SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[Chacor]

Pressure continues to fall at Wallis Island, now 997.8 hPa at 0105 local time (about 16 minutes ago). Wind holding at 35 kt sustained.

[Chacor]

0130 local time (45 minutes ago), Willis Island reported a pressure of 996.8 hPa and winds of 37 kt sustained gusting to 47 kt. Pressure falling steadily, about 2 hPa/hour.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing the pressure probably is still a fair bit lower than the winds support due to its large size and what appears to be a large field of hurricane winds.

[HURAKAN]

eye visible in the radar image from Willis Island

[CrazyC83]

eye visible in the radar image from Willis Island

The eyewall still appears a bit ragged in the radar. I would estimate the intensity at 110 kt right now. But the IKE and HDP are probably EXTREMELY high!

[Chacor]

0205 local time at Willis (18 minutes ago):
Pressure 995.3 hPa, winds 38 kt sustained, gusting to 48 kt. Conditions are only going to deteriorate more from here.

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/observations/qldall.shtml For all Queensland obs in table form on a single page (Willis is right at the bottom).

[HURAKAN]

another radar image

[Chacor]

Lihou Reef, which is in Yasi's southern rainbands, was reporting a pressure of 993.9 hPa about 90 minutes ago.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 FEB 2011 Time : 153200 UTC
Lat : 15:23:48 S Lon : 152:24:08 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 929.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.0 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -21.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

Big outer band about to slam into Brisbane and southern Queensland coast far from the centre...

[Chacor]

Willis Island at 0235 local (15 minutes ago): 39 kt G 49 kt; 994.3 hPa.

992.0 hPa at Lihou Reef at 0200 local.

[HURAKAN]

water vapor image

[HURAKAN]

latest radar image ... eyewall about 200 km / 125 miles away ... if it keeps moving at 30 km/h, then it should be there or closeby in ~ 6.5 hours

[Crostorm]

That is a huge eye

[HURAKAN]

latest radar image

[HURAKAN]

Willis Island:

3:30 am local time - winds up to 45 kts, 56 kts gusts, pressure down to 992.4 mb

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 FEB 2011 Time : 173200 UTC
Lat : 15:33:36 S Lon : 151:36:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 921.8mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.8 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -8.4C Cloud Region Temp : -78.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Willis Island at 0400 local: 44 kt G 57 kt; 990.9 hPa.