5.0. MET 5.0 with PAT 5.0. FT based on
DT. Improved organisation with rapid development during last 6 to 12 hours.
Expect system to continue intensifying within favourable environment of low
shear and good upper outflow.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:02am EST on Tuesday the 1st of February 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Cooktown to
Yeppoon, and adjacent inland areas.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for Cape Melville to Cooktown, and adjacent
inland areas east of Richmond.

At 4:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 3 was estimated to be
1390 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 1290 kilometres northeast of
Mackay moving west at 30 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves west over the Coral
Sea.

Damaging winds are expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Cape Melville and Yeppoon Wednesday morning, extending to adjacent
inland parts east of Richmond on Wednesday afternoon.

People between Cape Melville and Yeppoon, and adjacent inland parts east of
Richmond should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone
threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.6 degrees South 158.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 65 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Tuesday 01 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[KWT]

Still not super impressed though with the inner core, its still struggling and IMO these struggle to go above 100kts...but then again with the sheer insane size of it, 100kts is still dangerous for sure...its going to be very similar to Ike!

[Crostorm]

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 6:19am EST on Tuesday the 1st of February 2011

** CORRECTED**
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Cooktown to
Yeppoon, and adjacent inland areas.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from Cape
Melville to Cooktown, and adjacent inland areas east of Richmond.

At 4:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 3 was estimated to be
1390 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 1290 kilometres northeast of
Mackay moving west at 40 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves west over the Coral
Sea.

Damaging winds are expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Cape Melville and Yeppoon Wednesday morning, extending to adjacent
inland parts east of Richmond during Wednesday afternoon and evening.

People between Cape Melville and Yeppoon, and adjacent inland parts east of
Richmond should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone
threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.6 degrees South 158.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 65 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 40 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Tuesday 01 February.