SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[southerngale]

Well, they say the strongest cold front of the season, but their forecast temps aren't the lowest of the season.

hmmm ???

Anyway... they mention "the white stuff" and they call it that. lol

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1127 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-010130-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1127 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...ARCTIC COLD AIR BLAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...

THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY THE REGION GETS TO EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AS TOMORROW WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON COME ROARING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF STATES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL PROCEED THIS
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
AS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER FAST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF FOUR INCHES. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND DITCHES.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA AND OUT
OF THIS REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LATE. STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REQUIRE A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE LAKES AND BAYS.

TIDES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE
NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY DRAIN OUT OF THE LAKES AND BAYS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SHIP CHANNELS WILL
EXPERIENCE FAST MOVING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE DAY TOMORROW NEAR 60 BUT WILL
CLIMB ONLY A FEW DEGREES AS A RESULT OF RAINS...WINDS...AND
CLOUDS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COLDER AIR MOVES RAPIDLY
INTO THE REGION. A HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE LAKES REGION AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO
THE COAST. MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL FINALLY SEE MORNING LOWS
ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THOSE THAT ARE LOOKING FOR THE WHITE STUFF "SNOW"...THERE IS A
CHANCE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ARE ENCOURAGED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR ANY CHANGES AND UPDATES.

$$

JONES/KUYPER

[BigB0882]

I think part of the reason we aren't seeing the coldest temps of the season, even with the strongest front of the season, is because we are not going to have clear skies and calm winds at night. Instead we have cloud cover and the chance for winter precip. That will always keep your lows a few degrees warmer than it could be. Here in Baton Rouge we are going to match our coldest max temps so far this season, maybe even go a little lower than we did a few weeks ago. However, our lows will not be as cold as we have seen because of cloud cover and precip (and we aren't even getting the brunt of the cold, being a little too far to the East). It is a give and take and I think most people would take the slightly warmer temps for winter precip.

[southerngale]

I think part of the reason we aren't seeing the coldest temps of the season, even with the strongest front of the season, is because we are not going to have clear skies and calm winds at night. Instead we have cloud cover and the chance for winter precip. That will always keep your lows a few degrees warmer than it could be. Here in Baton Rouge we are going to match our coldest max temps so far this season, maybe even go a little lower than we did a few weeks ago. However, our lows will not be as cold as we have seen because of cloud cover and precip (and we aren't even getting the brunt of the cold, being a little too far to the East). It is a give and take and I think most people would take the slightly warmer temps for winter precip.

Heck yeah! If it wasn't for the possibility of snow, I'd be wishing for spring temps.

I only mentioned that because in the same update, they mention coldest of the season, but also point out the wintry precip chances, and the forecast doesn't seem to be calling for clear skies and calm winds, but yet, the coldest of the season. Oh well, not a big deal... just thought it was odd.

Anyway... Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!

[BreinLa]

Yehawww bring on da Snow

[srainhoutx]

Freeze preparations complete. I’m worried that my Pygmy Date Palm will not handle another very hard freeze even close to last January. It has finally started to recover from that event. And of course, right on cue, I have new blooms on 2 water lilies in a 2000 gallon fish pond that cannot be covered. The smaller pond (400 gallon) will be covered tomorrow and the heater is on. What fun…

[PTrackerLA]

So Close!!! Literally looks like Lafayette could be on the dividing line of snow/rain. Unfortunately for my SE Texas friends I don't see much moisture on the NAM, but you are certainly cold enough over there. Let's work something out so we all get snow ok?

[CajunMama]

I'm preparing for this cold. Got all my gumbo ingredients and i'm going to start it tonight!

[LaBreeze]

I'm preparing for this cold. Got all my gumbo ingredients and i'm going to start it tonight!

I've got my gumbo planned as well. Chicken and sausage here. CajunMama, do you think that we'll see any type of frozen precip in SW LA (Vermilion Parish in particular)? Enjoy your gumbo!!

[PTrackerLA]

I'm preparing for this cold. Got all my gumbo ingredients and i'm going to start it tonight!

