Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#3281 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:02 pm

The NAM has initialized. Good luck to all of us!

bella_may · #3282 Postby **bella_may** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:11 pm

BigB0882 wrote:The NAM has initialized. Good luck to all of us!

What does that mean? Lol

#3283 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:14 pm

bella_may wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:The NAM has initialized. Good luck to all of us!

What does that mean? Lol

The 00z run of the NAM is under way. This is the model showing snow for many of us in this thread and we hope it continues that trend. It is always scary when it comes to snow + the south because models will show 6" one run and then 6 hours later they will show no snow and temps well above freezing. You just never know what to expect but another repeat run of the 18z NAM would be nice!

#3284 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:48 pm

I don't want to cause panic but it looks like the NAM is warmer on the 00z run than it was at 18z. Opposite of the trends and what we want.

Hope I am wrong...

#3285 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:49 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I don't want to cause panic but it looks like the NAM is warmer on the 00z run than it was at 18z. Opposite of the trends and what we want. Hope I am wrong...

I think it might be about 6 hours slower with everything on this run...we are about to find out. Hour 78 will tell the story for the 0z run.

#3286 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:52 pm

Well, it still has the snow but no crazy amount like the last run. 1-3 inches for most. My area would be about 1.5 to 2 inches. I hope this isn't a trend away from the snow, maybe it will go back up as we get closer. The NAM has apparently way underdone the strength of the storm taking place right now and is behind on temps, so maybe it will be colder and stronger.

#3287 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:57 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Well, it still has the snow but no crazy amount like the last run. 1-3 inches for most. My area would be about 1.5 to 2 inches. I hope this isn't a trend away from the snow, maybe it will go back up as we get closer. The NAM has apparently way underdone the strength of the storm taking place right now and is behind on temps, so maybe it will be colder and stronger.

Ah ha! Check out Hour 84. It's combining the energy coming out of Houston/SE Texas and causing more precip to develop with even colder air! That's a good sign!

#3288 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:58 pm

The NAM is doing something weird at hour 81. The snow would be about over for those of us along the coast from LA/MS/AL but then it begins snowing in SE TX! Very curious what that is, could there be even more coming?

#3289 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:00 pm

The 0z NAM doesn't show as much accumulation as last run, but that's because it slowed the system down. The accumulations keep building into Hour 84:

#3290 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:01 pm

The accumulations could go up even higher once it gets past 84 hours. I wish I could go to sleep and wake up in 60 hours, haha

#3291 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:02 pm

BigB0882 wrote:The NAM is doing something weird at hour 81. The snow would be about over for those of us along the coast from LA/MS/AL but then it begins snowing in SE TX! Very curious what that is, could there be even more coming?

It's combining the energy coming out of SE TX with the energy already in place over the Central Gulf States.

#3292 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:04 pm

BigB0882 wrote:The accumulations could go up even higher once it gets past 84 hours. I wish I could go to sleep and wake up in 60 hours, haha

Even though the timing might be 6-12 hours slower on the 0z run, trend still = good!

#3293 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:05 pm

I would feel better if the GFS and/or Euro would get on board.

bella_may · #3294 Postby **bella_may** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:07 pm

I'd be happy with 1 inc :wink:

h

#3295 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:08 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I would feel better if the GFS and/or Euro would get on board.

Both the GFS and Euro have shown wintry precip for our areas, just not as much. I think the Euro has actually shown a better chance at snow than the GFS. But you're right, both of them need to come into agreement with the NAM if we want a Winter Storm, rather than just a changeover to snow/sleet/freezing rain every now and then.

#3296 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:52 pm

Can anyone explain why the text from the NAM shows freezing rain and a little sleet but the map shows snow?

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kbtr.txt

PTrackerLA · #3297 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:16 pm

Thats 3" over Lafayette, and the result of two rounds of snow :lol:

. Not quite buying it yet, we'll see.

CYCLONE MIKE · #3298 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:23 pm

I'm with you PT. Not buying it at all right now. First would like to see them knock the temps down a few more degrees. Then maybe but right now just think the upper air temps will probably be too warm.

#3299 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:49 pm

Well, the 0z run of the GFS has the snow farther to the north and west than the NAM. Here's to hoping the NAM is sniffing out the cold air better than the GFS. It will also be interesting to see what the 0z Canadian has to show in a few minutes.

#3300 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 7:37 am

The 6z run of the NAM pushed the snow further north and west, which is kind of what I was expecting. Most models have the freezing line right around that point. Still will be snowing (hopefully) along parts of the TX and extreme SWLA coast. We have 2.5 days until this would happen so maybe temps will trend down with snow cover in place. I feel like I'm destined to just miss out on this one! I can't wait to move farther north, lol

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