Texas Winter 2010-2011

[HockeyTx82]

What a mess!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Our Winter Storm Warning goes all the way up to New Hampshire!!!!!!

http://www.weather.gov/

That and I think the Blizzard warning is coming down south more as well................

[txtiff]

Thanks guys!! Fingers crossed for just one more push to southeast......

I'm in the same boat as you. Bell County is currently under nothing.[/quote

Fingers crossed for a few more counties to be included with the warning.

[LearnedHat]

Thanks guys!! Fingers crossed for just one more push to southeast......

I'm in the same boat as you. Bell County is currently under nothing.

You sure there isn't a deep depression out around Nolanville? You may want to keep an eye on that?

[Tireman4]

Discussing with Mr T at KHOU Weatherboards to which he stated,

Is this not the wildest forecast ever? From one extreme to the other. Gotta love the Houston area.


Tonight...Partly cloudy early in the evening then becoming cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening...then scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent in the evening increasing to 40 percent after midnight.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning... Then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Very windy. Highs in the mid 60s. Temperature falling into the lower 40s in the afternoon. South winds 10 to 20 mph in the morning becoming northwest and increasing to 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent in the morning decreasing to 20 percent in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy. Breezy. Much colder. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 15 to 25 mph.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming mostly cloudy. Much colder. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Lowest wind chill readings 9 to 19 in the morning.

Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday...Cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s.

Thursday Night...Cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s.

Friday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs in the upper 30s.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of flurries in the evening. Lows in the upper 20s.

Saturday And Saturday Night...Partly cloudy. Warmer. Highs in the lower 50s. Lows around 40.

Sunday...Partly cloudy. Not as cool. Highs in the lower 60s.

Sunday Night And Monday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 60s

[Turtle]

That's for 4".

[Ntxw]

Anyone notice the trends with precip amounts? Still got 0z to fine tune. At the speed the cold air is coming, probably a few more surprises.

[downsouthman1]

Thanks guys!! Fingers crossed for just one more push to southeast......

I'm in the same boat as you. Bell County is currently under nothing.

You sure there isn't a deep depression out around Nolanville? You may want to keep an eye on that?

If you're referring to depressed people, maybe. It's always fun watching people to the North & West have fun, while we get to say, 'Wow that was a bunch of cold freakin rain!'

Actually, I believe by the morning update, the row of counties South & East will be added at least to a WWA.

Not an official forecast!

[DonWrk]

Yep knew they had to bust out the blizzard warnings up there in Oklahoma. How come in the WSW they say only 2 inches but then in the forecast it says up to 5?

[HockeyTx82]

Yep knew they had to bust out the blizzard warnings up there in Oklahoma. How come in the WSW they say only 2 inches but then in the forecast it says up to 5?

I saw the same thing. I think they might be in some kind of mode right now and the dust will settle soon.

[Turtle]

From SHV NWS:

THIS WAS A TOUGH FORECAST PACKAGE WE HAD TO WORK WITH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ARE COMING IN THE NEXT 24
HRS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I30 CORRIDOR TOMORROW.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX NEAR
DAYBREAK...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE HEART OF THE AREA BY NOON.
RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM EL DORADO TO LUFKIN. AREAS
EAST OF THIS LINE MAY SEE SOME SLEET IN THE EVENING...BUT THAT MAY
BE TOUGH TO COME BY AS THE MOISTURE WILL TAKING OFF WITH THE LOW.

[txagwxman]

18z GFS about 1" of snow IAH on Friday...but given the history (aka 2004), I would suspect more with this pattern. Who knows really, still 4 days out.

[johnbasham]

We have put our afternoon forecast package out:










Our accumulation projections of both ice and snow seem to be just a bit higher than NWS. Would not be surprised to see totals adjusted upward if model trends continue.

[txagwxman]

Discussing with Mr T at KHOU Weatherboards to which he stated,

Is this not the wildest forecast ever? From one extreme to the other. Gotta love the Houston area.


