Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#3321 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:50 pm

12z Euro...Holy Smokes!! Arctic blast for next week

-10 line WELL into the Gulf, -12 line encompassing virtually the entire Florida panhandle. I don't think I have seen a model run that cold before! :eek:

#3322 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:53 pm

Brrr! I don't know if I buy it. Euro showed almost a carbon copy of that almost 2 weeks ago and then it all stayed in TX. Hopefully this will come our way. However, the GFS seems to even be on the same page as they show it getting down to 20 in Baton Rouge on the 8th! That is really cold coming from the GFS. So those two models are both seeing really cold air coming.

I also remember hearing that reinforcing shots usually produce the record winter storms for those along the coast. I guess a combination of already having cold air in place, snow pack up north and a last shot of cold air is enough to keep it plenty cold. Now, we just need a Low to bomb out in the Gulf!

bella_may · #3323 Postby **bella_may** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:00 pm

Yay! Another potential snow storm to track! Gotta love it lol

#3324 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:02 pm

There has been so much arctic air bottled up in Canada for the past couple of weeks. So, it is no surprise to see the model guidance latching on to bringing that cold stuff down once again. The first surge is now occuring across the Plains down into the entire state of TX.

This major brunt of this current arctic surge will miss the SE U.S. as the upper level southwesterly flow will shunt the coldest of the air away from the SE U.S. up through the TN and Ohio Valley and later into the Northeast U.S. later this week.

This next arctic surge may penetrate deep into the SE U.S. as the trajectory according to the Euro looks to drive the polar jet once again straight from northwest to southeast, bringing that arctic air right into the region. This was the pattern we had for December and most of January.

Just have to pay attention to the models to see if they continue this trend for late next week.

#3325 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:20 pm

18z NAM has the snow beginning at hour 39, much closer to the coast, all the way to the coast in MS, AL and deep into LA, even New Orleans and points South. Curious to see how this run plays out. Waiting on the rest to load.

#3326 Postby **MississippiWx** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:22 pm

Once this storm moves through today, there is going to be snow on the ground from Dallas to Northern Arkansas through Kentucky and all the way up to the Northeast (then all the way to the Arctic!). It's going to be one MASSIVE snow pack and I just have to believe that the temperatures are going to respond accordingly. I'm not sure if the models are fully comprehending this small, but very important detail.

#3327 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:23 pm

45 hours

#3328 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:31 pm

NAM is looking MUCH better, at least for my backyard! Looking about 3 inches so far and still going, this is at hour 54. I really hope this verifies! It has moved the bulk of the snow considerable south and east. Includes almost all of south LA and south MS, plus extreme SETX (beaumont area) then going into south AL.

#3329 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:34 pm

57 hours! Nice! I feel like I'm at the casino and I just won, can I go ahead and cash out? lol

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Woah, here it comes Northern LA!

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#3330 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:36 pm

bella_may · #3331 Postby **bella_may** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:41 pm

Amazing! Now maybe the gfs and euro will jump on board as well!!

#3332 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:41 pm

I am not surprised to see the NAM come in colder. There will be a very substantial snowpack just to the north/northwest of the LA, MS, and AL.

I think BigB0882 you stand a decent chance of seeing wintry precip at it stands now in a couple of days.

#3333 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:45 pm

Looks better and better, northjaxpro. BTR is still right on the edge of all or nothing, could be 3 inches but if it is even a little off then it could be nothing. Will be one of those things where I'm sitting at my window having to watch because there will be no way to know before hand. Hopefully it will surprise us all and be a good event. Looks like my family in Beaumont, TX could be in for a fun time!

#3334 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:48 pm

75 hours

#3335 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:56 pm

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the 18z Nam has yellow showing up over Mobile Alabama.

That is 6 inches of snow for Mobile, Alabama! These trends are a beautiful thing

#3336 Postby **MississippiWx** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:56 pm

NAM snow accumulations on the RaleighWx site show 8-9 inches through 66 hours in part of SE Mississippi and parts of Louisiana as well.

Metalicwx220 · #3337 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:57 pm

Thats bull..... Geoergia aint gonna see nothing.

bella_may · #3338 Postby **bella_may** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:59 pm

When does the new euro and gfs models come out? I really hope they get on board with this!

#3339 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:02 pm

Another of Nam snowfall accum.

54 hours

72 hours

PTrackerLA · #3340 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:02 pm

Oh wow, the 18z NAM showing 2-3" for Lafayette!

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