Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

Metalicwx220 · #3261 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:57 pm

Ivanhater wrote:That is a foot of snow in South Mississippi! Gotta love the trends

Garbage for my area. :cry:

Trend more south. 10c is to warm .

#3262 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:00 pm

It could very well trend more south, that has been the trend so far and for now the trend is our friend!!

Metalicwx220 · #3263 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:14 pm

Hope it does lOL

......What next?

Metalicwx220 · #3264 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:20 pm

Cloudy High
44°F

Precip
10%

Wind: From N at 8 mph
Humidity: 62%
UV Index: 2 Low

Sunrise: 7:17 AM ET
Avg. High: 62°F
Record High: 83°F (1990)

Showers Overnight Low
37°F

Precip
60%

Wind: From NE at 4 mph
Humidity: 86%

Sunset: 6:00 PM ET
Avg. Low: 39°F
Record Low: 13°F (1917
37 with rain. Weather.com

#3265 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:30 pm

For what place is that? You have to identify a place when you post that.

Metalicwx220 · #3266 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:32 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: For what place is that? You have to identify a place when you post that.

It says weather .com........... My bad Savannah Georgia

#3267 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:33 pm

LOL he meant what city is that forecast for. I assume it is for your location which is Savannah, GA?

Metalicwx220 · #3268 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:34 pm

BigB0882 wrote:LOL he meant what city is that forecast for. I assume it is for your location which is Savannah, GA?

Yeah I just changed it LOL!

Jag95 · #3269 Postby **Jag95** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:11 pm

I was kind of confused during that last Gulf low event where the NAM was showing snow very near the coast while the soundings showed the 850mb temp in the 40s. This time it looks a little closer, with borderline temps for all snow from Hattiesburg north with a sleet, rain, freezing rain mix to the south. Still though, when it comes to snow or sleet this far south I believe it when I seen it, especially at 72+ hours. For hurricanes I follow the 72-hour rule before I get concerned. For snow, it's like the 0-hour rule.

#3270 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:17 pm

Well this is right at the 72 hour mark. That map is for 84 hours but the snow begins falling at about hour 72. If that helps, haha I do agree, though, that snow is never a sure thing, even 24 hours out. I just hope the trends continue and maybe the temps will come in colder and the moisture even more than what they think! It wouldn't be the first time they underdid estimates on a L We can dream.

#3271 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:34 pm

The reason I like this system more is because this is an overrunning event. I also like the trends out west with the cold air moving in faster. Interesting week shaping up.

#3272 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:42 pm

Ivanhater wrote:The reason I like this system more is because this is an overrunning event. I also like the trends out west with the cold air moving in faster. Interesting week shaping up.

Will this be a cold core ULL or does that depend on the strength? Or, does it not really matter because temps may be low enough to overcome any warm moist air from the L? If it is a cold core, couldn't that mean more widespread and heavier totals for this in its path?

#3273 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:49 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:The reason I like this system more is because this is an overrunning event. I also like the trends out west with the cold air moving in faster. Interesting week shaping up.

Will this be a cold core ULL or does that depend on the strength? Or, does it not really matter because temps may be low enough to overcome any warm moist air from the L? If it is a cold core, couldn't that mean more widespread and heavier totals for this in its path?

From the sound of the NWS discussions it sounds like the warm moist air will move on top of the cold air coming in/already in place.

LaBreeze · #3274 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:51 pm

Jag95 wrote:I was kind of confused during that last Gulf low event where the NAM was showing snow very near the coast while the soundings showed the 850mb temp in the 40s. This time it looks a little closer, with borderline temps for all snow from Hattiesburg north with a sleet, rain, freezing rain mix to the south. Still though, when it comes to snow or sleet this far south I believe it when I seen it, especially at 72+ hours. For hurricanes I follow the 72-hour rule before I get concerned. For snow, it's like the 0-hour rule.

I agree with you 100% on the 72-hour rule and 0-hour rule. Just have to see it happen to believe any of it.

CYCLONE MIKE · #3275 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:56 pm

Agree with Jag on this. Pretty much have to believe it when I see it. So much can and will change within 72 hrs and more than likely forthe warmer, wetter solutions. :cry:

We have been burned a few times this winter already with the NWS and models implying winter weather and end up cold and sunny or wet and warmer. We shall see.

#3276 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:58 pm

Another note....There will be a monster snow pack to our North and Northwest after tomorrow. The models will have a hard time with that. I bet the models keep trending colder.

#3277 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:01 pm

I agree, snow pack will play a role with temps. That could be the deciding factor when we are on the bubble with re: to temps. The biggest concern is the moisture, hopefully the NAM isn't off on that. Temps wont matter without the moisture.

#3278 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:23 pm

All that snowpack to the north of us migh just do the trick and allow unmodified air to filter in just in time to meet up with the moisture.....lets hope that is what the NAM is seeing......MG

Jag95 · #3279 Postby **Jag95** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:41 pm

Yeah, the snowpack might be a wild card that we don't see every time. The GFS shows most of the really cold air driving straight south and lingering out in TX. Hopefully that system giving them all the snow tomorrow will spin up and drive some of that colder air in our direction. I agree with Ivan that overrunning precip gives us our better chances of the wintry type stuff along the immediate coast. The last time we had snow cover the ground in my area (well over 10 years ago) was the overrunning type event.

#3280 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:01 pm

I agree, between the snow and ice pack getting laid down to our north tomorrow and the fact this appears to be an overrunning event with an arctic airmass sliding in place this looks to be a good shot at some wintry precip across parts of southern LA, MS, AL and even possibly parts of the NW FL panhandle depending on how cold the air gets.

This maybe our best chance yet.

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