Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest HRRR is just crazy. If it verifies, then we are going to get absolutely pounded starting around 10/11pm and then especially after midnight.

Check out these loops...

Composite Reflectivity: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t5&wjet=1

10m wind gusts: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t5&wjet=1

Visibility: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t5&wjet=1

Snow Accumulations: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t5&wjet=1

[jporterOCCC]

Anyone have an idea of how much ice OKC may get?

[BlueIce]

:froze: Anyone have an idea of how much ice OKC may get?

Little to none at this point just a ton of snow.

[Ntxw]

I hope everyone in Oklahoma is ready and prepared, this will likely be a historic storm from OKC to Tulsa. Numbers and chill thrown out by the models is absurd!

[BlueIce]

The latest HRRR is just crazy. If it verifies, then we are going to get absolutely pounded starting around 10/11pm and then especially after midnight.

Check out these loops...

Composite Reflectivity: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t5&wjet=1

10m wind gusts: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t5&wjet=1

Visibility: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t5&wjet=1

Snow Accumulations: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t5&wjet=1

Thats a ton of precip in 6 hours the road crews are going to be totally overwhelmed.

I think that OKC may be a complete mess tomorrow. When I was talking to people at work today I was using terms like historic and substantial. They then replied I am sure we wont get anything. So if this is the mindset of the metro we are going to have a ton of stranded motorists and abandoned cars along the roads and highways.

[jporterOCCC]

Thanks BlueIce

[Extremeweatherguy]

:froze: Anyone have an idea of how much ice OKC may get?

Little to none at this point just a ton of snow.

I actually think there could be some freezing rain/sleet this evening with the first activity to come up from Texas, but it should generally amount to only light ice accumulations for the metro. I wouldn't be surprised if a few spots saw higher amounts in any of the heavier showers/storms though, especially as you head southeast from OKC.

By the time we reach midnight and beyond, the risk for ice should probably come to a swift end from northwest to southeast across the metro. Once this happens, snow will become and then remain the predominate precipitation type for the rest of the event.

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks to me the freezing line might be progressing faster than previously thought. Its already entering towards East Central Oklahoma.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just looked at some of the latest model sounding data, and I am a little concerned that we could see a longer period of sleet than originally expected. Check out this warm nose the RUC is showing between the 700 and 850mb level around midnight (valid OKC):

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png

The NAM and GFS are a little less aggressive with the warm nose though, so perhaps the RUC is overdoing it a bit:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png

Either way, even if we are still sleet or a snow/sleet mix around midnight, I don't think the changeover to all snow would be far off. The colder air at the upper levels really begins to rush in around that time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest run of the HRRR is in. It is even more impressive than the last..

Composite reflectivity loop: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t5&wjet=1

10m wind gust loop: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t5&wjet=1

Snow accumulation loop: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... =t5&wjet=1

the I-44 corridor, including OKC, is in the bullseye of the 10-20 inch swath!

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z NAM..



This is just nuts.

24+ inches for the I-44 Corridor, including OKC.

[BlueIce]

This is getting insane. I am ready for it to happen.

[Ntxw]

Ready for it or not, thar she blows!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yep, looks like a little frz rain/sleet getting ready to move in...



the higher dbz values leads me to believe it is mostly sleet though. Might even see some isolated lightning and thunder too, which would be cool..

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

[Extremeweatherguy]

Another insane HRRR run...



And this is only valid at 8am tomorrow. That's right..8am! That means that between now and then (<11 hrs), it thinks we will see 10-20 inches of snow! The snow rates are going to be crazy.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can see lightning to my SSW!

Now have sleet pellets..

[TwisterFanatic]

I can see lightning to my SSW!

Now have sleet pellets..

Awesome! Thunder Sleet!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow, this storm is definitely living up to expectations so far.

Just had some nice CGs and loud thunder during a period of moderate/heavy sleet. Felt like I was in a hail storm! The ground is now covered in white here to the south of OKC, and it is only the beginning. Looks like more heavy bands will be moving in soon..

[SouthernMet]

The waiting game is over Oklahomans snow/sleet coverage/intensity is rapidly expanding/increasing. Have fun, be careful visiblities are decreasing via live reports.

[BlueIce]

Look at that Radar picture.