SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[HURAKAN]

beautiful pic of Yasi

[JTE50]

Radar out of Queensland: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar.jsp?lt=wzstate&lc=qld

You can click on the Wallis Island radar on the map which is much closer to Yasi

[HURAKAN]

possible ewrc?

[Chacor]

If so that would be good news and a retardation in intensification. 125 kt direct hit on Cairns wouldn't be fun.

BBC News report: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12323865

[Rod Hagen]

What does an eyewall replacement cycle, if it is occuring, mean in terms of intensity say , 30 hours from now, when this thing is expected to make landfall?

[Crostorm]

[Meso]

Speaking to a friend in Atherton which is currently in the bulls eye of the current forecast path, people there are at least taking it seriously. People in the neighbourhood are stocking up with food, taping up windows and trying to remove possible dangerous branches from trees. Hopefully the outcome won't be too devastating.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:53pm EST on Tuesday the 1st of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Melville to Sarina
extending inland to Georgetown and west of Charters Towers.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Lockhart River to Cape
Melville and for the northern tropical interior.

The Cyclone WATCH from Sarina to Yeppoon has been cancelled.

At 4:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 3 was estimated to be
1020 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 1020 kilometres east northeast of
Townsville moving west southwest at 34 kilometres per hour.

YASI IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO
NORTH QUEENSLAND COMMUNITIES

The Cyclone is expected to slowly intensify overnight and continue moving in a
west-southwesterly direction.

DAMAGING winds with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on the islands
during Wednesday morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and
further inland across the northern tropical interior overnight.

Between Cooktown and Townsville these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts
in excess of 125km/hr late Wednesday afternoon and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts
above 170 km/hr between Port Douglas and Cardwell during the evening as the
cyclone approaches.

As the centre approaches the coast sea levels between Cairns and Townsville will
rise significantly above the normal tide with damaging waves, strong currents
and flooding of low lying areas near the shoreline.

Flooding rains will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during Wednesday afternoon
and then extend inland overnight.


People between Cooktown and Sarina and extending inland to areas from Georgetown
to west of Charters Towers should immediately commence or continue preparations,
especially securing boats and property [using available daylight hours/before
nightfall].
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

People between Lockhart River and Cooktown and remaining tropical interior
should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.4 degrees South 154.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 34 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Tuesday 01 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/quee ... 5997904763

[Crostorm]

Latest Weather Observations for Willis Island

Wind direction SE,Wind speed 31kts, gust 39kts

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801 ... 4299.shtml

Cairns Storm surge map
http://www.police.qld.gov.au/forms/qldf ... airns.html

[RobWESTPACWX]

CroStorm, that is a great picture. Thanks!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Been knee deep in volcanoes otherwise I'd have commented on this earlier.

Cairns looks like getting a real hammering if that track verifies. Wish I could make it down there but just back from eruption in Japan and way too busy!

I was curios where you were???

Another thing, I got a new video coming out here soon, heads up though I used a lot of the visuals that are being posted on this site. Great tools!

[KWT]

Such a large system right now, its actually quite impressive.

Any EWRC would probably hold back this system at 95-105kts but really beef up the max wind radius and make this system possibly larger again.

Thats what happened with Ike in the Gulf, could never get its inner core sorted so it kept growing outwards rather then get stronger so to speak.

[weatherwindow]

according to bom, 5 meter swell now observed just east of townville....this is going to be a beast offshore as the core of the storm approaches....rich

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:00pm EST on Tuesday the 1st of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for island and coastal areas from Cape Melville to
Sarina, extending inland to Georgetown and to the west of Charters Towers.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for island and coastal areas from Lockhart River to
Cape Melville, and over the tropical interior.

At 7:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 4 was estimated to be
950 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 950 kilometres east northeast of
Townsville moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.

YASI IS LARGE AND POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO NORTH
QUEENSLAND COMMUNITIES

The Cyclone will continue to intensify and move in a west-southwesterly
direction overnight.

DAMAGING winds with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on the islands
during Wednesday morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further
inland across the northern tropical interior overnight.

Between Cooktown and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in
excess of 125km/hr on Wednesday afternoon and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts above
200 km/hr between Port Douglas and Cardwell during the evening as the cyclone
approaches. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will extend onto the coastal ranges
including the Atherton Tablelands on Wednesday evening.

As the centre approaches and crosses the coast sea levels between Cairns and
Townsville will rise significantly above the normal tide with damaging waves,
strong currents and flooding of low lying areas in coastal parts.

Flooding rains will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during Wednesday afternoon
and then extend inland overnight.

People between Cooktown and Sarina and extending inland to areas from Georgetown
to west of Charters Towers should immediately commence or continue preparations,
especially securing boats and property.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

People between Lockhart River and Cooktown and the remaining tropical interior
should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 7:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.6 degrees South 154.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 950 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Tuesday 01 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[cycloneye]

JTWC has it peaking at 125 kts.

WTPS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 156.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 156.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.0S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.0S 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.3S 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.3S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.7S 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 155.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS FUELING IMPRESSIVE DEEP CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ABRF AND PGTW RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS.
FURTHERMORE A CLOUD-FILLED RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE
AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, OF WHICH THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, AND TRACK CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

I think 125kts probably is a little on the high side for a system of this size and structure, but its not impossible either...

Going to be a very nervy 24-36hrs for those in the path of the system.