SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
They also have their version of S2K down there in case anyone is interested: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/947009/228
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:01am EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for island and coastal areas from Cape Melville and
Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and Hughenden.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from the remaining tropical
interior east of Camooweal and north of Winton.
At 4:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be
650 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 650 kilometres northeast of
Townsville moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN
EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PORT DOUGLAS AND TOWNSVILLE.
THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING
RECENT GENERATIONS.
The Cyclone has now reached CATEGORY 5 and will continue to move in a
west-southwesterly direction during today.
Coastal residents within the warning, and particularly between Port Douglas and
Townsville are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS sea level rise
[i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. The sea is
likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY above the
normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING WAVES, strong currents and flooding of
low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible, and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the
area if advised to do so by authorities.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on coastal islands
later this morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further
inland across the northern tropical interior overnight.
Between Cooktown and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in
excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts above
280 km/hr between Port Douglas and Cardwell during the evening as the cyclone
approaches. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds can also occur on the seaward side of
hills to the north of the cyclone and are also forecast to reach the Atherton
Tablelands.
FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during the afternoon and
then extend inland overnight.
People between Cape Melville and Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and
Hughenden should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a
safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
People about the remaining tropical interior east of Camooweal and north of
Winton should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 151.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 924 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am EST Wednesday 02 February.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:01am EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for island and coastal areas from Cape Melville and
Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and Hughenden.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from the remaining tropical
interior east of Camooweal and north of Winton.
At 4:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be
650 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 650 kilometres northeast of
Townsville moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN
EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PORT DOUGLAS AND TOWNSVILLE.
THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING
RECENT GENERATIONS.
The Cyclone has now reached CATEGORY 5 and will continue to move in a
west-southwesterly direction during today.
Coastal residents within the warning, and particularly between Port Douglas and
Townsville are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS sea level rise
[i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. The sea is
likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY above the
normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING WAVES, strong currents and flooding of
low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible, and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the
area if advised to do so by authorities.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on coastal islands
later this morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further
inland across the northern tropical interior overnight.
Between Cooktown and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in
excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts above
280 km/hr between Port Douglas and Cardwell during the evening as the cyclone
approaches. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds can also occur on the seaward side of
hills to the north of the cyclone and are also forecast to reach the Atherton
Tablelands.
FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during the afternoon and
then extend inland overnight.
People between Cape Melville and Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and
Hughenden should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a
safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
People about the remaining tropical interior east of Camooweal and north of
Winton should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 151.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 924 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am EST Wednesday 02 February.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1905 UTC 01/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 151.7E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [241 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [29 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 115 knots [215 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 160 knots [295 km/h]
Central Pressure: 924 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 250 nm [465 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 280 nm [520 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [70 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm [405 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0600: 16.8S 148.1E: 050 [095]: 115 [215]: 924
+24: 02/1800: 17.9S 144.7E: 080 [150]: 065 [120]: 976
+36: 03/0600: 19.3S 141.6E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 993
+48: 03/1800: 20.3S 139.1E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 999
+60: 04/0600: 21.6S 136.8E: 160 [295]: 025 [045]: 1001
+72: 04/1800: 21.5S 134.7E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1000
REMARKS:
Yasi has developed over the last 12 hours. DT based on eye pattern with white
surround with an off white eye average over 3 hours.
Forecast to remain at this intensity until landfall in a low shear and
favourable environment.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1905 UTC 01/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 151.7E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [241 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [29 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 115 knots [215 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 160 knots [295 km/h]
Central Pressure: 924 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 250 nm [465 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 280 nm [520 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [70 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm [405 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0600: 16.8S 148.1E: 050 [095]: 115 [215]: 924
+24: 02/1800: 17.9S 144.7E: 080 [150]: 065 [120]: 976
+36: 03/0600: 19.3S 141.6E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 993
+48: 03/1800: 20.3S 139.1E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 999
+60: 04/0600: 21.6S 136.8E: 160 [295]: 025 [045]: 1001
+72: 04/1800: 21.5S 134.7E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1000
REMARKS:
Yasi has developed over the last 12 hours. DT based on eye pattern with white
surround with an off white eye average over 3 hours.