I've got my gumbo planned as well. Chicken and sausage here. CajunMama, do you think that we'll see any type of frozen precip in SW LA (Vermilion Parish in particular)? Enjoy your gumbo!!

LaBreeze: The chance is definitely there. Here's a snipped from the latest Lake Charles discussion:

AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SHOOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL US. WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE ANY
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL AS THE FROZEN
VARIETY. IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION OF SOME KIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE RAISED POPS FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT BUT GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL FOUR DAYS OUT AND IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IS MUCH TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

[Stormcenter]

Below is an excerpt from this afternoon's NWS discussion
out of Lake Charles, LA. In their opinion it sounds like it's (sleet/snow event)
is still too early to call. I personally don't blame them.


AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SHOOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL US. WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE ANY
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL AS THE FROZEN
VARIETY. IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION OF SOME KIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE RAISED POPS FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT BUT GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL FOUR DAYS OUT AND IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IS MUCH TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

[LaBreeze]

Thanks PTrackerLA. I'm thinking that the moisture may be more to our west and north ~ but certainly will be gumbo weather.

[southerngale]

So Close!!! Literally looks like Lafayette could be on the dividing line of snow/rain. Unfortunately for my SE Texas friends I don't see much moisture on the NAM, but you are certainly cold enough over there. Let's work something out so we all get snow ok?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078m.gif

And the 18z GFS is wetter and colder. The Canadian has plenty of moisture, but a little warmer than the others. The Euro isn't as wet as the GFS but wet enough and cold enough for snow. I think I got all this straight. So... I'll take the wettest and coldest solutions from each model and enjoy a winter wonderland.

NWS and local channels now have snow in my forecast. I just hope the chances increase, and not decrease. There's still plenty of time for this to get better for all of us, or worse. *crossing fingers & toes*

I'm making a pot of Texas chili tomorrow.

[southerngale]

KFDM has us dropping into the 20s Tuesday night and not getting out of the 30s until sometime Saturday.

Brrrr

[Kennethb]

This appears to be one of those Texas Classics where cold and wintry precip abound there, while we (south Louisiana and Gulf Coast) get the 35 degrees and rain. I have seen this set up a few times in the 1980's and I think in 1991. The axis of the cold is direct through Texas, along with the lower dewpoints. The position of the trough avects more warm air over us and thus higher dewpoints in Louisiana. While Houston and points east will see the freezing preciptation, we are left with rain. This was simliar to the ice storm in 1997, though Lake Charles got in on that. Not out of the question we could see some light freezing rain towards the tail end (here in Baton Rouge). Though there are always excpections and room for surprises.

[bighaben]

So what's the exact time these storms are expected to get through tomorrow? Gotta ride to school and work tomorrow because the car has troubles working. Going to be a fun week. Don't mind the snow though, bring it on!

[Yankeegirl]

We have a 40% chance of snow here on thursday night and friday.... then me and the family are heading up to RI for vacation.... going to see a TON of snow there!!!

[LaBreeze]

Local mets are finally mentioning "the possibility" of something wintery or frozen. They haven't gone with the "s" word yet and maybe they shouldn't. It's just too far out yet.

[CajunMama]

hey labreeze! NWS has snow mentioned (20%) for friday night

Friday
Night
Slight Chance Rain/Snow Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Rain/Snow
Lo 30 °F

[LaBreeze]

hey labreeze! NWS has snow mentioned (20%) for friday night

Friday
Night
Slight Chance Rain/Snow Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Rain/Snow
Lo 30 °F

Sounds good! I'll make another gumbo Friday night.

[Jagno]

With the severe storms predicted for tomorrow and mere mentions of freezing temps, ice/sleet/snow I went ahead and cooked for the remainder of the week. I've got a chicken and sausage gumbo done, a nice chili done, a squash soup done, a vegetable soup still simmering and a pork roast going in next. I'm all electric and when the power goes, the stove goes with it. I can always heat in the wood burning fireplace but I'd rather not cook in it. From past experience we are the last to be back up and running so I'd rather have than have not.