Tonight...Partly cloudy early in the evening then becoming cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening...then scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent in the evening increasing to 40 percent after midnight.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning... Then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Very windy. Highs in the mid 60s. Temperature falling into the lower 40s in the afternoon. South winds 10 to 20 mph in the morning becoming northwest and increasing to 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent in the morning decreasing to 20 percent in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy. Breezy. Much colder. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 15 to 25 mph.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming mostly cloudy. Much colder. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Lowest wind chill readings 9 to 19 in the morning.

Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday...Cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s.

Thursday Night...Cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s.

Friday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs in the upper 30s.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of flurries in the evening. Lows in the upper 20s.

Saturday And Saturday Night...Partly cloudy. Warmer. Highs in the lower 50s. Lows around 40.

Sunday...Partly cloudy. Not as cool. Highs in the lower 60s.

Sunday Night And Monday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 60s

I have seen wilder...DEC 1990...it was 82F IAH and 36F CLL, and 16F Dallas at the same time.
I chased the front and it immediately dropped 20F, and there was a mirage over the ground (strong temperature gradient).
Then went through the front again, and all my windows instantly fogged up.

[DonWrk]

Yep knew they had to bust out the blizzard warnings up there in Oklahoma. How come in the WSW they say only 2 inches but then in the forecast it says up to 5?

I saw the same thing. I think they might be in some kind of mode right now and the dust will settle soon.

Yea their website has been hectic most of the day. The detailed forecast and icons haven't been up in a while. They must be crazy busy. I'm sure they will get more into detail as the night goes.

[Ntxw]

Tomorrow is going to be a bad bad day I-35 and west.

[gboudx]

Interesting blurb from the DFW NWS in the afternoon AFD.

FARTHER EAST...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX...THE WINDOW FOR WINTER
PRECIP IS MUCH SMALLER...LIKELY ONLY 2-3 HOURS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUT. THIS MAKES ME A BIT NERVOUS UPGRADING TO
A WARNING...AS A FASTER THAN EXPECTED EXIT OF THE PRECIPITATION
COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS WINTER PRECIP. ALSO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT REALLY FORECAST TO MEET NORMAL WINTER STORM CRITERIA. AT
THE LEAST WE EXPECT THE LAST OF RAIN WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED
BY TEMPS WELL INTO THE MID 20S...AND ICY ROADS ARE A SURE BET. THE
FORECAST WE EXPECT IS FOR HEAVY SLEET AND PERHAPS AN HOUR OF TWO
OF HEAVY SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WARM NOSE IS LEFT.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW IN THE W METROPLEX AND
AROUND 1 IN THE EAST.

[iorange55]

Hour or two of heavy snow with temps in the 20s only comes out to an inch or two?

[orangeblood]

Interesting blurb from the DFW NWS in the afternoon AFD.

FARTHER EAST...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX...THE WINDOW FOR WINTER
PRECIP IS MUCH SMALLER...LIKELY ONLY 2-3 HOURS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUT. THIS MAKES ME A BIT NERVOUS UPGRADING TO
A WARNING...AS A FASTER THAN EXPECTED EXIT OF THE PRECIPITATION
COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS WINTER PRECIP. ALSO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT REALLY FORECAST TO MEET NORMAL WINTER STORM CRITERIA. AT
THE LEAST WE EXPECT THE LAST OF RAIN WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED
BY TEMPS WELL INTO THE MID 20S...AND ICY ROADS ARE A SURE BET. THE
FORECAST WE EXPECT IS FOR HEAVY SLEET AND PERHAPS AN HOUR OF TWO
OF HEAVY SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WARM NOSE IS LEFT.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW IN THE W METROPLEX AND
AROUND 1 IN THE EAST.

I kind of see where they're coming from with this statement due to the models trending faster and faster with this system. But I think this is mainly due to the quicker arrival of the cold front and will thus mean a quicker onset of frozen precip but just a little quicker end. GFS and NAM have most of the heavy precip ending across the metroplex before sunrise.

[BrokenGlass]

Is the front still on the march? I woulda thought it would be near OKC by now, but temps there are still above freezing.

[Metalicwx220]

LOL