Forecast to remain at this intensity until landfall in a low shear and
favourable environment.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:01am EST on Wednesday the 2nd of February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for island and coastal areas from Cape Melville and
Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and Hughenden.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from the remaining tropical
interior east of Camooweal and north of Winton.
At 4:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 5 was estimated to be
650 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 650 kilometres northeast of
Townsville moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
SEVERE TC YASI IS A LARGE AND VERY POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES AN
EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PORT DOUGLAS AND TOWNSVILLE.
THIS IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE LIFE THREATENING THAN ANY EXPERIENCED DURING
RECENT GENERATIONS.
The Cyclone has now reached CATEGORY 5 and will continue to move in a
west-southwesterly direction during today.
Coastal residents within the warning, and particularly between Port Douglas and
Townsville are specifically warned of an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS sea level rise
[i.e. storm tide] as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. The sea is
likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be VERY DANGEROUSLY above the
normal tide, with EXTREMELY DAMAGING WAVES, strong currents and flooding of
low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible, and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the
area if advised to do so by authorities.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on coastal islands
later this morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further
inland across the northern tropical interior overnight.
Between Cooktown and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in
excess of 125km/hr during the afternoon and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts above
280 km/hr between Port Douglas and Cardwell during the evening as the cyclone
approaches. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds can also occur on the seaward side of
hills to the north of the cyclone and are also forecast to reach the Atherton
Tablelands.
FLOODING RAINS will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during the afternoon and
then extend inland overnight.
People between Cape Melville and Sarina, extending inland to Croydon and
Hughenden should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a
safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
People about the remaining tropical interior east of Camooweal and north of
Winton should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 151.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 924 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am EST Wednesday 02 February.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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Floyd 1999 · Irene 2011 · Sandy 2012
Cairns local news coverage:
http://www.cairns.com.au/cyclone
"Up to 30,000 people were last night ordered to evacuate their homes and 250 hospital patients were flown out of the city with cyclone Yasi set to cross the coast between Cairns and Innisfail tonight or early tomorrow"
http://www.cairns.com.au/cyclone
"Up to 30,000 people were last night ordered to evacuate their homes and 250 hospital patients were flown out of the city with cyclone Yasi set to cross the coast between Cairns and Innisfail tonight or early tomorrow"
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Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
I see a whobble to the right of track - now I'd say Radar at Willis is looking more likely to get the eye. Wonder how long the radar will stay on line??? Anybody been to Willis?
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Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR411.loop.shtml
The eye is showing now on Wallis Island 512km composite radar (6am AEST), and is roughly 130 km east of the radar facility at this time. The wind speed there can be obtained at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94299.shtml
and at 5:30 am AEST, was 95km/h with 124km/h gusts (51kts / 67kts).
The eye is showing now on Wallis Island 512km composite radar (6am AEST), and is roughly 130 km east of the radar facility at this time. The wind speed there can be obtained at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94299.shtml
and at 5:30 am AEST, was 95km/h with 124km/h gusts (51kts / 67kts).
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Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Willis_Island.JPG/800px-Willis_Island.JPG
Judging by this photo, I would expect the storm surge to make the island a bit smaller than the photo shows. The wind might mess up the facility a bit, too.
Judging by this photo, I would expect the storm surge to make the island a bit smaller than the photo shows. The wind might mess up the facility a bit, too.
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Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
I'm guessing that the storm surge will be a significant issue - there's plenty of water out there in the Coral Sea to lift up. Mandatory evacuation notices have been given. Tens of thousands of people have evacuated so far.
ABC (Australia) news:
"Emergency Management Queensland says a storm surge that inundated parts of Mackay in 1918 killed 13 people."
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/02/3127394.htm?section=justin
ABC (Australia) news:
"Emergency Management Queensland says a storm surge that inundated parts of Mackay in 1918 killed 13 people."
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/02/3127394.htm?section=justin
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Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
Oh, and I understand the four staff normally on Willis Island were evacuated yesterday. (I don't have the URL, sorry.)
Queensland Police have published storm surge prediction maps. I'll see whether I can find the URLs.
Queensland Police have published storm surge prediction maps. I'll see whether I can find the URLs.
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Re: SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
I have no doubt Wallis Island will go under here in a few hours. Wonder if there is anyone there at the station or if it's automated.
Ah, ok, thanks for the post above.
Ah, ok, thanks for the post above.
Last edited by JTE50 on Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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